Increasing prevalence of asthma diagnosis and symptoms in children is confined to mild symptoms

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of childhood asthma is increasing but few studies have investigated trends in asthma severity. We investigated trends in asthma diagnosis and symptom morbidity between an eight year time period in a paired prevalence study. METHODS: All children in one single school year aged 8-9 years in the city of Sheffield were given a parent respondent questionnaire in 1991 and 1999 based on questions from the International Survey of Asthma and Allergy in Children (ISAAC). Data were obtained regarding the prevalence of asthma and wheeze and current (12 month) prevalences of wheeze attacks, speech limiting wheeze, nocturnal cough and wheeze, and exertional symptoms. RESULTS: The response rates in 1991 and 1999 were 4580/5321 (85.3%) and 5011/6021 (83.2%), respectively. There were significant increases between the two surveys in the prevalence of asthma ever (19.9% v 29.7%, mean difference 11.9%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.16 to 13.57, p<0.001), current asthma (10.3% v 13.0%, mean difference 2.7%, 95% CI 1.44 to 4.03, p<0.001), wheeze ever (30.3% v 35.8%, mean difference 5.7%, 95% CI 3.76 to 7.56, p<0.001), wheeze in the previous 12 months (17.0% v 19.4%, mean difference 2.5, 95% CI 0.95 to 4.07, p<0.01), and reporting of medication use (16.9% v 20%, mean difference 3.0%, 95% CI 1.46 to 4.62, p<0.001). There were also significant increases in reported hayfever and eczema diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic labelling of asthma and lifetime prevalence of wheeze has increased. The current 12 month point prevalence of wheeze has increased but this is confined to occasional symptoms. The increased medication rate may be responsible for the static prevalence of severe asthma symptoms. The significant proportion of children receiving medication but reporting no asthma symptoms identified from our 1999 survey suggests that some children are being inappropriately treated or overtreated

Parsimonious Kernel Fisher Discrimination

By applying recent results in optimization transfer, a new algorithm for kernel Fisher Discriminant Analysis is provided that makes use of a non-smooth penalty on the coefficients to provide a parsimonious solution. The algorithm is simple, easily programmed and is shown to perform as well as or better than a number of leading machine learning algorithms on a substantial benchmark. It is then applied to a set of extreme small-sample-size problems in virtual screening where it is found to be less accurate than a currently leading approach but is still comparable in a number of cases

A Coronal Hole's Effects on CME Shock Morphology in the Inner Heliosphere

We use STEREO imagery to study the morphology of a shock driven by a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) launched from the Sun on 2011 March 7. The source region of the CME is located just to the east of a coronal hole. The CME ejecta is deflected away from the hole, in contrast with the shock, which readily expands into the fast outflow from the coronal hole. The result is a CME with ejecta not well centered within the shock surrounding it. The shock shape inferred from the imaging is compared with in situ data at 1 AU, where the shock is observed near Earth by the Wind spacecraft, and at STEREO-A. Shock normals computed from the in situ data are consistent with the shock morphology inferred from imaging.Comment: to appear in The Astrophysical Journa

Rapid Oscillations in Cataclysmic Variables. XV. HT Camelopardalis (= RX J0757.0+6306)

We present photometry and spectroscopy of HT Camelopardalis, a recently discovered X-ray-bright cataclysmic variable. The spectrum shows bright lines of H, He I, and He II, all moving with a period of 0.059712(1) d, which we interpret as the orbital period. The star's brightness varies with a strict period of 515.0592(2) s, and a mean full amplitude of 0.11 mag. These properties qualify it as a /bona fide/ DQ Herculis star (intermediate polar) -- in which the magnetism of the rapidly rotating white dwarf channels accretion flow to the surface. Normally at V=17.8, the star shows rare and very brief outbursts to V=12-13. We observed one in December 2001, and found that the 515 s pulse amplitude had increased by a factor of ~100 (in flux units). A transient orbital signal may also have appeared.Comment: PDF, 19 pages, 3 tables, 6 figures; accepted, in press, to appear June 2002, PASP; more info at http://cba.phys.columbia.edu

Development of Aluminum LEKIDs for Balloon-Borne Far-IR Spectroscopy

We are developing lumped-element kinetic inductance detectors (LEKIDs) designed to achieve background-limited sensitivity for far-infrared (FIR) spectroscopy on a stratospheric balloon. The Spectroscopic Terahertz Airborne Receiver for Far-InfraRed Exploration (STARFIRE) will study the evolution of dusty galaxies with observations of the [CII] 158 $\mu$m and other atomic fine-structure transitions at $z=0.5-1.5$, both through direct observations of individual luminous infrared galaxies, and in blind surveys using the technique of line intensity mapping. The spectrometer will require large format ($\sim$1800 detectors) arrays of dual-polarization sensitive detectors with NEPs of $1 \times 10^{-17}$ W Hz$^{-1/2}$. The low-volume LEKIDs are fabricated with a single layer of aluminum (20 nm thick) deposited on a crystalline silicon wafer, with resonance frequencies of $100-250$ MHz. The inductor is a single meander with a linewidth of 0.4 $\mu$m, patterned in a grid to absorb optical power in both polarizations. The meander is coupled to a circular waveguide, fed by a conical feedhorn. Initial testing of a small array prototype has demonstrated good yield, and a median NEP of $4 \times 10^{-18}$ W Hz$^{-1/2}$.Comment: accepted for publication in Journal of Low Temperature Physic

Molecular characterization of a novel Rickettsia species from Ixodes scapularis in Texas.

A novel Rickettsia species of undetermined pathogenicity was detected in Ixodes scapularis. DNA sequencing showed the highest nucleotide sequence similarities with R. australis for the 17 kDa gene, R. helvetica for gltA, and R. montana for rompA. The new organism, provisionally designated as genotype Cooleyi, is highly divergent in three conserved genes from recognized Rickettsia species

Switching barrier scaling near bifurcation points for non-Gaussian noise

We study noise-induced switching of a system close to bifurcation parameter values where the number of stable states changes. For non-Gaussian noise, the switching exponent, which gives the logarithm of the switching rate, displays a non-power-law dependence on the distance to the bifurcation point. This dependence is found for Poisson noise. Even weak additional Gaussian noise dominates switching sufficiently close to the bifurcation point, leading to a crossover in the behavior of the switching exponent

Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB 3 GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field Bz observations at L1.The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast

Comprehensive Analysis of Coronal Mass Ejection Mass and Energy Properties Over a Full Solar Cycle

The LASCO coronagraphs, in continuous operation since 1995, have observed the evolution of the solar corona and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) over a full solar cycle with high quality images and regular cadence. This is the first time that such a dataset becomes available and constitutes a unique resource for the study of CMEs. In this paper, we present a comprehensive investigation of the solar cycle dependence on the CME mass and energy over a full solar cycle (1996-2009) including the first in-depth discussion of the mass and energy analysis methods and their associated errors. Our analysis provides several results worthy of further studies. It demonstrates the possible existence of two event classes; 'normal' CMEs reaching constant mass for $>10$ R_{\sun} and 'pseudo' CMEs which disappear in the C3 FOV. It shows that the mass and energy properties of CME reach constant levels, and therefore should be measured, only above \sim 10 R_\sun. The mass density (g/R_\sun^2) of CMEs varies relatively little ($<$ order of magnitude) suggesting that the majority of the mass originates from a small range in coronal heights. We find a sudden reduction in the CME mass in mid-2003 which may be related to a change in the electron content of the large scale corona and we uncover the presence of a six-month periodicity in the ejected mass from 2003 onwards.Comment: 42 pages, 16 figures, To appear in Astrophysical Journa