External sources of clean technology: evidence from the clean development mechanism

New technology is fundamental to sustainable development. However, inventors from industrialized countries often refuse technology transfer because they worry about reverse-engineering. When can clean technology transfer succeed? We develop a formal model of the political economy of North–South technology transfer. According to the model, technology transfer is possible if (1) the technology in focus has limited global commercial potential or (2) the host developing country does not have the capacity to absorb new technologies for commercial use. If both conditions fail, inventors from industrialized countries worry about the adverse competitiveness effects of reverse-engineering, so technology transfer fails. Data analysis of technology transfer in 4,894 projects implemented under the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism during the 2004–2010 period provides evidence in support of the model

Are your covariates under control? How normalization can re-introduce covariate effects

Many statistical tests rely on the assumption that the residuals of a model are normally distributed. Rank-based inverse normal transformation (INT) of the dependent variable is one of the most popular approaches to satisfy the normality assumption. Studies regularly adjust for covariates and then normalize the residuals. This study investigated the effect of regressing covariates against the dependent variable and then applying rank-based INT to the residuals. The correlation between the dependent variable and covariates at each stage of processing was assessed. An alternative approach was tested of applying rank-based INT to the dependent variable before regressing covariates was tested. Analyses based on both simulated and real data examples demonstrated that applying rank-based INT to the dependent variable residuals after regressing out covariates re-introduces a linear correlation between the dependent variable and covariates in almost all situations. This will increase type-1 errors and reduce power. Our proposed alternative approach, where rank-based INT was applied prior to controlling for covariate effects, gave residuals that were normally distributed and linearly uncorrelated with covariates. This approach is therefore recommended

The Patients Assessment Chronic Illness Care (PACIC) questionnaire in The Netherlands: a validation study in rural general practice

BACKGROUND: Many patients with chronic illness receive health care in primary care settings, so a challenge is to provide well-structured chronic care in these settings. Our aim was to develop and test a Dutch version of the PACIC questionnaire, a measure for patient reported structured chronic care. METHODS: Observational study in 165 patients with diabetes or COPD from four general practices (72% response rate). Patients completed a written questionnaire, which included instruments for assessing chronic illness care (PACIC), evaluations of general practice (Europep), enablement (PEI), and individual characteristics. RESULTS: The patients had a mean age of 68.0 years and 47% comprised of women. Twenty-two to 35% of responding patients did not provide answers to specific items in the PACIC. In 11 items the lowest answering category was used by 30% or more of the responders and in 6 items the highest answering category was used by this number of responders. Principal factor analysis identified the previously defined five domains reasonably well. Cronbach's alpha per domain varied from 0.71 to 0.83, and the intraclass coefficient from 0.66 to 0.91. Diabetes patients reported higher presence of structured chronic care for 14 out of the 20 PACIC items. The effect of patient evaluations of general practice on the PACIC score was positive (b = 0.72, p < 0.004), but the effect of patient enablement on the PACIC score was negative (b = -1.13, p < 0.000). CONCLUSION: A translated and validated Dutch version of the PACIC questionnaire is now available. Further research on its validity is recommended

Associations of vitamin D pathway genes with circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin-D, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin-D, and prostate cancer:a nested case-control study

Vitamin D pathway single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are potentially useful proxies for investigating whether circulating vitamin D metabolites [total 25-hydroxyvitamin-D, 25(OH)D; 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin, 1,25(OH)2D] are causally related to prostate cancer. We investigated associations of sixteen SNPs across seven genes with prostate-specific antigen-detected prostate cancer

Sometimes You Cannot Have It All: Party Switching and Affiliation Motivations as Substitutes

Existing research on when legislators switch parties reports inconsistent results about motivations for switching (e.g., office, ideology, and votes). I treat the motivations for party switching as substitutes and argue that many of the inconsistencies that persist can be explained by modelling the interactive effects between these motivations. For example, scholars differ in terms of whether they find that electoral considerations are an important determinant of party switching. The conflicting findings on the independent effects of electoral considerations are explained here by demonstrating that these effects are conditional on the level of office benefits a legislators enjoys, as well as the ideological distance between the legislator and party. More generally, the empirical analysis provides strong support for the substitution effect hypothesis. Thus, modelling interactive effects increases our understanding of party switching

The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions

Global instability in the Ghil--Sellers model

The Ghil--Sellers model, a diffusive one-dimensional energy balance model of Earth's climate, features---for a considerable range of the parameter descriptive of the intensity of the incoming radiation---two stable climate states, where the bistability results from the celebrated ice-albedo feedback. The warm state is qualitatively similar to the present climate, while the cold state corresponds to snowball conditions. Additionally, in the region of bistability, one can find unstable climate states. We find such unstable states by applying for the first time in a geophysical context the so-called edge tracking method, which has been used for studying multiple coexisting states in shear flows. This method has a great potential for studying the global instabilities in multistable systems, and for providing crucial information on the possibility of transitions when forcing is present. We examine robustness, efficiency, and accuracy properties of the edge tracking algorithm. We find that the procedure is the most efficient when taking a single bisection per cycle. Due to the strong diffusivity of the system, the transient dynamics, is approximately confined to the heteroclininc trajectory, connecting the fixed unstable and stable states, after relatively short transient times. Such a constraint dictates a functional relationship between observables. We characterize such a relationship between the global average temperature and a descriptor of nonequilibrium thermodynamics, the large scale temperature gradient between low and high latitudes. We find that a maximum of the temperature gradient is realized at the same value of the average temperature, about 270 K, largely independent of the strength of incoming solar radiation. Due to this maximum, a transient increase and nonmonotonic evolution of the temperature gradient is possible and not untypical. We also examine the structural properties of the system defined by bifurcation diagrams describing the equilibria depending on a system parameter of interest, here the solar strength. We construct new bifurcation diagrams in terms of quantities relevant for describing thermodynamic properties such as the temperature gradient and the material entropy production due to heat transport. We compare our results for the energy balance model to results for the intermediate complexity general circulation model the Planet Simulator and find an interesting qualitative agreement

In-Vivo Biodistribution and Safety of 99mTc-LLP2A-HYNIC in Canine Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

Theranostic agents are critical for improving the diagnosis and treatment of non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL). The peptidomimetic LLP2A is a novel peptide receptor radiotherapy candidate for treating NHL that expresses the activated α4β1 integrin. Tumor-bearing dogs are an excellent model of human NHL with similar clinical characteristics, behavior, and compressed clinical course. Canine in vivo imaging studies will provide valuable biodistribution and affinity information that reflects a diverse clinical population of lymphoma. This may also help to determine potential dose-limiting radiotoxicity to organs in human clinical trials. To validate this construct in a naturally occurring model of NHL, we performed in-vivo molecular targeted imaging and biodistribution in 3 normal dogs and 5 NHL bearing dogs. 99mTc-LLP2A-HYNIC-PEG and 99mTc-LLP2A-HYNIC were successfully synthesized and had very good labeling efficiency and radiochemical purity. 99mTc-LLP2A-HYNIC and 99mTc-LLP2A-HYNIC-PEG had biodistribution in keeping with their molecular size, with 99mTc-LLP2A-HYNIC-PEG remaining longer in the circulation, having higher tissue uptake, and having more activity in the liver compared to 99mTc-LLP2A-HYNIC. 99mTc-LLP2A-HYNIC was mainly eliminated through the kidneys with some residual activity. Radioactivity was reduced to near-background levels at 6 hours after injection. In NHL dogs, tumor showed moderately increased activity over background, with tumor activity in B-cell lymphoma dogs decreasing after chemotherapy. This compound is promising in the development of targeted drug-delivery radiopharmaceuticals and may contribute to translational work in people affected by non-Hodgkin lymphoma