Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Assessing Internet addiction using the parsimonious Internet addiction components model - a preliminary study [forthcoming]

Internet usage has grown exponentially over the last decade. Research indicates that excessive Internet use can lead to symptoms associated with addiction. To date, assessment of potential Internet addiction has varied regarding populations studied and instruments used, making reliable prevalence estimations difficult. To overcome the present problems a preliminary study was conducted testing a parsimonious Internet addiction components model based on Griffiths’ addiction components (2005), including salience, mood modification, tolerance, withdrawal, conflict, and relapse. Two validated measures of Internet addiction were used (Compulsive Internet Use Scale [CIUS], Meerkerk et al., 2009, and Assessment for Internet and Computer Game Addiction Scale [AICA-S], Beutel et al., 2010) in two independent samples (ns = 3,105 and 2,257). The fit of the model was analysed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Results indicate that the Internet addiction components model fits the data in both samples well. The two sample/two instrument approach provides converging evidence concerning the degree to which the components model can organize the self-reported behavioural components of Internet addiction. Recommendations for future research include a more detailed assessment of tolerance as addiction component

Predictors of adverse events after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: A meta-analysis of case reports

Introduction: Endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair is a life-saving intervention. Nevertheless, complications have a major impact. We review the evidence from case reports for risk factors of complications after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. Case presentation: We selected case reports from PubMed reporting original data on adverse events after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. Extracted risk factors were: age, sex, aneurysm diameter, comorbidities, re-interventions, at least one follow-up visit being missed or refusal of a re-intervention by the patient. Extracted outcomes were: death, rupture and (non-)device-related complications. In total 113 relevant articles were selected. These reported on 173 patients. A fatal outcome was reported in 15% (N = 26) of which 50% came after an aneurysm rupture (N = 13). Non-fatal aneurysm rupture occurred in 15% (N = 25). Endoleaks were reported in 52% of the patients (N = 90). In half of the patients with a rupture no prior endoleak was discovered during follow-up. In 83% of the patients one or more re-interventions were performed (N = 143). Mortality was higher among women (risk ratio 2.9; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 6.0), while the presence of comorbidities was strongly associated with both ruptures (risk ratio 1.6; 95% confidence interval 0.9 to 2.9) and mortality (risk ratio 2.1; 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 4.7). Missing one or more follow-up visits (≥1) or refusal of a re-intervention by the patient was strongly related to both ruptures (risk ratio 4.7; 95% confidence interval 3.1 to 7.0) and mortality (risk ratio 3.8; 95% confidence interval 1.7 to 8.3). Conclusion: Female gender, the presence of comorbidities and at least one follow-up visit being missed or refusal of a re-intervention by the patient appear to increase the risk for mortality after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. Larger aneurysm diameter, higher age and multimorbidity at the time of surgery appear to increase the risk for rupture and other complications after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. These risk factors deserve further attention in future studies

π0\pi^0 photoproduction on the proton for photon energies from 0.675 to 2.875 GeV

Differential cross sections for the reaction $\gamma p \to p \pi^0$ have been measured with the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) and a tagged photon beam with energies from 0.675 to 2.875 GeV. The results reported here possess greater accuracy in the absolute normalization than previous measurements. They disagree with recent CB-ELSA measurements for the process at forward scattering angles. Agreement with the SAID and MAID fits is found below 1 GeV. The present set of cross sections has been incorporated into the SAID database, and exploratory fits have been extended to 3 GeV. Resonance couplings have been extracted and compared to previous determinations.Comment: 18 pages, 48 figure

Evidence for a Grooming Claw in a North American Adapiform Primate: Implications for Anthropoid Origins

Among fossil primates, the Eocene adapiforms have been suggested as the closest relatives of living anthropoids (monkeys, apes, and humans). Central to this argument is the form of the second pedal digit. Extant strepsirrhines and tarsiers possess a grooming claw on this digit, while most anthropoids have a nail. While controversial, the possible presence of a nail in certain European adapiforms has been considered evidence for anthropoid affinities. Skeletons preserved well enough to test this idea have been lacking for North American adapiforms. Here, we document and quantitatively analyze, for the first time, a dentally associated skeleton of Notharctus tenebrosus from the early Eocene of Wyoming that preserves the complete bones of digit II in semi-articulation. Utilizing twelve shape variables, we compare the distal phalanges of Notharctus tenebrosus to those of extant primates that bear nails (n = 21), tegulae (n = 4), and grooming claws (n = 10), and those of non-primates that bear claws (n = 7). Quantitative analyses demonstrate that Notharctus tenebrosus possessed a grooming claw with a surprisingly well-developed apical tuft on its second pedal digit. The presence of a wide apical tuft on the pedal digit II of Notharctus tenebrosus may reflect intermediate morphology between a typical grooming claw and a nail, which is consistent with the recent hypothesis that loss of a grooming claw occurred in a clade containing adapiforms (e.g. Darwinius masillae) and anthropoids. However, a cladistic analysis including newly documented morphologies and thorough representation of characters acknowledged to have states constituting strepsirrhine, haplorhine, and anthropoid synapomorphies groups Notharctus tenebrosus and Darwinius masillae with extant strepsirrhines rather than haplorhines suggesting that the form of pedal digit II reflects substantial homoplasy during the course of early primate evolution

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug induced acute kidney injury in the community dwelling general population and people with chronic kidney disease:Systematic review and meta-analysis

Complete search strategy. The complete search strategy for the systematic review for both Medline and Embase. (DOCX 22 kb

The Distressed Brain: A Group Blind Source Separation Analysis on Tinnitus

Background: Tinnitus, the perception of a sound without an external sound source, can lead to variable amounts of distress. Methodology: In a group of tinnitus patients with variable amounts of tinnitus related distress, as measured by the Tinnitus Questionnaire (TQ), an electroencephalography (EEG) is performed, evaluating the patients ’ resting state electrical brain activity. This resting state electrical activity is compared with a control group and between patients with low (N = 30) and high distress (N = 25). The groups are homogeneous for tinnitus type, tinnitus duration or tinnitus laterality. A group blind source separation (BSS) analysis is performed using a large normative sample (N = 84), generating seven normative components to which high and low tinnitus patients are compared. A correlation analysis of the obtained normative components ’ relative power and distress is performed. Furthermore, the functional connectivity as reflected by lagged phase synchronization is analyzed between the brain areas defined by the components. Finally, a group BSS analysis on the Tinnitus group as a whole is performed. Conclusions: Tinnitus can be characterized by at least four BSS components, two of which are posterior cingulate based, one based on the subgenual anterior cingulate and one based on the parahippocampus. Only the subgenual component correlates with distress. When performed on a normative sample, group BSS reveals that distress is characterized by two anterior cingulate based components. Spectral analysis of these components demonstrates that distress in tinnitus is relate

Proprioception deficiency in articular cartilage lesions of the knee

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the proprioceptive function of patients with isolated articular cartilage lesions of the knee as compared to normal controls. Methods: The Cartilage group consisted of eight subjects with radiologically and arthroscopically confirmed, isolated, unilateral, articular cartilage lesions of the knee (Outerbridge grade III or IV). They were compared to 50 normal controls. Knee proprioception was assessed by dynamic postural stabilometry using the Biodex Balance SD System. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) were used to evaluate all subjects. Results: Proprioception of the injured knee of the Cartilage group was significantly poorer compared to that of the control group (p < 0.001). A significant proprioceptive deficit also was observed when the uninjured knees of the Cartilage group were compared to those in the Control group (p = 0.003). There was no significant proprioceptive difference between the injured and the contra-lateral uninjured knee of the Cartilage group (p = 0.116). A significant correlation was found between the proprioception measurements of the injured and uninjured knee of the Cartilage group (r = 0.76, p = 0.030). A significant difference was observed in all PROMs (p < 0.001) between the Cartilage and Control groups. Conclusions: Patients with isolated articular cartilage lesions of the knee had a significant proprioceptive deficit as compared to normal controls. The deficiency was profound and even affected the proprioceptive function of the contra-lateral uninjured knee. This study has shown that articular cartilage lesions have a major influence on knee proprioception. However, it remains uncertain as to whether a proprioceptive deficit leads to osteoarthritis or is a consequence of it

Chagas Disease Risk in Texas

Chagas disease is endemic in Texas and spread through triatomine insect vectors known as kissing bugs, assassin bugs, or cone–nosed bugs, which transmit the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. We examined the threat of Chagas disease due to the three most prevalent vector species and from human case occurrences and human population data at the county level. We modeled the distribution of each vector species using occurrence data from México and the United States and environmental variables. We then computed the ecological risk from the distribution models and combined it with disease incidence data to produce a composite risk map which was subsequently used to calculate the populations expected to be at risk for the disease. South Texas had the highest relative risk. We recommend mandatory reporting of Chagas disease in Texas, testing of blood donations in high risk counties, human and canine testing for Chagas disease antibodies in high risk counties, and that a joint initiative be developed between the United States and México to combat Chagas disease