Impacts du changement climatique sur l'hydrologie et la gestion des ressources en eau du bassin de la Meuse (synthèse bibliographique)

Impacts of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Meuse catchment. A review. This review examines the consequences of climate change on the hydrology of the Meuse catchment and on various water-related socio-economic sectors. It sums up the different modeling approaches in hydrological modeling, placing emphasis on current modeling assumptions and the restrictions inherent within them. It is useful to consider land use evolution and adapted management within the context of climate change, particularly with reference to agriculture. More specifically, a broader usage of physically-based hydrological models would be useful in order to represent climate change scenarios and possible adaptation tracks at the catchment scale. These physically-based hydrological models are able to represent a wide range of phenomena occurring in the water-soil-plant continuum. They thus allow a refinement of global hydrological solutions at the catchment scale, especially during low flow periods. Moreover, such models pave the way for the analysis of scenarios aimed at creating adaptation in the use and management of soils

Bayesian specification analysis and estimation of simultaneous equation models using Monte Carlo methods

Bayesian procedures for specification analysis or diagnostic checking of modeling assumptions for structural equations of econometric models are developed and applied using Monte Carlo numerical methods. Checks on the validity of identifying restrictions, exogeneity assumptions and other specifying assumptions are performed using posterior distributions for discrepancy vectors and functions representing departures from specifying assumptions. Several mappings or functions of reduced form coefficients are defined and their posterior distributions are computed. A restricted reduced form approach is used to compute posterior distributions for structural parameters. These procedures are applied in analyses of two econometric models

Safety of co-administration versus separate administration of the same vaccines in children: a systematic literature review

The growing number of available vaccines that can be potentially co-administered makes the assessment of the safety of vaccine co-administration increasingly relevant but complex. We aimed to synthesize the available scientific evidence on the safety of vaccine co-administrations in children by performing a systematic literature review of studies assessing the safety of vaccine co-administrations in children between 1999 and 2019, in line with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Fifty studies compared co-administered vaccines versus the same vaccines administered separately. The most frequently studied vaccines included quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate (MenACWY) vaccine, diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis (DTaP) or tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccines, diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis adsorbed, hepatitis B, inactivated poliovirus and Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate (DTaP-HepB-IPV/Hib) vaccine, measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, and pneumococcal conjugate 7-valent (PCV7) or 13-valent (PCV13) vaccines. Of this, 16% (n = 8) of the studies reported significantly more adverse events following immunization (AEFI) while in 10% (n = 5) significantly fewer adverse events were found in the co-administration groups. Statistically significant differences between co-administration and separate administration were found for 16 adverse events, for 11 different vaccine co-administrations. In general, studies briefly described safety and one-third of studies lacked any statistical assessment of AEFI. Overall, the evidence on the safety of vaccine co-administrations compared to separate vaccine administrations is inconclusive and there is a paucity of large post-licensure studies addressing this issue

Ignition of thermally sensitive explosives between a contact surface and a shock

The dynamics of ignition between a contact surface and a shock wave is investigated using a one-step reaction model with Arrhenius kinetics. Both large activation energy asymptotics and high-resolution finite activation energy numerical simulations are employed. Emphasis is on comparing and contrasting the solutions with those of the ignition process between a piston and a shock, considered previously. The large activation energy asymptotic solutions are found to be qualitatively different from the piston driven shock case, in that thermal runaway first occurs ahead of the contact surface, and both forward and backward moving reaction waves emerge. These waves take the form of quasi-steady weak detonations that may later transition into strong detonation waves. For the finite activation energies considered in the numerical simulations, the results are qualitatively different to the asymptotic predictions in that no backward weak detonation wave forms, and there is only a weak dependence of the evolutionary events on the acoustic impedance of the contact surface. The above conclusions are relevant to gas phase equation of state models. However, when a large polytropic index more representative of condensed phase explosives is used, the large activation energy asymptotic and finite activation energy numerical results are found to be in quantitative agreement

Hidden genetic variation in LCA9-associated congenital blindness explained by 5′UTR mutations and copy-number variations of NMNAT1

Leber congenital amaurosis (LCA) is a severe autosomal-recessive retinal dystrophy leading to congenital blindness. A recently identified LCA gene is NMNAT1, located in the LCA9 locus. Although most mutations in blindness genes are coding variations, there is accumulating evidence for hidden noncoding defects or structural variations (SVs). The starting point of this study was an LCA9-associated consanguineous family in which no coding mutations were found in the LCA9 region. Exploring the untranslated regions of NMNAT1 revealed a novel homozygous 5'UTR variant, c.-70A>T. Moreover, an adjacent 5'UTR variant, c.-69C>T, was identified in a second consanguineous family displaying a similar phenotype. Both 5'UTR variants resulted in decreased NMNAT1 mRNA abundance in patients' lymphocytes, and caused decreased luciferase activity in human retinal pigment epithelial RPE-1 cells. Second, we unraveled pseudohomozygosity of a coding NMNAT1 mutation in two unrelated LCA patients by the identification of two distinct heterozygous partial NMNAT1 deletions. Molecular characterization of the breakpoint junctions revealed a complex Alu-rich genomic architecture. Our study uncovered hidden genetic variation in NMNAT1-associated LCA and emphasized a shift from coding to noncoding regulatory mutations and repeat-mediated SVs in the molecular pathogenesis of heterogeneous recessive disorders such as hereditary blindness

On the criticality of inferred models

Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct the pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to a phase transition. On one side, we show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher Information) is directly related to the model's susceptibility. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. On the other, this region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time-scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, version to appear in JSTA

Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979–2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5& deg; & times;0.5 & deg; resolution using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index ( Combining double low line 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation, annual positive flux trends of 0.2% and 0.52% throughout the entire period are found in Asia and China, respectively, related to a positive trend in temperature and solar radiation. The impact of oil palm expansion in Indonesia and Malaysia is to enhance the trends over that region, e.g., from 1.17% to 1.5% in 1979-2005 in Malaysia. A negative emission trend is derived in India (ĝ'0.4%), owing to the negative trend in solar radiation data associated with the strong dimming effect likely due to increasing aerosol loadings. The bottom-up emissions are compared to field campaign measurements in Borneo and South China and further evaluated against top-down isoprene emission estimates constrained by GOME-2/MetOp-A formaldehyde columns through 2007-2012. The satellite-based estimates appear to support our assumptions, and confirm the lower emission rate in tropical forests of Indonesia and Malaysia. Additional flux measurements are clearly needed to characterize the spatial variability of emission factors better. Finally, a decreasing trend in the inferred top-down Chinese emissions since 2007 is in line with recorded cooling in China after that year, thus suggesting that the satellite HCHO columns are able to capture climate-induced changes in emissions. © 2014 Author(s)

Zombies, time machines and brains: Science fiction made real in immersive theatres

Critical thought on immersive theatres is gathering in pace with many arguments centred on explorations of audience/performer interaction and the unique relationship these theatres create. Within this paper I look beyond these debates in order to consider the implications of immersive theatres within contemporary culture, with the aim of furthering the ways in which immersive theatres are presently being framed and discussed. Theatre and science fiction have shared a somewhat limited relationship compared to their burgeoning usage within other forms of entertainment. This paper focuses on how the conceits of science fiction are being staged within this theatrical setting. Primary focus is given to Punchdrunk's… and darkness descended (2011) and The Crash of the Elysium (2011–2012). This is considered alongside The Republic of the Imagination's (TROTI) Cerebellium (2012–14), an original narrative created for the performance which has been subsequently developed over a three-year period to date. This discussion is presented and framed through my personal experience as both a performer in Cerebellium and (later) as audience member. The particular use of dystopian narratives and alternate worlds is given consideration, with reflection on the way these works destabilize and call into question the audience's sense of self either through their ability to survive or understand their sense of self. By making evident the spectrum of practice, I endeavour to delve further into identifying and de-mystifying immersive theatres and their differences to conventional theatre