Impact of weather variables on electricity power demand forecast using fuzzy logic technique

Fuzzy logic, being a very robust artificial intelligence technique, was employed to forecast short term load in this work. The algorithm was demonstrated with the help of seven months average daily load data collected from Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN). The outcome realized from the model or simulation illustrate that the projected forecasting technique, which propose the use of weather alteration such as temperature and humidity, gives load forecasting results with substantial precision, in the range of 0.71% Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Using the conventional technique provided forecast with a large MAPE up to 3.18% which shows a high level of inaccuracy or less precision as compared with the use of Fuzzy logic.Keywords: Temperature, Humidity, Fuzzy Logic, Autoregressiv

Would adults with autism be less likely to bury the survivors? An eye movement study of anomalous text reading

In a single eye movement experiment we investigated the effects of context on the time course of local and global anomaly processing during reading in adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). In one condition short paragraph texts contained anomalous target words. Detection of the anomaly was only possible through evaluation of word meaning in relation to the global context of the whole paragraph (Passage Level Anomalies). In another condition the anomaly could be detected via computation of a local thematic violation within a single sentence embedded in the paragraph (Sentence Level Anomalies).For the sentence level anomalies the ASD group, in contrast with the typically developing (TD) group, showed early detection of the anomaly as indexed by regressive eye movements from the critical target word upon fixation. Conversely, for the passage level anomalies, and in contrast with the ASD group, the TD group showed early detection of the anomaly, with increased regressive eye movements once the critical word had been fixated.The reversal of the pattern of regression path data for the two groups, for the sentence and passage level anomalies, is discussed in relation to cognitive accounts of ASD

Spiral and Interlocking Grain in Eucalyptus Dunnii

Spiral grain in 181 trees from a 9-year-old plantation-grown Eucalyptus dunnii was normally distributed with mean 0.33 degrees (to the left) and standard deviation 1.7 degrees, and was affected by family and by crown asymmetry. Interlocking grain was common, exhibiting a mean amplitude of 3.4 degrees (standard deviation 1.5 degrees) and a mean wavelength of 39 mm (standard deviation 12 mm). The relatively large amplitude of interlocking grain means that most trees will have spiral grain that alternates between left and right during each year. The wavelength of interlocking grain is influenced by tree size, but amplitude of interlocking is under genetic control. Both spiral grain and the amplitude of any interlocking were heritable (h2 = 0.99 and 0.63 respectively)

Dystonia management: what to expect from the future? The perspectives of patients and clinicians within DystoniaNet Europe

Improved care for people with dystonia presents a number of challenges. Major gaps in knowledge exist with regard to how to optimize the diagnostic process, how to leverage discoveries in pathophysiology into biomarkers, and how to develop an evidence base for current and novel treatments. These challenges are made greater by the realization of the wide spectrum of symptoms and difficulties faced by people with dystonia, which go well-beyond motor symptoms. A network of clinicians, scientists, and patients could provide resources to facilitate information exchange at different levels, share mutual experiences, and support each other's innovative projects. In the past, collaborative initiatives have been launched, including the American Dystonia Coalition, the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST-which however only existed for a limited time), and the Dutch DystonieNet project. The European Reference Network on Rare Neurological Diseases includes dystonia among other rare conditions affecting the central nervous system in a dedicated stream. Currently, we aim to broaden the scope of these initiatives to a comprehensive European level by further expanding the DystoniaNet network, in close collaboration with the ERN-RND. In line with the ERN-RND, the mission of DystoniaNet Europe is to improve care and quality of life for people with dystonia by, among other endeavors, facilitating access to specialized care, overcoming the disparity in education of medical professionals, and serving as a solid platform to foster international clinical and research collaborations. In this review, both professionals within the dystonia field and patients and caregivers representing Dystonia Europe highlight important unsolved issues and promising new strategies and the role that a European network can play in activating them.Neurological Motor Disorder

Mechanisms of international influence on domestic elite sport policy

In the analysis of sport policy the permeability of domestic policy processes and the significance of non-domestic policy influences is increasingly acknowledged. There is also a growing awareness of the role of domestic institutional arrangements in mediating influences external to the domestic policy system. Taking the interaction between non-domestic influences and domestic policy processes as its starting point the article evaluates, in relation to elite sport, the variety of mechanisms that have been identified as linking the domestic and non-domestic policy spheres. It is argued that the mechanisms vary in relation to the locus of initiative, the basis of engagement, the key relationships and the nature of power relationships. It is also argued that in many countries in relation to elite sport policy there is a dual process in operation of domestically initiated policy learning and non-domestically initiated policy harmonisation through policy regimes

The delivery of personalised, precision medicines via synthetic proteins

Introduction: The design of advanced drug delivery systems based on synthetic and su-pramolecular chemistry has been very successful. Liposomal doxorubicin (Caelyx®), and liposomal daunorubicin (DaunoXome®), estradiol topical emulsion (EstrasorbTM) as well as soluble or erodible polymer systems such as pegaspargase (Oncaspar®) or goserelin acetate (Zoladex®) represent considerable achievements. The Problem: As deliverables have evolved from low molecular weight drugs to biologics (currently representing approximately 30% of the market), so too have the demands made of advanced drug delivery technology. In parallel, the field of membrane trafficking (and endocytosis) has also matured. The trafficking of specific receptors i.e. material to be recycled or destroyed, as well as the trafficking of protein toxins has been well characterized. This, in conjunction with an ability to engineer synthetic, recombinant proteins provides several possibilities. The Solution: The first is using recombinant proteins as drugs i.e. denileukin diftitox (Ontak®) or agalsidase beta (Fabrazyme®). The second is the opportunity to use protein toxin architecture to reach targets that are not normally accessible. This may be achieved by grafting regulatory domains from multiple species to form synthetic proteins, engineered to do multiple jobs. Examples include access to the nucleocytosolic compartment. Herein the use of synthetic proteins for drug delivery has been reviewed

Projected WIMP sensitivity of the LUX-ZEPLIN dark matter experiment

LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) is a next-generation dark matter direct detection experiment that will operate 4850 feet underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota, USA. Using a two-phase xenon detector with an active mass of 7 tonnes, LZ will search primarily for low-energy interactions with weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), which are hypothesized to make up the dark matter in our galactic halo. In this paper, the projected WIMP sensitivity of LZ is presented based on the latest background estimates and simulations of the detector. For a 1000 live day run using a 5.6-tonne fiducial mass, LZ is projected to exclude at 90% confidence level spin-independent WIMP-nucleon cross sections above 1.4 × 10-48cm2 for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP. Additionally, a 5σ discovery potential is projected, reaching cross sections below the exclusion limits of recent experiments. For spin-dependent WIMP-neutron(-proton) scattering, a sensitivity of 2.3 × 10−43 cm2 (7.1 × 10−42 cm2) for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP is expected. With underground installation well underway, LZ is on track for commissioning at SURF in 2020

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an