An in-depth case study: modelling an information barrier with Bayesian Belief Networks

We present in detail a quantitative Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model of the use of an information barrier system during a nuclear arms control inspection, and an analysis of this model using the capabilities of a Satis ability Modulo Theory (SMT) solver. Arms control veri cation processes do not in practice allow the parties involved to gather complete information about each other, and therefore any model we use must be able to cope with the limited information, subjective assessment and uncertainty in this domain. We have previously extended BBNs to allow this kind of uncertainty in parameter values (such as probabilities) to be re ected; these constrained BBNs (cBBNs) o er the potential for more robust modelling, which in that study we demonstrated with a simple information barrier model. We now present a much more detailed model of a similar veri cation process, based on the technical capabilities and deployment concept of the UK-Norway Initiative (UKNI) Information Barrier system, demonstrating the scalability of our previously-presented approach. We discuss facets of the model itself in detail, before analysing pertinent questions of interest to give examples of the power of this approach

Quantifying Observational Projection Effects Using Molecular Cloud Simulations

The physical properties of molecular clouds are often measured using spectral-line observations, which provide the only probes of the clouds' velocity structure. It is hard, though, to assess whether and to what extent intensity features in position-position-velocity (PPV) space correspond to "real" density structures in position-position-position (PPP) space. In this paper, we create synthetic molecular cloud spectral-line maps of simulated molecular clouds, and present a new technique for measuring the reality of individual PPV structures. Using a dendrogram algorithm, we identify hierarchical structures in both PPP and PPV space. Our procedure projects density structures identified in PPP space into corresponding intensity structures in PPV space and then measures the geometric overlap of the projected structures with structures identified from the synthetic observation. The fractional overlap between a PPP and PPV structure quantifies how well the synthetic observation recovers information about the three-dimensional structure. Applying this machinery to a set of synthetic observations of CO isotopes, we measure how well spectral-line measurements recover mass, size, velocity dispersion, and virial parameter for a simulated star-forming region. By disabling various steps of our analysis, we investigate how much opacity, chemistry, and gravity affect measurements of physical properties extracted from PPV cubes. For the simulations used here, which offer a decent, but not perfect, match to the properties of a star-forming region like Perseus, our results suggest that superposition induces a ~40% uncertainty in masses, sizes, and velocity dispersions derived from$^{13}$CO (J = 1-0). As would be expected, superposition and confusion is worst in regions where the filling factor of emitting material is large. The virial parameter is most affected by superposition, such that estimates of the virial parameter derived from PPV and PPP information typically disagree by a factor of ~2. This uncertainty makes it particularly difficult to judge whether gravitational or kinetic energy dominate a given region, since the majority of virial parameter measurements fall within a factor of two of the equipartition level α ~ 2.Astronom

Giardia duodenalis and Cryptosporidium occurrence in Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) exposed to varied levels of human interaction

AbstractGiardia and Cryptosporidium are amongst the most common protozoan parasites identified as causing enteric disease in pinnipeds. A number of Giardia assemblages and Cryptosporidium species and genotypes are common in humans and terrestrial mammals and have also been identified in marine mammals. To investigate the occurrence of these parasites in an endangered marine mammal, the Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea), genomic DNA was extracted from faecal samples collected from wild populations (n = 271) in Southern and Western Australia and three Australian captive populations (n = 19). These were screened using PCR targeting the 18S rRNA of Giardia and Cryptosporidium. Giardia duodenalis was detected in 28 wild sea lions and in seven captive individuals. Successful sequencing of the 18S rRNA gene assigned 27 Giardia isolates to assemblage B and one to assemblage A, both assemblages commonly found in humans. Subsequent screening at the gdh and β-giardin loci resulted in amplification of only one of the 35 18S rRNA positive samples at the β-giardin locus. Sequencing at the β-giardin locus assigned the assemblage B 18S rRNA confirmed isolate to assemblage AI. The geographic distribution of sea lion populations sampled in relation to human settlements indicated that Giardia presence in sea lions was highest in populations less than 25 km from humans. Cryptosporidium was not detected by PCR screening in either wild colonies or captive sea lion populations. These data suggest that the presence of G. duodenalis in the endangered Australian sea lion is likely the result of dispersal from human sources. Multilocus molecular analyses are essential for the determination of G. duodenalis assemblages and subsequent inferences on transmission routes to endangered marine mammal populations

Transient thermal effects in solid noble gases as materials for the detection of Dark Matter

The transient phenomena produced in solid noble gases by the stopping of the recoils resulting from the elastic scattering processes of WIMPs from the galactic halo were modelled, as dependencies of the temperatures of lattice and electronic subsystems on the distance to the recoil's trajectory, and time from its passage. The peculiarities of these thermal transients produced in Ar, Kr and Xe were analysed for different initial temperatures and WIMP energies, and were correlated with the characteristics of the targets and with the energy loss of the recoils. The results were compared with the thermal spikes produced by the same WIMPs in Si and Ge. In the range of the energy of interest, up to tens of keV for the self-recoil, local phase transitions solid - liquid and even liquid - gas were found possible, and the threshold parameters were established.Comment: Minor corrections and updated references; accepted to JCA

Free carrier effects in gallium nitride epilayers: the valence band dispersion

The dispersion of the A-valence-band in GaN has been deduced from the observation of high-index magneto-excitonic states in polarised interband magneto-reflectivity and is found to be strongly non-parabolic with a mass in the range 1.2-1.8 m_{e}. It matches the theory of Kim et al. [Phys. Rev. B 56, 7363 (1997)] extremely well, which also gives a strong k-dependent A-valence-band mass. A strong phonon coupling leads to quenching of the observed transitions at an LO-phonon energy above the band gap and a strong non-parabolicity. The valence band was deduced from subtracting from the reduced dispersion the electron contribution with a model that includes a full treatment of the electron-phonon interaction.Comment: Revtex, 4 pages, 5 figure

Efficacy and toxicity of intravenous iron in a mouse model of critical care anemia

OBJECTIVE: Anemia is common in critically ill patients, due to inflammation and blood loss. Anemia can be associated with iron deficiency and low serum hepcidin levels. However, iron administration in this setting remains controversial because of its potential toxicity, including oxidative stress induction and sepsis facilitation. The objective of this work was to determine the efficacy and toxicity of iron administration using a mouse model mimicking critical care anemia as well as a model of acute septicemia. DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, open label controlled animal study. SETTING: University-based research laboratory. SUBJECTS: C57BL/6 and OF1 mice. INTERVENTIONS: Intraperitoneal injection of zymosan inducing generalized inflammation in C57BL/6 mice, followed in our full model by repeated phlebotomies. A dose equivalent to 15 mg/kg of ferric carboxymaltose was injected intravenously on day 5. To assess the toxicity of iron in a septicemia model, OF1 mice were simultaneously injected with iron and different Escherichia coli strains. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: To investigate the effect of iron on oxidative stress, we measured reactive oxygen species production in the blood using luminol-amplified chemiluminescence and superoxide dismutase 2 messenger RNA levels in the liver. These markers of oxidative stress were increased after iron administration in control mice but not in zymosan-treated mice. Liver catalase messenger RNA levels decreased in iron-treated control mice. Iron administration was not associated with increased mortality in the septicemia model or in the generalized inflammation model. Iron increased hemoglobin levels in mice fed with a low iron diet and subjected to phlebotomies and zymosan 2 wks after treatment administration. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse effects of intravenous iron supplementation by ferric carboxymaltose seem to be minimal in our animal models. Furthermore, iron appears to be effective in correcting anemia, despite inflammation. Studies of efficacy and safety of iron in critically ill patients are warranted

The linewidth-size relationship in the dense ISM of the Central Molecular Zone

The linewidth (sigma) - size (R) relationship has been extensively measured and analysed, in both the local ISM and in nearby normal galaxies. Generally, a power-law describes the relationship well with an index ranging from 0.2-0.6, now referred to as one of "Larson's Relationships." The nature of turbulence and star formation is considered to be intimately related to these relationships, so evaluating the sigma-R correlations in various environments is important for developing a comprehensive understanding of the ISM. We measure the sigma-R relationship in the Central Molecular Zone (CMZ) of the Galactic Centre using spectral line observations of the high density tracers N2H+, HCN, H13CN, and HCO+. We use dendrograms, which map the hierarchical nature of the position-position-velocity (PPV) data, to compute sigma and R of contiguous structures. The dispersions range from ~2-30 km/s in structures spanning sizes 2-40 pc, respectively. By performing Bayesian inference, we show that a power-law with exponent 0.3-1.1 can reasonably describe the sigma-R trend. We demonstrate that the derived sigma-R relationship is independent of the locations in the PPV dataset where sigma and R are measured. The uniformity in the sigma-R relationship suggests turbulence in the CMZ is driven on the large scales beyond >30 pc. We compare the CMZ sigma-R relationship to that measured in the Galactic molecular cloud Perseus. The exponents between the two systems are similar, suggestive of a connection between the turbulent properties within a cloud to its ambient medium. Yet, the velocity dispersion in the CMZ is systematically higher, resulting in a coefficient that is nearly five times larger. The systematic enhancement of turbulent velocities may be due to the combined effects of increased star formation activity, larger densities, and higher pressures relative to the local ISM.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRA

Noisy Monte Carlo: Convergence of Markov chains with approximate transition kernels

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution $\pi$ by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel $P$ such that $\pi$ is invariant under $P$. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible to draw from the transition kernel $P$. For instance, this is the case with massive datasets, where is it prohibitively expensive to calculate the likelihood and is also the case for intractable likelihood models arising from, for example, Gibbs random fields, such as those found in spatial statistics and network analysis. A natural approach in these cases is to replace $P$ by an approximation $\hat{P}$. Using theory from the stability of Markov chains we explore a variety of situations where it is possible to quantify how 'close' the chain given by the transition kernel $\hat{P}$ is to the chain given by $P$. We apply these results to several examples from spatial statistics and network analysis.Comment: This version: results extended to non-uniformly ergodic Markov chain

A new method for tracking of motor skill learning through practical application of Fitts’ law

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.A novel upper limb motor skill measure, task productivity rate (TPR) was developed integrating speed and spatial error, delivered by a practical motor skill rehabilitation task (MSRT). This prototype task involved placement of 5 short pegs horizontally on a spatially configured rail array. The stability of TPR was tested on 18 healthy right-handed adults (10 women, 8 men, median age 29 years) in a prospective single-session quantitative within-subjects study design. Manipulations of movement rate 10% faster and slower relative to normative states did not significantly affect TPR, F(1.387, 25.009) = 2.465, p = .121. A significant linear association between completion time and error was highest during the normative state condition (Pearson's r = .455, p < .05). Findings provided evidence that improvements in TPR over time reflected motor learning with possible changes in coregulation behavior underlying practice under different conditions. These findings extend Fitts’ law theory to tracking of practical motor skill using a dexterity task, which could have potential clinical applications in rehabilitation