La meteorología no entiende de fronteras ni administraciones: AEMET y el Servicio Meteorológico de Andorra

El Servicio Meteorológico de Andorra y la Agencia Estatal de Meteorología rubricaron el 6 de junio de 2016 un memorándum de entendimiento en materia de meteorología y climatología. La buena relación entre ambos servicios, a través de la Delegación Territorial de AEMET en Cataluña, propició este acuerdo el cual facilita el intercambio de experiencias y productos entre predictores, meteorólogos y climatólogos, sin olvidar los técnicos que están detrás de la base de la meteorología del siglo XXI: los predictores numéricos. Y es que la recogida, almacenamiento y elaboración de herramientas para la interpretación de datos numéricos, con el pertinente control de calidad, es una tarea no menos laboriosa e importante que un buen pronóstico por Semana Santa o cualquier periodo de vacaciones en el Pirineo. A pesar de que las predicciones (ya sean meteorológicas, marítimas o de aludes) no son descripciones, los usuarios deben saber interpretar y asumir, o no (es preferible no asumirlo), el riesgo que conlleva dicha predicción y actuar en consecuencia

Avisos meteorológicos en el Principat d'Andorra

Ponencia presentada en: VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción, celebrado en los servicios centrales de AEMET, en Madrid, del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018.Andorra es un país con un clima de montaña húmedo de latitudes medias, pero con una fuerte influencia mediterránea al sur del país, donde las características son de un clima mediterráneo continental (MIQUEL et al., 2014). Una parte del país corresponde a la cuenca fluvial de la Ariège (Francia). Además, el norte del país también limita con esta cuenca atlántica, y a través de collados de formación glacial se intercambian frecuentemente características atmosféricas entre ambas vertientes. La extensión y la intensidad de los fenómenos en las diferentes zonas de Andorra dependen en buena parte de la intensidad de las corrientes atmosféricas y de la altura en la que circulan. Por otra parte, el fuerte gradiente altitudinal (más de 2000 metros de desnivel) hace que la meteorología, en algunas ocasiones, sea muy diferente entre los valles que forman los 468 km2 de territorio. Con estas condiciones geográficas, la previsión meteorológica toma complejidad, a la vez que requiere precisión, para predecir con la máxima exactitud posible los tipos de meteoros que afectarán las distintas zonas del país. Desde el Servei Meteorològic Nacional se ha elaborado una división de las zonas meteorológicas que no depende de la división administrativa, sino de cadenas de montañas que frenan o aceleran ciertos procesos atmosféricos que afectan a las diferentes parroquias de Andorra, situadas entre los 900 metros y los 2100 metros

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis

[Purpose]: The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. [Methods]: Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015.Patients were stratified into three age groups:<65 years,65 to 80 years,and ≥ 80 years.The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the CCI to predict mortality risk. [Results]: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327 < 65 years;1291 65-80 years;502 ≥ 80 years) were enrolled.Fever and heart failure were the most common presentations of IE, with no differences among age groups.Patients ≥80 years who underwent surgery were significantly lower compared with other age groups (14.3%,65 years; 20.5%,65-79 years; 31.3%,≥80 years). In-hospital mortality was lower in the <65-year group (20.3%,<65 years;30.1%,65-79 years;34.7%,≥80 years;p < 0.001) as well as 1-year mortality (3.2%, <65 years; 5.5%, 65-80 years;7.6%,≥80 years; p = 0.003).Independent predictors of mortality were age ≥ 80 years (hazard ratio [HR]:2.78;95% confidence interval [CI]:2.32–3.34), CCI ≥ 3 (HR:1.62; 95% CI:1.39–1.88),and non-performed surgery (HR:1.64;95% CI:11.16–1.58).When the three age groups were compared,the AUROC curve for CCI was significantly larger for patients aged <65 years(p < 0.001) for both in-hospital and 1-year mortality. [Conclusion]: There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age ≥ 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI),and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in the <65-year group

Dose-response curves for Diuron and <i>H</i>. <i>ovalis</i> using different PAM fluorometers.

<p>Inhibition (%, relative to solvent control) of A) effective quantum yield (∆<i>F</i>/<i>F</i>_m’) and B) maximum quantum yield <i>(F</i>_v/<i>F</i>_m) of the single leaf, multi-well plate sample orientation. Results from both I-PAM and Mini-PAM following a 24 h exposure period to a series of Diuron concentrations at 100 μmol photons m^-2s^-1. Mean ± SE of nine replicate leaves. Curves exhibited r² between 0.98 and 0.99.</p

Local avalanche warning in Europe

Avalanche exposed settlements, communication lines, ski resort operations, construction sites, tourism and professional guiding are only few examples of activities in the mountains where an active risk management requires local avalanche warnings. While regional avalanche warning is somehow standardized by the rules and standards of the European Avalanche Warning Services (EAWS), local avalanche warning services use a great variety of methods and tools both in the avalanche hazard assessment and in the communication of the results. To gain an overview of the different practices in Europe, the EAWS established a working group on local avalanche warning. The aim of the working group is to establish a general definition of local and regional avalanche warning and to outline the state of the art in Europe. A questionnaire in six languages was circulated in Europe to target local avalanche services collecting more than 200 answers. The analysis of the survey shows a large variety between local avalanche services, very different set-ups and applied methods for assessing and communicating the local avalanche danger. Based on the results of the questionnaire, a first definition of local versus regional avalanche warning assessment is presented

Prosthetic Valve Candida spp. Endocarditis: New Insights Into Long-term Prognosis—The ESCAPE Study

International audienceBackground: Prosthetic valve endocarditis caused by Candida spp. (PVE-C) is rare and devastating, with international guidelines based on expert recommendations supporting the combination of surgery and subsequent azole treatment.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed PVE-C cases collected in Spain and France between 2001 and 2015, with a focus on management and outcome.Results: Forty-six cases were followed up for a median of 9 months. Twenty-two patients (48%) had a history of endocarditis, 30 cases (65%) were nosocomial or healthcare related, and 9 (20%) patients were intravenous drug users. "Induction" therapy consisted mainly of liposomal amphotericin B (L-amB)-based (n = 21) or echinocandin-based therapy (n = 13). Overall, 19 patients (41%) were operated on. Patients <66 years old and without cardiac failure were more likely to undergo cardiac surgery (adjusted odds ratios [aORs], 6.80 [95% confidence interval [CI], 1.59-29.13] and 10.92 [1.15-104.06], respectively). Surgery was not associated with better survival rates at 6 months. Patients who received L-amB alone had a better 6-month survival rate than those who received an echinocandin alone (aOR, 13.52; 95% CI, 1.03-838.10). "Maintenance" fluconazole therapy, prescribed in 21 patients for a median duration of 13 months (range, 2-84 months), led to minor adverse effects.Conclusion: L-amB induction treatment improves survival in patients with PVE-C. Medical treatment followed by long-term maintenance fluconazole may be the best treatment option for frail patients

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis.

The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015.Patients were stratified into three age groups: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327  There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age ≥ 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI),and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in th

State of the climate in 2022: introduction

Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect