GENESIS: Co-location of Geodetic Techniques in Space

Improving and homogenizing time and space reference systems on Earth and, more directly, realizing the Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) with an accuracy of 1mm and a long-term stability of 0.1mm/year are relevant for many scientific and societal endeavors. The knowledge of the TRF is fundamental for Earth and navigation sciences. For instance, quantifying sea level change strongly depends on an accurate determination of the geocenter motion but also of the positions of continental and island reference stations, as well as the ground stations of tracking networks. Also, numerous applications in geophysics require absolute millimeter precision from the reference frame, as for example monitoring tectonic motion or crustal deformation for predicting natural hazards. The TRF accuracy to be achieved represents the consensus of various authorities which has enunciated geodesy requirements for Earth sciences. Today we are still far from these ambitious accuracy and stability goals for the realization of the TRF. However, a combination and co-location of all four space geodetic techniques on one satellite platform can significantly contribute to achieving these goals. This is the purpose of the GENESIS mission, proposed as a component of the FutureNAV program of the European Space Agency. The GENESIS platform will be a dynamic space geodetic observatory carrying all the geodetic instruments referenced to one another through carefully calibrated space ties. The co-location of the techniques in space will solve the inconsistencies and biases between the different geodetic techniques in order to reach the TRF accuracy and stability goals endorsed by the various international authorities and the scientific community. The purpose of this white paper is to review the state-of-the-art and explain the benefits of the GENESIS mission in Earth sciences, navigation sciences and metrology.Comment: 31 pages, 9 figures, submitted to Earth, Planets and Space (EPS

Altimetry for the future: Building on 25 years of progress

In 2018 we celebrated 25 years of development of radar altimetry, and the progress achieved by this methodology in the fields of global and coastal oceanography, hydrology, geodesy and cryospheric sciences. Many symbolic major events have celebrated these developments, e.g., in Venice, Italy, the 15th (2006) and 20th (2012) years of progress and more recently, in 2018, in Ponta Delgada, Portugal, 25 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry. On this latter occasion it was decided to collect contributions of scientists, engineers and managers involved in the worldwide altimetry community to depict the state of altimetry and propose recommendations for the altimetry of the future. This paper summarizes contributions and recommendations that were collected and provides guidance for future mission design, research activities, and sustainable operational radar altimetry data exploitation. Recommendations provided are fundamental for optimizing further scientific and operational advances of oceanographic observations by altimetry, including requirements for spatial and temporal resolution of altimetric measurements, their accuracy and continuity. There are also new challenges and new openings mentioned in the paper that are particularly crucial for observations at higher latitudes, for coastal oceanography, for cryospheric studies and for hydrology. The paper starts with a general introduction followed by a section on Earth System Science including Ocean Dynamics, Sea Level, the Coastal Ocean, Hydrology, the Cryosphere and Polar Oceans and the ‘‘Green” Ocean, extending the frontier from biogeochemistry to marine ecology. Applications are described in a subsequent section, which covers Operational Oceanography, Weather, Hurricane Wave and Wind Forecasting, Climate projection. Instruments’ development and satellite missions’ evolutions are described in a fourth section. A fifth section covers the key observations that altimeters provide and their potential complements, from other Earth observation measurements to in situ data. Section 6 identifies the data and methods and provides some accuracy and resolution requirements for the wet tropospheric correction, the orbit and other geodetic requirements, the Mean Sea Surface, Geoid and Mean Dynamic Topography, Calibration and Validation, data accuracy, data access and handling (including the DUACS system). Section 7 brings a transversal view on scales, integration, artificial intelligence, and capacity building (education and training). Section 8 reviews the programmatic issues followed by a conclusion

Observational Constraint on the Climate Sensitivity to Atmospheric CO<SUB>2</SUB> Concentrations Changes Derived from the 1971-2017 Global Energy Budget

International audienceThe estimate of the historical effective climate sensitivity (histeffCS) is revisited with updated historical observations of the global energy budget in order to derive an observational constraint on the effective sensitivity of climate to CO2 (CO2effCS). A regression method based on observations of the energy budget over 1971-2017 is used to estimate the histeffCS (4.34 [2.17; 22.83] K: median and 5%-95% range). Then, climate model simulations are used to evaluate the distance between the histeffCS and the CO2effCS. The observational estimate of the histeffCS and the distance between the histeffCS and the CO2effCS are combined to derive an observational constraint on CO2effCS of 5.46 [2.40; 35.61] K. The main sources of uncertainty in the CO2effCS estimate comes from the uncertainty in aerosol forcing and in the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance. Further uncertainty arises from the pattern effect correction estimated from climate models. There is confidence in the lower end of the 5%-95% range derived from our method because it relies only on reliable recent data and it makes full use of the observational record since 1971. This important result suggests that observations of the global energy budget since 1971 are poorly consistent with climate sensitivity to CO2 below 2.4 K. Unfortunately, the upper end of the 5%-95% range derived from the regression method is above 30 K. This means that the observational constraint derived from observations of the global energy budget since 1971 is too weak (i.e., the uncertainty is too large) to provide any relevant information on the credibility of high CO2effCS

