PENGARUH JUS BUAH SEMANGKA MERAH (Citrullus vulgaris) TERHADAP KERUSAKAN SEL GINJAL TIKUS PUTIH (Rattus norvegicus) YANG DIINDUKSI PARASETAMOL

ABSTRAK R. Bijak P. N. S. P., G.0007134, 2010. Pengaruh Jus Buah Semangka Merah (Citrullus vulgaris) terhadap Kerusakan Sel Ginjal Tikus Putih (Rattus norvegicus) yang Diinduksi Parasetamol. Skripsi, Fakultas Kedokteran, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta. Tujuan Penelitian: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah pemberian jus buah semangka merah dapat mencegah kerusakan sel ginjal tikus putih yang diinduksi parasetamol dan apakah peningkatan dosis jus buah semangka merah dapat meningkatkan efek proteksi terhadap kerusakan sel ginjal tikus putih yang diinduksi parasetamol. Metode Penelitian: Penelitian ini bersifat eksperimental laboratorik dengan the post test only controlled group design. Sampel berupa tikus putih jantan, galur Wistar berumur + 3 bulan dengan berat badan + 200 gr. Sampel dengan teknik incidental sampling sebanyak 28 ekor dibagi dalam 4 kelompok, masing-masing kelompok terdiri dari 7 ekor tikus putih. Kelompok kontrol (K) dan kelompok perlakuan 1 (P1), tikus putih diberi aquades selama 14 hari. Kelompok perlakuan 2 (P2), tikus putih diberi jus buah semangka merah dosis I selama 14 hari. Kelompok perlakuan 3 (P3), tikus putih diberi jus buah semangka dosis II selama 14 hari. Parasetamol dosis 291,6 mg/200 gr BB tikus putih diberikan pada kelompok P1, P2, dan P3 pada hari ke-12, 13, dan 14. Hari ke-15, tikus putih dikorbankan kemudian ginjal tikus putih dibuat preparat dengan metode blok parafin dan pengecatan Hematoksilin Eosin (HE). Gambaran histologis ginjal diamati dan dinilai berdasarkan jumlah kerusakan histologis yang berupa penjumlahan inti pyknosis, karyorrhexis dan karyolysis. Data dianalisis dengan menggunakan uji One-Way ANOVA (α = 0,05) dan dilanjutkan dengan uji Post Hoc Multiple Comparisons (LSD) (α = 0,05). Hasil Penelitian: Hasil uji One-Way ANOVA menunjukkan adanya perbedaan yang bermakna antara keempat kelompok. Hasil uji LSD menunjukkan adanya perbedaan yang bermakna antara K-P1, K-P2, K-P3, P1-P2, P1-P3, dan P2-P3. Simpulan Penelitian: Jus buah semangka merah dapat mengurangi kerusakan sel ginjal tikus putih yang diinduksi parasetamol dan peningkatan dosis jus buah semangka merah dapat meningkatkan efek proteksi terhadap kerusakan sel ginjal tikus putih meskipun tidak dapat mencapai derajat normal. Kata kunci: jus buah semangka merah, parasetamol, kerusakan sel ginjal tikus putih. ABSTRACT R. Bijak P. N. S. P., G.0007134, 2010. The Influence of Watermelon (Citrullus vulgaris) Juice to Renal Cell Damaging of Rats (Rattus norvegicus) that be Induced by Paracetamol. Script, Faculty of Medicine, Sebelas Maret University, Surakarta. Objective: The objective are to know the influence of watermelon juice to the renal cell damaging of rats which is induced by paracetamol and the increase of watermelon juice dose can also increase protection effect to the renal cell damaging of rats which is induced by paracetamol. Methods: This was laboratory experimental research with the post test only controlled group design. Samples in this research were twenty eight male rats, Wistar type, + 3 months old age and + 200 gr of each weight. Samples divided into 4 groups, each group has seven rats. Rats for control group (K) and the first treatment group (P1) will be given aquades for 14 days in a row. The second treatment group (P2) will be given watermelon juice dose I for 14 days in a row. The third treatment group (P3) will be given watermelon juice dose II for 14 days in a row. Paracetamol will be given to P1, P2, and P3, with dose 291,6 mg/200 gr weight of rats on the day 12, 13, and 14. Finally on day 15th, rats are sacrificed with neck dislocation. After that, we made preparate from the renal that painted by Hematoxillin Eosin. Renal histological is observed and scored base on quantifying of renal histological damaging on karyopyknosis, karyorrhexis, and karyolysis. Data are analized by One-Way ANOVA test (α= 0,05), and continued by Post Hoc Multiple Comparisons test (LSD) (α= 0,05). Results: Result of One-Way ANOVA shows that there was a significant of degree between 4 groups. Result of LSD method there was a significant of degree between K-P1, K-P2, K-P3, P1-P2, P1-P3, and P2-P3 groups. Conclusion: The feeding of watermelon juice was able to decrease the renal cell damaging of rats and the increase of watermelon juice dose followed by the increase of protection effect to the renal cell damaging of rats which is induced by paracetamol although it could not be normal. Key words: watermelon juice, paracetamol, renal cell damaging

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing: Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays européens 2002-052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population

Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing

Assessing time series models for forecasting international migration : lessons from the United Kingdom

Funding: This work was funded by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), UK Home Office, under the Home Office Science contract HOS/14/040, and also supported by the ESRC Centre for Population Change grant ES/K007394/1.Migration is one of the most unpredictable demographic processes. The aim of this article is to provide a blueprint for assessing various possible forecasting approaches in order to help safeguard producers and users of official migration statistics against misguided forecasts. To achieve that, we first evaluate the various existing approaches to modelling and forecasting of international migration flows. Subsequently, we present an empirical comparison of ex post performance of various forecasting methods, applied to international migration to and from the United Kingdom. The overarching goal is to assess the uncertainty of forecasts produced by using different forecasting methods, both in terms of their errors (biases) and calibration of uncertainty. The empirical assessment, comparing the results of various forecasting models against past migration estimates, confirms the intuition about weak predictability of migration, but also highlights varying levels of forecast errors for different migration streams. There is no single forecasting approach that would be well suited for different flows. We therefore recommend adopting a tailored approach to forecasts, and applying a risk management framework to their results, taking into account the levels of uncertainty of the individual flows, as well as the differences in their potential societal impact.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Thrombin inhibitory activity of some polyphenolic compounds

Thrombin, also known as an active plasma coagulation factor II, belongs to the family of serine proteases and plays a crucial role in blood coagulation process. The process of thrombin generation is the central event of the hemostatic process and regulates blood coagulant activity. For this reason, thrombin inhibition is key to successful novel antithrombotic pharmacotherapy. The aim of our present study was to examine the effects of the well-known polyphenolic compounds on the activity of thrombin, by characterization of its interaction with selected polyphenols using different biochemical methods and biosensor BIAcore analyses. Only six compounds, cyanidin, quercetin, silybin, cyanin, (+)-catechin and (−)-epicatechin, of all examined in this study polyphenols caused the inhibition of thrombin amidolytic activity. But only three of the six compounds (cyanidin, quercetin and silybin) changed thrombin proteolytic activity. BIAcore analyses demonstrated that cyanidin and quercetin caused a strong response in the interaction with immobilized thrombin, while cyanin and (−)-epicatechin induced a low response. Lineweaver–Burk curves show that used polyphenol aglycones act as competitive thrombin inhibitors. Our results suggest that polyphenolic compounds might be potential structural bases and source to find and project nature-based, safe, orally bioavailable direct thrombin inhibitors.This work was supported by Grant 545/485 and Grant 506/810 from the University of Lodz

The science of choice: an introduction

Introduction In October 2015, around 30 scholars convened at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock to discuss: (a) how individuals and families make decisions about marriage, child-birth, migration, retirement, and other transitions in the life course; and (b) how these decision processes can be operationalized in demographic models. The workshop was organized by the Scientific Panel on Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modelling con- vened by the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) and by MPIDR. The report of this ‘Science of choice’ workshop and the papers presented are available from the workshop’s website (see IUSSP 2015). The five papers included in this Supplement are revised versions of papers presented at the workshop in Rostock

Inferring transient dynamics of human populations from matrix non-normality

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.In our increasingly unstable and unpredictable world, population dynamics rarely settle uniformly to long-term behaviour. However, projecting period-by-period through the preceding fluctuations is more data-intensive and analytically involved than evaluating at equilibrium. To efficiently model populations and best inform policy, we require pragmatic suggestions as to when it is necessary to incorporate short-term transient dynamics and their effect on eventual projected population size. To estimate this need for matrix population modelling, we adopt a linear algebraic quantity known as non-normality. Matrix non-normality is distinct from normality in the Gaussian sense, and indicates the amplificatory potential of the population projection matrix given a particular population vector. In this paper, we compare and contrast three well-regarded metrics of non-normality, which were calculated for over 1000 age-structured human population projection matrices from 42 European countries in the period 1960 to 2014. Non-normality increased over time, mirroring the indices of transient dynamics that peaked around the millennium. By standardising the matrices to focus on transient dynamics and not changes in the asymptotic growth rate, we show that the damping ratio is an uninformative predictor of whether a population is prone to transient booms or busts in its size. These analyses suggest that population ecology approaches to inferring transient dynamics have too often relied on suboptimal analytical tools focussed on an initial population vector rather than the capacity of the life cycle to amplify or dampen transient fluctuations. Finally, we introduce the engineering technique of pseudospectra analysis to population ecology, which, like matrix non-normality, provides a more complete description of the transient fluctuations than the damping ratio. Pseudospectra analysis could further support non-normality assessment to enable a greater understanding of when we might expect transient phases to impact eventual population dynamics.This work was funded by Wellcome Trust New Investigator 103780 to TE, who is also funded by NERC Fellowship NE/J018163/1. JB gratefully acknowledges the ESRC Centre for Population Change ES/K007394/1

Model confidence sets and forecast combination: an application to age-specific mortality

Background: Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. Objective: The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in the determination of optimal weights from a finite sample. If the weights are selected sub-optimally, this can affect the accuracy of the model-averaged forecasts. Instead of choosing the optimal weights, we consider trimming a set of models before equally averaging forecasts from the selected superior models. Motivated by Hansen et al. (2011), we apply and evaluate the model confidence set procedure when combining mortality forecasts. Data & Methods: The proposed model averaging procedure is motivated by Samuels and Sekkel (2017) based on the concept of model confidence sets as proposed by Hansen et al. (2011) that incorporates the statistical significance of the forecasting performance. As the model confidence level increases, the set of superior models generally decreases. The proposed model averaging procedure is demonstrated via national and sub-national Japanese mortality for retirement ages between 60 and 100+. Results: Illustrated by national and sub-national Japanese mortality for ages between 60 and 100+, the proposed model-average procedure gives the smallest interval forecast errors, especially for males. Conclusion: We find that robust out-of-sample point and interval forecasts may be obtained from the trimming method. By robust, we mean robustness against model misspecification

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases