A Growth Reference for Mid Upper Arm Circumference for Age among School Age Children and Adolescents, with Validation for Mortality in Two Cohorts

OBJECTIVES: To construct growth curves for mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC)-for-age z score for 5-19 year olds that accord with the World Health Organization growth standards, and to evaluate their discriminatory performance for subsequent mortality. DESIGN: Growth curve construction and longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: United States and international growth data, and cohorts in Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. PARTICIPANTS The Health Examination Survey (HES)/National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) US population datasets (age 5-25 years), which were used to construct the 2007 WHO growth reference for body mass index in this age group, were merged with an imputed dataset matching the distribution of the WHO 2006 growth standards age 2-6 years. Validation data were from 685 HIV infected children aged 5-17 years participating in the Antiretroviral Research for Watoto (ARROW) trial in Uganda and Zimbabwe; and 1741 children aged 5-13 years discharged from a rural Kenyan hospital (3.8% HIV infected). Both cohorts were followed-up for survival during one year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Concordance with WHO 2006 growth standards at age 60 months and survival during one year according to MUAC-for-age and body mass index-for-age z scores. RESULTS: The new growth curves transitioned smoothly with WHO growth standards at age 5 years. MUAC-for-age z scores of −2 to −3 and less than−3, compared with −2 or more, was associated with hazard ratios for death within one year of 3.63 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 14.7; P=0.07) and 11.1 (3.40 to 36.0; P<0.001), respectively, among ARROW trial participants; and 2.22 (1.01 to 4.9; P=0.04) and 5.15 (2.49 to 10.7; P<0.001), respectively, among Kenyan children after discharge from hospital. The AUCs for MUAC-for-age and body mass index-for-age z scores for discriminating subsequent mortality were 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.92) and 0.75 (0.63 to 0.86) in the ARROW trial (absolute difference 0.06, 95% confidence interval −0.032 to 0.16; P=0.2) and 0.73 (0.65 to 0.80) and 0.58 (0.49 to 0.67), respectively, in Kenya (absolute difference in AUC 0.15, 0.07 to 0.23; P=0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: The MUAC-for-age z score is at least as effective as the body mass index-for-age z score for assessing mortality risks associated with undernutrition among African school aged children and adolescents. MUAC can provide simplified screening and diagnosis within nutrition and HIV programmes, and in research

A growth reference for mid upper arm circumference for age among school age children and adolescents, and validation for mortality: growth curve construction and longitudinal cohort study

Objectives Worldwide, school age children and adolescents are vulnerable to conflict and food insecurity and HIV-infected children are increasingly surviving into adolescence. WHO recommends assessing acute malnutrition in this age group using body mass index-for-age Z scores (BMIz). For under-fives, mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) is the mainstay of community diagnosis of acute malnutrition, is simple to perform and predicts survival better than weight-for-height Z scores. MUAC is little-used in older children and adolescents because there is no accepted international reference. This study aimed to construct growth curves for MUAC-for-age Z score (MUACz) for 5-19 year olds that accord with WHO Growth Standards, and evaluate their discriminatory performance for subsequent mortality. Design The HES/NHANES US population datasets (age 5-25 years), which were used to construct the 2007 WHO Growth Reference for BMI in this age group, were merged with an imputed dataset matching the distribution of the WHO 2006 Growth Standards age 2-6 years. To construct standardised growth curves, we used Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape with Box-Cox Cole Green transformation and penalized B-spline smoothing. Validation for subsequent mortality in two cohorts was done using Cox proportional hazards models for pre-defined MUACz and BMIz thresholds, with age, gender and HIV status as covariates; and estimation of the area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC). Participants Validation data were from 685 HIV-infected children age 5¬–17 years participating in the ARROW trial in Uganda and Zimbabwe; and 1,741 children age 5–13 years discharged from a rural Kenyan hospital (3.8% HIV-infected). Both cohorts were followed up for survival during one year. Main outcome measures Concordance with WHO 2006 Growth Standards at age 60 months and survival during one year according to MUACz and BMIz. Results The new growth curves transitioned smoothly with WHO Growth Standards at age 5 years. MUACz of -2 to -3 and <-3, compared with ≥-2, was associated with hazard ratios for death within one year of 3.63 (95%CI 0.90 to 14.7; P=0.07) and 11.1 (95%CI 3.40 to 36.0; P<0.0001) respectively among ARROW trial participants; and 2.22 (95%CI 1.01 to 4.9; P=0.04) and 5.15 (95%CI 2.49 to 10.7; P<0.0001) respectively among Kenyan children after discharge from hospital. The AUCs for MUACz and BMIz for discriminating subsequent mortality were 0.81 (95%CI 0.70 to 0.92) and 0.75 (95%CI 0.63 to 0.86) in the ARROW trial (absolute difference 0.06 (95% CI -0.032 to 0.16; P=0.2); and 0.73 (95%CI 0.65 to 0.80) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.67) respectively in Kenya (absolute difference in AUC 0.15 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.23; P=0.0002). Conclusions MUACz is at least as effective as BMIz for assessing mortality risks associated with undernutrition among African school-aged children and adolescents. MUAC can provide simplified screening and diagnosis within nutrition and HIV programmes, and in research

Trends in bednet ownership and usage, and the effect of bednets on malaria hospitalization in the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS): 2008-2015.

BACKGROUND: Use of bednets reduces malaria morbidity and mortality. In Kilifi, Kenya, there was a mass distribution of free nets to children  2500 parasitemia per μl) among children < 5 years were captured using a system of continuous vital registration that links admissions at Kilifi County Hospital to the KHDSS population register. Survival analysis was used to assess relative risk of hospitalization with malaria among children that reported using a bednet compared to those who did not. RESULTS: We observed 63% and 62% mean bednet ownership and usage, respectively, over the eight-survey period. Among children < 5 years, reported bednet ownership in October-December 2008 was 69% and in March-August 2009 was 73% (p < 0.001). An increase was also observed following the mass distribution campaigns in 2012 (62% in May-July 2012 vs 90% in May-October 2013, p < 0.001) and 2015 (68% in June-September 2015 vs 93% in October-November 2015, p < 0.001). Among children <5 years who reported using a net the night prior to the survey, the incidence of malaria hospitalization per 1000 child-years was 2.91 compared to 4.37 among those who did not (HR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.85 [p = 0.001]). CONCLUSION: On longitudinal surveillance, increasing bednet ownership and usage corresponded to mass distribution campaigns; however, this method of delivering bednets did not result in sustained improvements in coverage. Among children < 5 years old bednet use was associated with a 33% decreased incidence of malaria hospitalization

Mortality from external causes in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System Sites.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from external causes, of all kinds, is an important component of overall mortality on a global basis. However, these deaths, like others in Africa and Asia, are often not counted or documented on an individual basis. Overviews of the state of external cause mortality in Africa and Asia are therefore based on uncertain information. The INDEPTH Network maintains longitudinal surveillance, including cause of death, at population sites across Africa and Asia, which offers important opportunities to document external cause mortality at the population level across a range of settings. OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of mortality from external causes at INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories. DESIGN: All deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. RESULTS: A total of 5,884 deaths due to external causes were documented over 11,828,253 person-years. Approximately one-quarter of those deaths were to children younger than 15 years. Causes of death were dominated by childhood drowning in Bangladesh, and by transport-related deaths and intentional injuries elsewhere. Detailed mortality rates are presented by cause of death, age group, and sex. CONCLUSIONS: The patterns of external cause mortality found here generally corresponded with expectations and other sources of information, but they fill some important gaps in population-based mortality data. They provide an important source of information to inform potentially preventive intervention designs

Malaria mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites.

BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a major cause of infectious disease mortality in tropical regions. However, deaths from malaria are most often not individually documented, and as a result overall understanding of malaria epidemiology is inadequate. INDEPTH Network members maintain population surveillance in Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites across Africa and Asia, in which individual deaths are followed up with verbal autopsies. OBJECTIVE: To present patterns of malaria mortality determined by verbal autopsy from INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia, comparing these findings with other relevant information on malaria in the same regions. DESIGN: From a database covering 111,910 deaths over 12,204,043 person-years in 22 sites, in which verbal autopsy data were handled according to the WHO 2012 standard and processed using the InterVA-4 model, over 6,000 deaths were attributed to malaria. The overall period covered was 1992-2012, but two-thirds of the observations related to 2006-2012. These deaths were analysed by site, time period, age group and sex to investigate epidemiological differences in malaria mortality. RESULTS: Rates of malaria mortality varied by 1:10,000 across the sites, with generally low rates in Asia (one site recording no malaria deaths over 0.5 million person-years) and some of the highest rates in West Africa (Nouna, Burkina Faso: 2.47 per 1,000 person-years). Childhood malaria mortality rates were strongly correlated with Malaria Atlas Project estimates of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rates for the same locations. Adult malaria mortality rates, while lower than corresponding childhood rates, were strongly correlated with childhood rates at the site level. CONCLUSIONS: The wide variations observed in malaria mortality, which were nevertheless consistent with various other estimates, suggest that population-based registration of deaths using verbal autopsy is a useful approach to understanding the details of malaria epidemiology