Time-variations of the climate feedback parameter λ are associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

International audienceClimate models suggest that the climate feedback parameter λ, which denotes the magnitude of the Earth radiative response to a change in global surface temperature, varies with time. This is because λ depends on the pattern of sea-surface temperature. However, the timevariability of λ and its relation to the sea-surface temperature pattern has not been evaluated in multi-decadal observations. Here, using up-to-date observations, we evaluate the global energy budget over successive 25-year windows and derive a time-series of λ over 1970-2005. We find λ varied within the range [-3.2,-1.0]W ⋅ m-2 ⋅ K-1 since 1970. These variations are linked to the sea-surface temperature pattern changes associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Climate model simulations forced with observations of historical sea-surface temperature show a 1970-2005 mean λ that is consistent with observations. However, they fail in reproducing observed λ time-variations since 1970 which are associated to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, meaning that climate models underestimate the pattern effect at decadal time scales

Reducing the Uncertainty in the Satellite Altimetry Estimates of Global Mean Sea Level Trends Using Highly Stable Water Vapor Climate Data Records

The global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by 3.3 ± 0.2 mm.yr−1 (68% confidence level) over 1993–2021. The wet troposphere correction (WTC) used to compute the altimetry-based mean sea level data is known to be a large source of error in the GMSL long-term stability. The WTC is derived from the microwave radiometers (MWR) on board the altimetry missions. In order to improve the long-term estimates of the GMSL, we propose an alternative WTC computation based on highly stable climate data records (CDRs) of water vapor derived from independent MWR measurements on board meteorological satellites. A polynomial model is applied to convert water vapor to WTC. The CDR-derived WTC enables reducing the low frequency uncertainty of the WTC applied to the altimetry data, hence reducing the uncertainty of the GMSL trend estimate. Furthermore, over 2016–2021, the comparison of MWR-based with CDR-based WTC shows a likely drift of the Jason-3 MWR WTC on the order of −0.5 mm.yr−1 that would lead to an overestimation of the GMSL trend from 2016

Le niveau de la mer : variations passées, présentes et futures

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Uncertainty in satellite estimates of global mean sea-level changes, trend and acceleration

Satellite altimetry missions now provide more than 25 years of accurate, continuous and quasi-global measurements of sea level along the reference ground track of TOPEX/Poseidon. These measurements are used by different groups to build the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) record, an essential climate change indicator. Estimating a realistic uncertainty in the GMSL record is of crucial importance for climate studies, such as assessing precisely the current rate and acceleration of sea level, analysing the closure of the sea-level budget, understanding the causes of sea-level rise, detecting and attributing the response of sea level to anthropogenic activity, or calculating the Earth's energy imbalance. Previous authors have estimated the uncertainty in the GMSL trend over the period 1993–2014 by thoroughly analysing the error budget of the satellite altimeters and have shown that it amounts to ±0.5 mm yr−1 (90 % confidence level). In this study, we extend our previous results, providing a comprehensive description of the uncertainties in the satellite GMSL record. We analysed 25 years of satellite altimetry data and provided for the first time the error variance–covariance matrix for the GMSL record with a time resolution of 10 days. Three types of errors have been modelled (drifts, biases, noises) and combined together to derive a realistic estimate of the GMSL error variance–covariance matrix. From the latter, we derived a 90 % confidence envelope of the GMSL record on a 10 d basis. Then we used a least squared approach and the error variance–covariance matrix to assess the GMSL trend and acceleration uncertainties over any 5-year time periods and longer in between October 1992 and December 2017. Over 1993–2017, we have found a GMSL trend of 3.35±0.4 mm yr−1 within a 90 % confidence level (CL) and a GMSL acceleration of 0.12±0.07 mm yr−2 (90 % CL). This is in agreement (within error bars) with previous studies. The full GMSL error variance–covariance matrix is freely available online: https://doi.org/10.17882/58344 (Ablain et al., 2018)

Monitoring the regional Ocean Heat Content change over the Atlantic Ocean with the space geodetic approach

