Genome-wide association studies, false positives, and how we interpret them

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identify genetic regions that may play a role in the development of phenotypes. Annotation of these significantly associated “peaks” for their connection to the tested phenotype is an important step in the process of GWAS. However, some of these peaks may be false positives. In this study, we analyzed annotators’ ability to make convincing connections between synthetic GWAS peaks and the phenotype of interest, where synthetic peaks were taken from a GWAS of a trait genetically uncorrelated to the original trait. We provided five annotators with a mix of three original and six synthetic GWAS peaks of three peak significance categories along with relevant literature search results and asked them to annotate these regions. We asked three annotators to record how strong the evidence was at each peak connecting it to the scanned trait as well as the likelihood of the annotator’s further study of that region for its role in the development of the trait. Annotation status was significantly associated with both original/synthetic peak status (p = 0.0034) and peak significance category (p = 0.0112). The proportion of synthetic peaks annotated as having convincing connections was greater than expected of an “ideal” annotator (p <2.2 x 10-16). Annotators rated original peaks as having significantly higher strength of evidence (pBonferroni = 0.0348) and likelihood of further study than synthetic peaks (pBonferroni = 0.0122). Highly significant peaks had significantly higher strength of evidence than suggestively significant peaks (pBonferroni = 0.0441). This study shows the ease with which annotators are able to make convincing connections between synthetic peaks and tested phenotypes. Because of the amount of resources invested into GWAS, it is essential that these studies are performed with care to reduce wasting resources on follow-up of false positives and ensure effective follow-up of true positives for the benefit of public health

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Genetic distance and ancestry proportion modify the association between maternal genetic risk score of type 2 diabetes and fetal growth

Abstract Background Maternal genetic risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been associated with fetal growth, but the influence of genetic ancestry is not yet fully understood. We aimed to investigate the influence of genetic distance (GD) and genetic ancestry proportion (GAP) on the association of maternal genetic risk score of T2D (GRST2D) with fetal weight and birthweight. Methods Multi-ancestral pregnant women (n = 1,837) from the NICHD Fetal Growth Studies – Singletons cohort were included in the current analyses. Fetal weight (in grams, g) was estimated from ultrasound measurements of fetal biometry, and birthweight (g) was measured at delivery. GRS T2D was calculated using T2D-associated variants identified in the latest trans-ancestral genome-wide association study and was categorized into quartiles. GD and GAP were estimated using genotype data of four reference populations. GD was categorized into closest, middle, and farthest tertiles, and GAP was categorized as highest, medium, and lowest. Linear regression analyses were performed to test the association of GRST2D with fetal weight and birthweight, adjusted for covariates, in each GD and GAP category. Results Among women with the closest GD from African and Amerindigenous ancestries, the fourth and third GRS T2D quartile was significantly associated with 5.18 to 7.48 g (weeks 17–20) and 6.83 to 25.44 g (weeks 19–27) larger fetal weight compared to the first quartile, respectively. Among women with middle GD from European ancestry, the fourth GRS T2D quartile was significantly associated with 5.73 to 21.21 g (weeks 18–26) larger fetal weight. Furthermore, among women with middle GD from European and African ancestries, the fourth and second GRS T2D quartiles were significantly associated with 117.04 g (95% CI = 23.88–210.20, p = 0.014) and 95.05 g (95% CI = 4.73–185.36, p = 0.039) larger birthweight compared to the first quartile, respectively. The absence of significant association among women with the closest GD from East Asian ancestry was complemented by a positive significant association among women with the highest East Asian GAP. Conclusions The association between maternal GRS T2D and fetal growth began in early-second trimester and was influenced by GD and GAP. The results suggest the use of genetic GD and GAP could improve the generalizability of GRS

Prenatal social support in low-risk pregnancy shapes placental epigenome

Abstract Background Poor social support during pregnancy has been linked to inflammation and adverse pregnancy and childhood health outcomes. Placental epigenetic alterations may underlie these links but are still unknown in humans. Methods In a cohort of low-risk pregnant women (n = 301) from diverse ethnic backgrounds, social support was measured using the ENRICHD Social Support Inventory (ESSI) during the first trimester. Placental samples collected at delivery were analyzed for DNA methylation and gene expression using Illumina 450K Beadchip Array and RNA-seq, respectively. We examined association between maternal prenatal social support and DNA methylation in placenta. Associated cytosine-(phosphate)-guanine sites (CpGs) were further assessed for correlation with nearby gene expression in placenta. Results The mean age (SD) of the women was 27.7 (5.3) years. The median (interquartile range) of ESSI scores was 24 (22–25). Prenatal social support was significantly associated with methylation level at seven CpGs (P FDR < 0.05). The methylation levels at two of the seven CpGs correlated with placental expression of VGF and ILVBL (P FDR < 0.05), genes known to be involved in neurodevelopment and energy metabolism. The genes annotated with the top 100 CpGs were enriched for pathways related to fetal growth, coagulation system, energy metabolism, and neurodevelopment. Sex-stratified analysis identified additional significant associations at nine CpGs in male-bearing pregnancies and 35 CpGs in female-bearing pregnancies. Conclusions The findings suggest that prenatal social support is linked to placental DNA methylation changes in a low-stress setting, including fetal sex-dependent epigenetic changes. Given the relevance of some of these changes in fetal neurodevelopmental outcomes, the findings signal important methylation targets for future research on molecular mechanisms of effect of the broader social environment on pregnancy and fetal outcomes. Trial registration NCT00912132 ( ClinicalTrials.gov )

Phospholipids of APOE lipoproteins activate microglia in an isoform-specific manner in preclinical models of Alzheimer’s disease

Microglia can clear amyloid plaques in Alzheimer’s disease. Here, the authors show that specific isoforms of the phospholipid forming APOE lipoproteins activate microglia in pre-clinical mouse models of Alzheimer’s disease

Maternal age is related to offspring DNA methylation : a meta-analysis of results from the pace consortium

Worldwide trends to delay childbearing have increased parental ages at birth. Older parental age may harm offspring health, but mechanisms remain unclear. Alterations in offspring DNA methylation (DNAm) patterns could play a role as aging has been associated with methylation changes in gametes of older individuals. We meta-analyzed epigenome-wide associations of parental age with offspring blood DNAm of over 9500 newborns and 2000 children (5–10 years old) from the Pregnancy and Childhood Epigenetics consortium. In newborns, we identified 33 CpG sites in 13 loci with DNAm associated with maternal age (PFDR &lt; 0.05). Eight of these CpGs were located near/in the MTNR1B gene, coding for a melatonin receptor. Regional analysis identified them together as a differentially methylated region consisting of 9 CpGs in/near MTNR1B, at which higher DNAm was associated with greater maternal age (PFDR = 6.92 × 10−8) in newborns. In childhood blood samples, these differences in blood DNAm of MTNR1B CpGs were nominally significant (p &lt; 0.05) and retained the same positive direction, suggesting persistence of associations. Maternal age was also positively associated with higher DNA methylation at three CpGs in RTEL1-TNFRSF6B at birth (PFDR &lt; 0.05) and nominally in childhood (p &lt; 0.0001). Of the remaining 10 CpGs also persistent in childhood, methylation at cg26709300 in YPEL3/BOLA2B in external data was associated with expression of ITGAL, an immune regulator. While further study is needed to establish causality, particularly due to the small effect sizes observed, our results potentially support offspring DNAm as a mechanism underlying associations of maternal age with child health