Estimating surface water availability in high mountain rock slopes using a numerical energy balance model

Water takes part in most physical processes that shape the mountainous periglacial landscapes and initiation of mass wasting. An observed increase in rockfall activity in several mountainous regions was previously linked to permafrost degradation in high mountains, and water that infiltrates into rock fractures is one of the likely drivers of these processes. However, there is very little knowledge on the quantity and timing of water availability for infiltration in steep rock slopes. This knowledge gap originates from the complex meteorological, hydrological and thermal processes that control snowmelt, and also the challenging access and data acquisition in the extreme alpine environments. Here we use field measurement and numerical modeling to simulate the energy balance and hydrological fluxes in a steep high elevation permafrost affected rock slope at Aiguille du Midi (3842 m a.s.l), in the Mont-Blanc massif. Our results provide new information about water balance at the surface of steep rock slopes. Model results suggest that only ~25 % of the snowfall accumulates in our study site, the remaining ~75 % are redistributed by wind and gravity. Snow accumulation depth is inversely correlated with surface slopes between 40&deg; to 70&deg;. Snowmelt occurs between spring and late summer and most of it does not reach the rock surface due to the formation of an impermeable ice layer at the base of the snowpack. The annual effective snowmelt, that is available for infiltration, is highly variable and ranges over a factor of six with values between 0.05&ndash;0.28 m in the years 1959&ndash;2021. The onset of the effective snowmelt occurs between May and August, and ends before October. It precedes the first rainfall by one month on average. Sublimation is the main process of snowpack mass loss in our study site. Model simulations at varying elevations show that effective snowmelt is the main source of water for infiltration above 3600 m a.s.l.; below, direct rainfall is the dominant source. The change from snowmelt-dominated to rainfall-dominated water availability is nonlinear and characterized by a rapid increase in water availability for infiltration. We suggest that this elevation of water availability transition is highly sensitive to climate change, if snowmelt-dominated permafrost-affected slopes experience an abrupt increase in water input that can initiate rock slope failure.</p

Lineage 2 West Nile Virus as Cause of Fatal Neurologic Disease in Horses, South Africa

Lineage 2 WNV may be missed as a cause of neurologic infections in horses and humans in this region

Geomorphological context and formation history of Cloggs Cave: What was the cave like when people inhabited it?

New research undertaken at Cloggs Cave, in the foothills of the Australian Alps, employed an integrated geological-geomorphological-archaeological approach with manifold dating methods and fine resolution LiDAR 3D mapping. Long-standing questions about the site’s chronostratigraphy (e.g. the exact relationship between basal megafaunal deposits and archaeological layers), sedimentation processes and geomorphic changes were resolved. The cave’s formation history was reconstructed to understand its changing morphology and morphogenic processes, and to clarify how these processes shaped the cave’s deposits. Key findings include the identification of: 1) the geomorphological processes that caused the lateral juxtaposition of 52,000 year-old megafaunal and later occupational layers; 2) the existence of one and possibly two (now-buried) palaeo-entrance(s) that enabled now-extinct megafauna and extant large fauna to enter the cave, most likely via a free-roaming passage rather than a pit drop; 3) morphological changes to the cave during the time of the Old People, including the timing of changes to the inclination of palaeo-surfaces; and 4) modifications to stalactites, crushing of calcite formations for the manufacture of powder, construction of a stone arrangement, and movement of large limestone blocks by the Old People. Ultimately, these findings demonstrate that to properly understand what Cloggs Cave was like when the Old People visited the site requires the construction of a narrative that spans some 400 million years and the development of an approach capable of integrating the many scales and processes (e.g. geological, geomorphological, archaeological) that configured to shape the site

Alcohol Consumption, Cigarette Smoking, and Risk of Breast Cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers: Results from The BRCA1 and BRCA2 Cohort Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption have been intensively studied in the general population to assess their effects on the risk of breast cancer, but very few studies have examined these effects in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Given the high breast cancer risk for mutation carriers and the importance of BRCA1 and BRCA2 in DNA repair, better evidence on the associations of these lifestyle factors with breast cancer risk is essential. METHODS: Using a large international pooled cohort of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, we conducted retrospective (5,707 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 3,525 BRCA2 mutation carriers) and prospective (2,276 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 1,610 BRCA2 mutation carriers) analyses of alcohol and tobacco consumption using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: For both BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, none of the smoking-related variables was associated with breast cancer risk, except smoking for more than 5 years before a first full-term pregnancy (FFTP) when compared with parous women who never smoked. For BRCA1 mutation carriers, the HR from retrospective analysis (HRR) was 1.19 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-1.39] and the HR from prospective analysis (HRP) was 1.36 (95% CI, 0.99-1.87). For BRCA2 mutation carriers, smoking for more than 5 years before an FFTP showed an association of a similar magnitude, but the confidence limits were wider (HRR = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.55 and HRP = 1.30; 95% CI, 0.83-2.01). For both carrier groups, alcohol consumption was not associated with breast cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS: The finding that smoking during the prereproductive years increases breast cancer risk for mutation carriers warrants further investigation. IMPACT: This is the largest prospective study of BRCA mutation carriers to assess these important risk factors

Genome-Wide Association Study in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers Identifies Novel Loci Associated with Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7×10-8, HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4×10-8, HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4×10-8, HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific associat

The Influence of Number and Timing of Pregnancies on Breast Cancer Risk for Women With BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutations

Background: Full-term pregnancy (FTP) is associated with a reduced breast cancer (BC) risk over time, but women are at increased BC risk in the immediate years following an FTP. No large prospective studies, however, have examined whether the number and timing of pregnancies are associated with BC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Methods: Using weighted and time-varying Cox proportional hazards models, we investigated whether reproductive events are associated with BC risk for mutation carriers using a retrospective cohort (5707 BRCA1 and 3525 BRCA2 mutation carriers) and a prospective cohort (2276 BRCA1 and 1610 BRCA2 mutation carriers), separately for each cohort and the combined prospective and retrospective cohort. Results: For BRCA1 mutation carriers, there was no overall association with parity compared with nulliparity (combined hazard ratio [HRc] ¼ 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] ¼ 0.83 to 1.18). Relative to being uniparous, an increased number of FTPs was associated with decreased BC risk (HRc¼ 0.79, 95% CI ¼ 0.69 to 0.91; HRc¼ 0.70, 95% CI ¼ 0.59 to 0.82; HRc¼ 0.50, 95% CI ¼ 0.40 to 0.63, for 2, 3, and 4 FTPs, respectively, Ptrend < .0001) and increasing duration of breastfeeding was associated with decreased BC risk (combined cohort Ptrend ¼ .0003). Relative to being nulliparous, uniparous BRCA1 mutation carriers were at increased BC risk in the prospective analysis (prospective hazard ration [HRp] ¼ 1.69, 95% CI ¼ 1.09 to 2.62). For BRCA2 mutation carriers, being parous was associated with a 30% increase in BC risk (HRc ¼ 1.33, 95% CI ¼ 1.05 to 1.69), and there was no apparent decrease in risk associated with multiparity except for having at least 4 FTPs vs. 1 FTP (HRc¼ 0.72, 95% CI ¼ 0.54 to 0.98). Conclusions: These findings suggest differential associations with parity between BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers with higher risk for uniparous BRCA1 carriers and parous BRCA2 carriers

Les singularités hydronymiques des torrents chamoniards, un révélateur de systèmes torrentiels atypiques

International audience1L’hydronymie a soulevé des débats parfois passionnés chez les géographes. Dans le cadre de recherches sur les dynamiques des torrents proglaciaires de la vallée de Chamonix (Berthet, 2016), nous avons été confrontés à des singularités remarquables dans l’appellation des torrents. Plus qu’une anecdote, ces bizarreries hydronymiques soulignent, en fait, l’originalité des systèmes torrentiels proglaciaires et révèlent l’ampleur de leur évolution en lien direct avec le retrait glaciaire depuis la fin du Petit Age Glaciaire (PAG)

L’évolution géomorphologique des systèmes torrentiels proglaciaires de la vallée de Chamonix-Mont-Blanc, une approche du couplage sédimentaire de la fin du Petit Age Glaciaire au désenglacement récent

Since the end of Little Ice Age, glaciers of the Mont blanc massif are retreating and large sediment volume are releasing from the ice. Thus, sediment supply, which is a main control factor of the proglacial stream geomorphic activity, could be deeply modified. Therefore, the consequences on the sediment fluxes and the risk management need to be understanding because of the present acceleration of glacier retreat and urban sprawl in the Chamonix valley. The goal of this thesis is to study the sediment coupling between stream systems and areas released by glaciers. A first approach allows understanding the geomorphic trajectory of proglacial system at the Chamonix scale since the end of the Little Ice Age. Our results supported by modelling and archives analyses, show the decreasing capacity of the hydrographic pattern to be connected with sediment sources. The second approach is lead on the LiDAR DEM multi-temporal comparison. It focuses on the three main proglacial systems: Argentière, Mer de Glace and Bossons, whom occurred a decennal flood during the 2014 summer. This part of our study underlines the storage efficiency into deglaciated areas and the increasing role of anthropic forcing. Present sediment yield to proglacial stream is leaded by facilities such as the Mont Blanc Tunnel substructure or the subglacial harnessing. Our results show that the decreasing geomorphic activity of proglacial stream in the Chamonix valley is mainly caused by glacier retreat from the early 18th Century to the middle 20th century, then it is leaded by the increasing human pressure. Nevertheless, the fall of stream activity is punctuated by extreme events, such as the 1920 flood in the Arveyron of the Mer de Glace that we reconstructed the geomorphic consequences. Despite their intensity, effects of that king of events are limited close to the glacier downstream. Contrary to our initial hypotheses, glacier retreat in the Chamonix Valley, is not follow by a geomorphic crisis of proglacial streams because of the disconnectivity between sediment released from the ice and stream systems.Depuis la fin du Petit Age Glaciaire, les glaciers du massif du Mont-Blanc se retirent et libèrent ainsi d’importants volumes de sédiments. La fourniture sédimentaire grossière, qui est l’un des éléments de contrôle principaux de l’activité géomorphologique des torrents proglaciaires, peut être profondément modifiée. Dans le contexte de la vallée de Chamonix, où la pression urbaine est très forte, l’accélération du retrait glaciaire soulève des questionnements de la part à la fois des gestionnaires et des scientifiques sur l’évolution des risques et de la gestion des flux solides.L’objectif de ce travail de thèse est d’étudier le couplage sédimentaire entre les espaces libérés des glaces et les torrents jusqu’en fond de vallée, avec un double niveau de réponse. Le premier niveau permet de comprendre les trajectoires géomorphologiques des systèmes glacio-torrentiels depuis la fin du Petit Age Glaciaire et à l’échelle de la vallée. Il est étayé par une analyse géomorphologique et par l’étude de l’évolution du réseau hydrographique, qui s’appuie sur une modélisation et sur de nombreux documents d’archive. Cette étape souligne la diminution du potentiel du système torrentiel à remobiliser des sources sédimentaires. En conséquence, l’activité des torrents a fortement baissée depuis 150 ans. La seconde approche concerne l’étude des dynamiques récentes basée sur la comparaison diachronique de MNT LiDAR à haute résolution. Elle se focalise sur les trois systèmes glacio-torrentiels les plus grands de la vallée (Argentière, Mer de Glace et Bossons) dont les activités morphogènes ont pu être interprétées sous le prisme de crues d’occurrence décennale survenues en août 2014. Cette partie montre l’efficacité des processus de stockage sédimentaire au sein même des espaces désenglacés, ainsi que l’importance du forçage humain sur la morphogénèse torrentielle qui prime désormais sur l’influence du retrait glaciaire. L’état de la fourniture sédimentaire résulte actuellement de l’impact des différentes infrastructures, telles que les captages sous-glaciaires ou l’autoroute d’accès au Tunnel du Mont Blanc.Nos résultats montrent donc une première phase de diminution de l’activité torrentielle, principalement causée par le retrait des glaciers de 1850 à 1950, puis les conséquences pression des activités humaines sur les évolutions hydromorphologiques. La baisse de la torrentialité est toutefois ponctuée de quelques évènements, comme la crue du septembre 1920 sur l’Arveyron de la Mer de Glace, dont nous avons reconstitué les conséquences géomorphologiques. Malgré leur intensité, les effets de ces crues restent néanmoins relativement limités à l’aval immédiat des glaciers.Contrairement donc aux hypothèses initialement soulevées, le retrait glaciaire n’implique pas une augmentation de la fourniture sédimentaire, mais au contraire une diminution des apports du fait de la déconnexion entre les espaces désenglacés et les systèmes torrentiels

Geomorphic evolution of proglacial stream systems of Chamonix- Mont Blanc Valley, sediment connectivity approach from the end of the Little Ice Age to the current glacier retreat

Depuis la fin du Petit Age Glaciaire, les glaciers du massif du Mont-Blanc se retirent et libèrent ainsi d’importants volumes de sédiments. La fourniture sédimentaire grossière, qui est l’un des éléments de contrôle principaux de l’activité géomorphologique des torrents proglaciaires, peut être profondément modifiée. Dans le contexte de la vallée de Chamonix, où la pression urbaine est très forte, l’accélération du retrait glaciaire soulève des questionnements de la part à la fois des gestionnaires et des scientifiques sur l’évolution des risques et de la gestion des flux solides.L’objectif de ce travail de thèse est d’étudier le couplage sédimentaire entre les espaces libérés des glaces et les torrents jusqu’en fond de vallée, avec un double niveau de réponse. Le premier niveau permet de comprendre les trajectoires géomorphologiques des systèmes glacio-torrentiels depuis la fin du Petit Age Glaciaire et à l’échelle de la vallée. Il est étayé par une analyse géomorphologique et par l’étude de l’évolution du réseau hydrographique, qui s’appuie sur une modélisation et sur de nombreux documents d’archive. Cette étape souligne la diminution du potentiel du système torrentiel à remobiliser des sources sédimentaires. En conséquence, l’activité des torrents a fortement baissée depuis 150 ans. La seconde approche concerne l’étude des dynamiques récentes basée sur la comparaison diachronique de MNT LiDAR à haute résolution. Elle se focalise sur les trois systèmes glacio-torrentiels les plus grands de la vallée (Argentière, Mer de Glace et Bossons) dont les activités morphogènes ont pu être interprétées sous le prisme de crues d’occurrence décennale survenues en août 2014. Cette partie montre l’efficacité des processus de stockage sédimentaire au sein même des espaces désenglacés, ainsi que l’importance du forçage humain sur la morphogénèse torrentielle qui prime désormais sur l’influence du retrait glaciaire. L’état de la fourniture sédimentaire résulte actuellement de l’impact des différentes infrastructures, telles que les captages sous-glaciaires ou l’autoroute d’accès au Tunnel du Mont Blanc.Nos résultats montrent donc une première phase de diminution de l’activité torrentielle, principalement causée par le retrait des glaciers de 1850 à 1950, puis les conséquences pression des activités humaines sur les évolutions hydromorphologiques. La baisse de la torrentialité est toutefois ponctuée de quelques évènements, comme la crue du septembre 1920 sur l’Arveyron de la Mer de Glace, dont nous avons reconstitué les conséquences géomorphologiques. Malgré leur intensité, les effets de ces crues restent néanmoins relativement limités à l’aval immédiat des glaciers.Contrairement donc aux hypothèses initialement soulevées, le retrait glaciaire n’implique pas une augmentation de la fourniture sédimentaire, mais au contraire une diminution des apports du fait de la déconnexion entre les espaces désenglacés et les systèmes torrentiels.Since the end of Little Ice Age, glaciers of the Mont blanc massif are retreating and large sediment volume are releasing from the ice. Thus, sediment supply, which is a main control factor of the proglacial stream geomorphic activity, could be deeply modified. Therefore, the consequences on the sediment fluxes and the risk management need to be understanding because of the present acceleration of glacier retreat and urban sprawl in the Chamonix valley. The goal of this thesis is to study the sediment coupling between stream systems and areas released by glaciers. A first approach allows understanding the geomorphic trajectory of proglacial system at the Chamonix scale since the end of the Little Ice Age. Our results supported by modelling and archives analyses, show the decreasing capacity of the hydrographic pattern to be connected with sediment sources. The second approach is lead on the LiDAR DEM multi-temporal comparison. It focuses on the three main proglacial systems: Argentière, Mer de Glace and Bossons, whom occurred a decennal flood during the 2014 summer. This part of our study underlines the storage efficiency into deglaciated areas and the increasing role of anthropic forcing. Present sediment yield to proglacial stream is leaded by facilities such as the Mont Blanc Tunnel substructure or the subglacial harnessing. Our results show that the decreasing geomorphic activity of proglacial stream in the Chamonix valley is mainly caused by glacier retreat from the early 18th Century to the middle 20th century, then it is leaded by the increasing human pressure. Nevertheless, the fall of stream activity is punctuated by extreme events, such as the 1920 flood in the Arveyron of the Mer de Glace that we reconstructed the geomorphic consequences. Despite their intensity, effects of that king of events are limited close to the glacier downstream. Contrary to our initial hypotheses, glacier retreat in the Chamonix Valley, is not follow by a geomorphic crisis of proglacial streams because of the disconnectivity between sediment released from the ice and stream systems