The estimation of the regional Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is essential for climate analysis and future climate predictions. In this study, we propose a method to estimate and propagate uncertainties in regional OHC changes. The OHC is estimated with space geodetic steric data corrected from salinity variations estimated with in situ measurements. A variance-covariance matrix method is used to propagate uncertainties from space geodetic data to the OHC change. The integrated OHC change over the Atlantic basin is 0.17 W m-2  which represents 21 % of the global OHC trend, with significant trends observed in 52 % of the Atlantic basin. Uncertainties in OHC trends are mainly attributed to manometric sea level change uncertainties. We validate our space geodetic OHC estimates at two test sites, representing the subtropical and subpolar regions of the North Atlantic, highlighting their importance in understanding climate dynamics. Our results show good agreement between space geodetic estimates and in situ measurements in the North Atlantic region. The space geodetic OHC trends reveal a warming pattern in the southern and western parts of the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf Stream region, while the northeastern part exhibits cooling trends. Overall, our study provides valuable insights and a new framework to estimate regional OHC change and its uncertainties, contributing to a better understanding of the Earth's climate system and its future projections. The space geodetic OHC change product (version 1.0) is freely available at https://doi.org/10.24400/527896/a01-2022.012 (Magellium/LEGOS, 2022

En direct avec les scientifiques: 150 questions sur l'océan et le climat

Ce livre est le témoin vivant d un échange riche et unique entre 16 scientifiques et le grand public. Le changement climatique, en partie dû aux activités humaines, affecte l océan, régulateur important du climat. Les effets s observent déjà à l'échelle du monde : fonte des glaces continentales et océaniques, montée des eaux, acidification de l'océan... et leur impact sur les sociétés humaines s accentuera dans le demi-siècle à venir. Il nous faut anticiper et pour nous adapter, mieux connaître l océan et son rôle dans le climat, trouver des solutions applicables et acceptables par les populations. C est à cette relation étroite et fragile entre le climat, l océan et les hommes que s est intéressée l exposition qui a eu lieu à la Cité des sciences entre le 6 avril 2011 et fin juin 2012. Expérience séduisante, une borne permettait aux visiteurs de tous âges de poser leurs questions, auxquelles 16 scientifiques ont répondu en fonction de leur domaine d expertise. " Comment se forment les vagues ? ", " Les ours polaires survivront-ils au réchauffement climatique ? ", " C est quoi un tsunami ? ", " Venise sera-t-elle un jour sous l eau ? ", " L évolution actuelle du climat est-elle irréversible ? ", " Les changements climatiques vont-ils provoquer des guerres ? ", " Quelle est la mer la plus polluée ? ", " Combien y a-t-il de CO2 dans la mer ? "... En tout, 150 questions et leurs réponses accessibles et ludiques. L ouvrage, mine d informations à la mise en pages graphique et aérée, a été conçu pour que le lecteur s y oriente le plus librement possible, s y promène à son gré selon ses propres interrogations, car chaque réponse peut se lire indépendamment des autres

Monitoring the evolution of coastal zones under various forcing factors using space-based observing systems

International audienceAbout 10% of the global population is currently livingalong the coasts. In many regions, populations are exposed to a variety of natural hazards (e.g., extreme weather such as damaging cyclones and their associated storm surges), as well as to the effects of global climate change (e.g., sea level rise), and to the impacts of human activities (e.g., urbanization). Today, our knowledge regarding these processes still remains limited by the lack of observations. For example, the proportion of the world's shorelines currently affected by erosion still remains uncertain. This lack of information not only prevents us from addressing important scientific questions, but it has also practical implications for coastal managers in charge of managing coastal risks and adapting to climate change. In this poster, we present the outcome of the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Forum on " Monitoring the evolution of coastal zones under various forcing factors using space-based observing systems " (http://www.issibern.ch/forum/costzoneevo/) held at ISSI, Bern, Switzerland on 11-12 October 2016. This poster first reviews the scientific questions with high societal significance, where improved remote sensing observations are needed: this includes (1) separating the contributions of climate-induced sea-level changes and vertical ground motions (uplift and subsidence) in relative (coastal) sea-level changes; (2) understanding the roles, for each different coastal geomorphological setting, of human interventions, extreme events, seasonal interannual and multidecadal variability and trends in driving coastal evolution. In a second step, we review theobservations currently available or needed to address these questions. Overall, we show that since the publication of the latest IGOS report on coastal zone observational requirements (2006), the availability of high resolution topographic data, hydrometeorological reanalysis (e.g., wind, waves, pressures) and historical surge databases have greatly improved the ability to understand and model coastal flooding. In addition, there is a continued need for tide gauges collocated with GNSS and other geodetic data. However, research is needed in many other topics such as the retrieval of changing topographic and bathymetric features at the required accuracy and frequency, and in processing radar altimetry measurements in the coastal ocean. Concerning ocean color, global analyses are expected to provide useful information (e.g. on suspended materials). Besides the improvements of the current observing infrastructure, there is a need of strengthening the exchanges between different scientists and stakeholders concerned with coastal risks and climate change. Today, information on the evolution of coastal zones is managed at local to regional scales by coastal observatories. These entitieslinkscienceinformation to operational observations (including space-based)and coastal stakeholders. We argue that establishing links between global providers of Earth Observation data (such as space agencies), and the emerging networks of coastal observatories, can be beneficial to both coastal science and the management of coastal risks