Reducing the sodium content of high-salt foods: Effect on cardiovascular disease in South Africa

Background. Average salt intake in South African (SA) adults, 8.1 g/day, is higher than the recommended 4 - 6 g/day recommended by the World Health Organization. Much salt consumption arises from non-discretionary intake (the highest proportion from bread, with contributions from margarine, soup mixes and gravies). This contributes to an increasing burden of hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Objectives. To provide SA-specific information on the number of fatal (stroke, ischaemic heart disease and hypertensive heart disease) and non-fatal CVD events that would be prevented each year following a reduction in the sodium content of bread, soup mix, seasoning and margarine. Methods. Based on the potential sodium reduction in selected products, we calculated the expected change in population-level systolic blood pressure (SBP) and mortality due to CVD and stroke. Results. Proposed reductions would decrease the average salt intake by 0.85 g/person/day. This would result in 7 400 fewer CVD deaths and 4 300 less non-fatal strokes per year compared with 2008. Cost savings of up to R300 million would also occur. Conclusions. Population-wide strategies have great potential to achieve public health gains as they do not rely on individual behaviour or a well-functioning health system. This is the first study to show the potential effect of a salt reduction policy on health in SA

Priority Setting for Universal Health Coverage: We Need to Focus Both on Substance and on Process Comment on “Priority Setting for Universal Health Coverage: We Need Evidence-Informed Deliberative Processes, not Just More Evidence on Cost-Effectiveness”

In an editorial published in this journal, Baltussen et al argue that information on cost-effectiveness is not sufficient for priority setting for universal health coverage (UHC), a claim which is correct as far as it goes. However, their focus on the procedural legitimacy of ‘micro’ priority setting processes (eg, decisions concerning the reimbursement of specific interventions), and their related assumption that values for priority setting are determined only at this level, leads them to ignore the relevance of higher level, ‘macro’ priority setting processes, for example, consultations held by World Health Organization (WHO) Member States and other global stakeholders that have resulted in widespread consensus on the principles of UHC. Priority setting is not merely about discrete choices, nor should the focus be exclusively (or even mainly) on improving the procedural elements of micro priority setting processes. Systemic activities that shape the health system environment, such as strategic planning, as well as the substantive content of global policy instruments, are critical elements for priority setting for UH

Assessment of Swedish snus for tobacco harm reduction: an epidemiological modelling study

BACKGROUND: Swedish snus is a smokeless tobacco product that has been suggested as a tobacco harm reduction product. Our aim was to assess the potential population health effects of snus. METHODS: We assessed the potential population health effects of snus in Australia with multistate life tables to estimate the difference in health-adjusted life expectancy between people who have never been smokers and various trajectories of tobacco use, including switching from smoking to snus use; and the potential for net population-level harm given different rates of snus uptake by current smokers, ex-smokers, and people who have never smoked. FINDINGS: There was little difference in health-adjusted life expectancy between smokers who quit all tobacco and smokers who switch to snus (difference of 0.1-0.3 years for men and 0.1-0.4 years for women). For net harm to occur, 14-25 ex-smokers would have to start using snus to offset the health gain from every smoker who switched to snus rather than continuing to smoke. Likewise, 14-25 people who have never smoked would need to start using snus to offset the health gain from every new tobacco user who used snus rather than smoking. INTERPRETATION: Current smokers who switch to using snus rather than continuing to smoke can realise substantial health gains. Snus could produce a net benefit to health at the population level if it is adopted in sufficient numbers by inveterate smokers. Relaxing current restrictions on the sale of snus is more likely to produce a net benefit than harm, with the size of the benefit dependent on how many inveterate smokers switch to snus

Cost-effectiveness thresholds : pros and cons

Cost-effectiveness analysis is used to compare the costs and outcomes of alternative policy options. Each resulting cost-effectiveness ratio represents the magnitude of additional health gained per additional unit of resources spent. Cost-effectiveness thresholds allow cost-effectiveness ratios that represent good or very good value for money to be identified. In 2001, the World Health Organization’s Commission on Macroeconomics in Health suggested cost-effectiveness thresholds based on multiples of a country’s per-capita gross domestic product (GDP). In some contexts, in choosing which health interventions to fund and which not to fund, these thresholds have been used as decision rules. However, experience with the use of such GDP-based thresholds in decision-making processes at country level shows them to lack country specificity and this-in addition to uncertainty in the modelled cost-effectiveness ratios-can lead to the wrong decision on how to spend health-care resources. Cost-effectiveness information should be used alongside other considerations-e.g. budget impact and feasibility considerations-in a transparent decision-making process, rather than in isolation based on a single threshold value. Although cost-effectiveness ratios are undoubtedly informative in assessing value for money, countries should be encouraged to develop a context-specific process for decision-making that is supported by legislation, has stakeholder buy-in, for example the involvement of civil society organizations and patient groups, and is transparent, consistent and fair

Revision of the Ethiopian Essential Health Service Package: An Explication of the Process and Methods Used

To make progress toward universal health coverage, countries should define the type and mix of health services that respond to their populations’ needs. Ethiopia revised its essential health services package (EHSP) in 2019. This paper describes the process, methodology and key features of the new EHSP. A total of 35 consultative workshops were convened with experts and the public to define the scope of the revision, develop a list of health interventions, agree on the prioritization criteria, gather evidence and compare health interventions. Seven prioritization criteria were employed: disease burden, cost effectiveness, equity, financial risk protection, budget impact, public acceptability and political acceptability. In the first phase, 1,749 interventions were identified, including existing and new interventions, which were regrouped and reorganized to identify 1,442 interventions as relevant. The second phase removed interventions that did not match the burden of disease or were not relevant in the Ethiopian setting, reducing the number of interventions to 1,018. These were evaluated further and ranked by the other criteria. Finally, 594 interventions were classified as high priority (58%), 213 as medium priorities (21%) and 211 as low priority interventions (21%). The current policy is to provide 570 interventions (56%) free of charge while guaranteeing the availability of the remaining services with cost-sharing (38%) and cost-recovery (6%) mechanisms in place. In conclusion, the revision of Ethiopia’s EHSP followed a participatory, inclusive and evidence-based prioritization process. The interventions included in the EHSP were comprehensive and were assigned to health care delivery platforms and linked to financing mechanisms.publishedVersio

Assessment of Swedish snus for tobacco harm reduction: technical appendix

This technical appendix details the methods used in an assessment of the potential of snus for tobacco harm reduction using simulation modelling

The impact of diabetes prevention on labour force participation and income of older Australians: an economic study

Background: Globally, diabetes is estimated to affect 246 million people and is increasing. In Australia diabetes has been made a national health priority. While the direct costs of treating diabetes are substantial, and rising, the indirect costs are considered greater. There is evidence that interventions to prevent diabetes are effective, and cost-effective, but the impact on labour force participation and income has not been assessed. In this study we quantify the potential impact of implementing a diabetes prevention program, using screening and either metformin or a lifestyle intervention on individual economic outcomes of pre-diabetic Australians aged 45-64. Methods. The output of an epidemiological microsimulation model of the reduction in prevalence of diabetes from a lifestyle or metformin intervention, and another microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD, of health and the associated impacts on labour force participation, personal income, savings, government revenue and expenditure were used to quantify the estimated outcomes of the two interventions. Results: An additional 753 person years in the labour force would have been achieved from 1993 to 2003 for the male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003, if a lifestyle intervention had been introduced in 1983; with 890 person years for the equivalent female group. The impact on labour force participation was lower for the metformin intervention, and increased with age for both interventions. The male cohort aged 60-64 years in 2003 would have earned an additional $30 million in income with the metformin intervention, and the equivalent female cohort would have earned an additional$25 million. If the lifestyle intervention was introduced, the same male and female cohorts would have earned an additional $34 million and$28 million respectively from 1993 to 2003. For the individuals involved, on average, males would have earned an additional $44,600 per year and females an additional$31,800 per year, if they had continued to work as a result of preventing diabetes. Conclusions: In addition to improved health and wellbeing, considerable benefits to individuals, in terms of both additional working years and increased personal income, could be made by introducing either a lifestyle or metformin intervention to prevent diabetes

The national burden of road traffic injuries in Thailand

Background: This study quantifies the burden of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Thailand in 2004, incorporating new Thai data on mortality and the frequency and severity of long-term disability

Somatic Mutation Profiles of MSI and MSS Colorectal Cancer Identified by Whole Exome Next Generation Sequencing and Bioinformatics Analysis

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is with approximately 1 million cases the third most common cancer worldwide. Extensive research is ongoing to decipher the underlying genetic patterns with the hope to improve early cancer diagnosis and treatment. In this direction, the recent progress in next generation sequencing technologies has revolutionized the field of cancer genomics. However, one caveat of these studies remains the large amount of genetic variations identified and their interpretation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we present the first work on whole exome NGS of primary colon cancers. We performed 454 whole exome pyrosequencing of tumor as well as adjacent not affected normal colonic tissue from microsatellite stable (MSS) and microsatellite instable (MSI) colon cancer patients and identified more than 50,000 small nucleotide variations for each tissue. According to predictions based on MSS and MSI pathomechanisms we identified eight times more somatic non-synonymous variations in MSI cancers than in MSS and we were able to reproduce the result in four additional CRCs. Our bioinformatics filtering approach narrowed down the rate of most significant mutations to 359 for MSI and 45 for MSS CRCs with predicted altered protein functions. In both CRCs, MSI and MSS, we found somatic mutations in the intracellular kinase domain of bone morphogenetic protein receptor 1A, BMPR1A, a gene where so far germline mutations are associated with juvenile polyposis syndrome, and show that the mutations functionally impair the protein function. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that with deep sequencing of tumor exomes one may be able to predict the microsatellite status of CRC and in addition identify potentially clinically relevant mutations