Barriers to Eastern Oyster Aquaculture Expansion in Virginia

The eastern oyster once provided major societal and ecosystem benefits, but these benefits have been threatened in recent decades by large declines in oyster harvests. In many areas, recovery of oyster aquaculture faces significant societal opposition and spatial constraints limiting its ability to meet expectations regarding future food needs and provision of ecosystem services. In Virginia, oyster aquaculture has begun to expand, concurrent with an increase in subaqueous leased areas (over 130,000 acres of grounds are currently leased). Though private leases must in theory be used for oyster production, in practice, they can be held for other reasons, such as speculation or intentional exclusion of others. These factors have led to large variation over time and space in the use of leases in lower Chesapeake Bay; and privately leased grounds are now thought to be underutilized for oyster production. This research examined potential barriers to expansion of oyster aquaculture in Virginia. We first evaluated if a lack of space was limiting industry expansion and quantified temporal and spatial trends in the use and productivity of leases. Then, differences in used and non-used leases were investigated in relation to variables thought to be related to not in my backyard attitudes, congestion, speculation, local economic and environmental conditions. Finally, the performance of the Virginia leasing system was compared with those in other states along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. We found limited evidence for spatial constraints on aquaculture leasing, but strong evidence for social and regulatory inefficiencies. Although rates of lease use increased from 2006 to 2016, only 33% of leases were ever used for oyster production and about 63% of leaseholders reported no commercial harvests. Non-used leases tended to be smaller, and were found in more populated, high-income regions, consistent with both speculative and exclusionary uses. Virginia had the second lowest level of total production of cultured oysters per leased acre among the states on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These results indicate that there is room for oyster aquaculture expansion in Virginia if societal, regulatory, and economic barriers can be reduced or if existing leased areas are used more efficiently

Drivers and trends in catch of benthic resources in Chilean TURFs and surrounding open access areas

Beginning in the 1990’s, Chile implemented an extensive Territorial User Rights for Fisheries (TURFs) network that now comprises nearly 1,000 TURFs. This network provides a rare opportunity to examine spatial and temporal trends in TURF use and impacts on surrounding open access areas (OAAs). In this analysis, landings of keyhole limpet (Fissurella spp.), kelp (Lessonia spp.) and red sea urchin (Loxechinus albus) were used to estimate catch-per-unit effort (CPUEs) and catch-per-unit area (CPUAs) indices inside and outside TURFs by fishing cove. For these species, CPUEs and CPUAs in 2015 were significantly higher inside TURFs. However, temporal trends analyzed with a linear mixed effects model indicate that CPUAs inside TURFs have been significantly decreasing since 2000 for keyhole limpet, red sea urchin and for loco (Concholepas concholepas), while in OAAs this measure only decreased for limpet. An elastic net regression was used to better explain catches in OAAs during 2015, including a variety of variables related to the characteristics and activity of proximal TURFs. Results indicate that exogenous factors unrelated to TURF management were the primary drivers of catches in OAAs during 2015 but that factors related to proximal TURFs appear to have a slight negative impact that grows over time. Collectively, these results indicate that while TURFs are associated with higher catch rates than surrounding OAAs, catch rates appear to be decreasing over time and, though limited, the impact of TURFs on surrounding OAAs may be negative. These findings suggest a need for a more nuanced and dynamic approach to spatial management on benthic resources in Chile

The Atlantic surfclam fishery and offshore wind energy development: 2. Assessing economic impacts

The Atlantic surfclam (Spisula solidissima) fishery generates approximately USD 30 million in landings revenues annually, distributed across ports throughout the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Overlap between areas of Atlantic surfclam harvests and offshore wind energy leasing make the fishery vulnerable to exclusion and effort displacement as development expands in the region. An existing integrated bioeconomic agent-based model, including spatial dynamics in Atlantic surfclam stock biology, heterogeneous captain behaviour, and federal management processes, was extended to incorporate costs and revenues for fishing vessels and processors and used to evaluate the potential economic effects of offshore wind development on the Atlantic surfclam fishery. Fishing activity and economic outcomes were simulated under different offshore wind energy development scenarios that impose spatial restrictions on Atlantic surfclam vessel fishing and transiting behaviour. Decreases in the number of trips and shifts in the spatial distribution of fishing effort reduced revenues for Atlantic surfclam fishing vessels and processors by ∼3–15% and increased average fishing costs by \u3c 1–5%, with impacts varying across development scenarios and fishing ports. The modelling approach used in this analysis has potential for addressing additional questions surrounding sustainable ocean multi-use and further quantifying interactions between offshore wind energy development and commercial fisheries

Environmentally-determined production frontiers and lease utilization in Virginia\u27s eastern oyster aquaculture industry

During the last decade, oyster aquaculture has rebounded in Virginia and has been associated with an increase in subaqueous leased area. Production levels remain historically low, however, and many leases are thought to be underutilized. This study uses a novel approach leveraging high-resolution environmental data to evaluate lease utilization and identify constraints on aquaculture development. Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) were used to define environmentally-determined production frontiers, i.e. production possibilities based on empirical observations of aquaculture production, available space, and environmental conditions. Both methods estimated Lease Capacity Utilization (LCU, from 0 to 1) for leases producing oysters with intensive culture methods from 2007 to 2016. Models revealed significant heterogeneity in lease utilization and mean LCU scores of 0.25 (DEA) and 0.27 (SFA), which suggests many leases could scale up production or reduce the size of their lease to more efficiently utilize ambient environmental conditions (i.e., achieve scores closer to 1). Capacity underutilization arising from characteristics of the leaseholder and surrounding spatial environment were quantified and indicated efficiency gains for horizontally integrated leaseholders, though also suggested leases in more populated areas were less efficiently used, possibly due to increased use conflicts. These results highlight potential externalities and tradeoffs associated with aquaculture development and can inform the design of more efficient aquaculture leasing systems

The Atlantic Surfclam Fishery and Offshore Wind Energy Development: 1. Model Development and Verification

Competing pressures imposed by climate-related warming and offshore development have created a need for quantitative approaches that anticipate fisheries responses to these challenges. This study used a spatially explicit, ecological-economic agent-based model integrating dynamics associated with Atlantic surfclam stock biology, decision-making behavior of fishing vessel captains, and fishing fleet behavior to simulate stock biomass, and fishing vessel catch, effort and landings. Simulations were implemented using contemporary Atlantic surfclam stock distributions and characteristics of the surfclam fishing fleet. Simulated distribution of fishable surfclam biomass was determined by a spatially varying mortality rate, fishing by the fleet was controlled by captain decisions based on previous knowledge, information sharing, and the ability to search and find fishing grounds. Quantitative and qualitative evaluation of simulation results showed that this modeling approach sufficiently represents Atlantic surfclam fishery dynamics. A fishing simulation showed that the captain\u27s decision-making and stock knowledge, and the distribution of fishing grounds relative to home ports controlled the landed catch. The approach used herein serves as the basis for future studies examining response of the Atlantic surfclam fishery to a nexus of simultaneous, complex natural and anthropogenic pressures, and provides a framework for similar models for other resources facing similar pressures

The Atlantic Surfclam Fishery and Offshore Wind Energy Development: 2. Assessing Economic Impacts

The Atlantic surfclam (Spisula solidissima) fishery generates approximately USD 30 million in landings revenues annually, distributed across ports throughout the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Overlap between areas of Atlantic surfclam harvests and offshore wind energy leasing make the fishery vulnerable to exclusion and effort displacement as development expands in the region. An existing integrated bioeconomic agent-based model, including spatial dynamics in Atlantic surfclam stock biology, heterogeneous captain behaviour, and federal management processes, was extended to incorporate costs and revenues for fishing vessels and processors and used to evaluate the potential economic effects of offshore wind development on the Atlantic surfclam fishery. Fishing activity and economic outcomes were simulated under different offshore wind energy development scenarios that impose spatial restrictions on Atlantic surfclam vessel fishing and transiting behaviour. Decreases in the number of trips and shifts in the spatial distribution of fishing effort reduced revenues for Atlantic surfclam fishing vessels and processors by ∼3–15% and increased average fishing costs by \u3c 1–5%, with impacts varying across development scenarios and fishing ports. The modelling approach used in this analysis has potential for addressing additional questions surrounding sustainable ocean multi-use and further quantifying interactions between offshore wind energy development and commercial fisheries

The Atlantic surfclam fishery and offshore wind energy development: 1. Model development and verification

Competing pressures imposed by climate-related warming and offshore development have created a need for quantitative approaches that anticipate fisheries responses to these challenges. This study used a spatially explicit, ecological-economic agent-based model integrating dynamics associated with Atlantic surfclam stock biology, decision-making behavior of fishing vessel captains, and fishing fleet behavior to simulate stock biomass, and fishing vessel catch, effort and landings. Simulations were implemented using contemporary Atlantic surfclam stock distributions and characteristics of the surfclam fishing fleet. Simulated distribution of fishable surfclam biomass was determined by a spatially varying mortality rate, fishing by the fleet was controlled by captain decisions based on previous knowledge, information sharing, and the ability to search and find fishing grounds. Quantitative and qualitative evaluation of simulation results showed that this modeling approach sufficiently represents Atlantic surfclam fishery dynamics. A fishing simulation showed that the captain’s decision-making and stock knowledge, and the distribution of fishing grounds relative to home ports controlled the landed catch. The approach used herein serves as the basis for future studies examining response of the Atlantic surfclam fishery to a nexus of simultaneous, complex natural and anthropogenic pressures, and provides a framework for similar models for other resources facing similar pressures

Comparative Performance of Three Length-Based Mortality Estimators

Length‐based methods provide alternatives for estimating the instantaneous total mortality rate (Z) in exploited marine populations when data are not available for age‐based methods. We compared the performance of three equilibrium length‐based methods: the length‐converted catch curve (LCCC), the Beverton–Holt equation (BHE), and the length‐based spawning potential ratio (LB‐SPR) method. The LCCC and BHE are two historically common procedures that use length as a proxy for age. From a truncated length‐frequency distribution of fully selected animals, the LCCC estimates Z with a regression of the logarithm of catch at length by the midpoint of the length‐bins, while the BHE estimates Z as a function of the mean length. The LB‐SPR method is a likelihood‐based population dynamics model, which—unlike the LCCC and BHE—does not require data truncation. Using Monte Carlo simulations across a range of scenarios with varying mortality and life history characteristics, our study showed that neither the LCCC nor the BHE was uniformly superior in terms of bias or root mean square error across simulations, but these estimators performed better than LB‐SPR, which had the largest bias in most cases. Generally, if the ratio of natural mortality (M) to the von Bertalanffy growth rate parameter (K) is low, then the BHE is most preferred, although there is likely to be high bias and low precision. If M/K is high, then the LCCC and BHE performed better and similarly to each other. Differences in performance among commonly used truncation methods for the LCCC and BHE were small. The LB‐SPR method did not perform as well as the classical methods but may still be of interest because it provides estimates of a logistic selectivity curve. The M/K ratio provided the most contrast in the performance of the three methods, suggesting that it should be considered for predicting the likely performance of length‐based mortality estimators

Integrating human dimensions in decadal-scale prediction for marine social–ecological systems: lighting the grey zone

The dynamics of marine systems at decadal scales are notoriously hard to predict—hence references to this timescale as the “grey zone” for ocean prediction. Nevertheless, decadal-scale prediction is a rapidly developing field with an increasing number of applications to help guide ocean stewardship and sustainable use of marine environments. Such predictions can provide industry and managers with information more suited to support planning and management over strategic timeframes, as compared to seasonal forecasts or long-term (century-scale) predic- tions. The most significant advances in capability for decadal-scale prediction over recent years have been for ocean physics and biogeochemistry, with some notable advances in ecological prediction skill. In this paper, we argue that the process of “lighting the grey zone” by providing im- proved predictions at decadal scales should also focus on including human dimensions in prediction systems to better meet the needs and priorities of end users. Our paper reviews information needs for decision-making at decadal scales and assesses current capabilities for meeting these needs. We identify key gaps in current capabilities, including the particular challenge of integrating human elements into decadal prediction systems. We then suggest approaches for overcoming these challenges and gaps, highlighting the important role of co-production of tools and scenarios, to build trust and ensure uptake with end users of decadal prediction systems. We also highlight opportunities for combining narratives and quantitative predictions to better incorporate the human dimension in future efforts to light the grey zone of decadal-scale prediction

Adaptations of a fishery socio-ecological system in the face of large-scale changes: opportunities and barriers learned from the Bay of Biscay’s anchovy fishery

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