Incidence and risk factors for neonatal tetanus in admissions to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal Tetanus (NT) is a preventable cause of mortality and neurological sequelae that occurs at higher incidence in resource-poor countries, presumably because of low maternal immunisation rates and unhygienic cord care practices. We aimed to determine changes in the incidence of NT, characterize and investigate the associated risk factors and mortality in a prospective cohort study including all admissions over a 15-year period at a County hospital on the Kenyan coast, a region with relatively high historical NT rates within Kenya. METHODS: We assessed all neonatal admissions to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya (1999-2013) and identified cases of NT (standard clinical case definition) admitted during this time. Poisson regression was used to examine change in incidence of NT using accurate denominator data from an area of active demographic surveillance. Logistic regression was used to investigate the risk factors for NT and factors associated with mortality in NT amongst neonatal admissions. A subset of sera from mothers (n = 61) and neonates (n = 47) were tested for anti-tetanus antibodies. RESULTS: There were 191 NT admissions, of whom 187 (98%) were home deliveries. Incidence of NT declined significantly (Incidence Rate Ratio: 0.85 (95% Confidence interval 0.81-0.89), P<0.001) but the case fatality (62%) did not change over the study period (P = 0.536). Younger infant age at admission (P = 0.001) was the only independent predictor of mortality. Compared to neonatal hospital admittee controls, the proportion of home births was higher among the cases. Sera tested for antitetanus antibodies showed most mothers (50/61, 82%) had undetectable levels of antitetanus antibodies, and most (8/9, 89%) mothers with detectable antibodies had a neonate without protective levels. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of NT in Kilifi County has significantly reduced, with reductions following immunisation campaigns. Our results suggest immunisation efforts are effective if sustained and efforts should continue to expand coverage

Adult non-communicable disease mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organization's Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15-64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. DESIGN: All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. RESULTS: A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15-64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work

Effect of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia and clinically-defined pneumonia in Kenyan children: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) are highly protective against invasive pneumococcal disease caused by vaccine serotypes, but the burden of pneumococcal disease in low-income and middle-income countries is dominated by pneumonia, most of which is non-bacteraemic. We examined the effect of 10-valent PCV on the incidence of pneumonia in Kenya. METHODS: We linked prospective hospital surveillance for clinically-defined WHO severe or very severe pneumonia at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, from 2002 to 2015, to population surveillance at Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, comprising 45 000 children younger than 5 years. Chest radiographs were read according to a WHO standard. A 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in Kenya in January, 2011. In Kilifi, there was a three-dose catch-up campaign for infants (aged <1 year) and a two-dose catch-up campaign for children aged 1-4 years, between January and March, 2011. We estimated the effect of PCV10 on the incidence of clinically-defined and radiologically-confirmed pneumonia through interrupted time-series analysis, accounting for seasonal and temporal trends. FINDINGS: Between May 1, 2002 and March 31, 2015, 44 771 children aged 2-143 months were admitted to Kilifi County Hospital. We excluded 810 admissions between January and March, 2011, and 182 admissions during nurses' strikes. In 2002-03, the incidence of admission with clinically-defined pneumonia was 2170 per 100 000 in children aged 2-59 months. By the end of the catch-up campaign in 2011, 4997 (61·1%) of 8181 children aged 2-11 months had received at least two doses of PCV10 and 23 298 (62·3%) of 37 416 children aged 12-59 months had received at least one dose. Across the 13 years of surveillance, the incidence of clinically-defined pneumonia declined by 0·5% per month, independent of vaccine introduction. There was no secular trend in the incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia over 8 years of study. After adjustment for secular trend and season, incidence rate ratios for admission with radiologically-confirmed pneumonia, clinically-defined pneumonia, and diarrhoea (control condition), associated temporally with PCV10 introduction and the catch-up campaign, were 0·52 (95% CI 0·32-0·86), 0·73 (0·54-0·97), and 0·63 (0·31-1·26), respectively. Immediately before PCV10 was introduced, the annual incidence of clinically-defined pneumonia was 1220 per 100 000; this value was reduced by 329 per 100 000 at the point of PCV10 introduction. INTERPRETATION: Over 13 years, admissions to Kilifi County Hospital for clinically-defined pneumonia decreased sharply (by 27%) in association with the introduction of PCV10, as did the incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia (by 48%). The burden of hospital admissions for childhood pneumonia in Kilifi, Kenya, has been reduced substantially by the introduction of PCV10. FUNDING: Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance and Wellcome Trust

Role of Condom Negotiation on Condom use among Women of Reproductive Age in three Districts in Tanzania.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS remains being a disease of great public health concern worldwide. In regions such as sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where women are disproportionately infected with HIV, women are reportedly less likely capable of negotiating condom use. However, while knowledge of condom use for HIV prevention is extensive among men and women in many countries including Tanzania, evidence is limited about the role of condom negotiation on condom use among women in rural Tanzania. METHODS: Data originate from a cross-sectional survey of random households conducted in 2011 in Rufiji, Kilombero and Ulanga districts in Tanzania. The survey assessed health-seeking behaviour among women and children using a structured interviewer-administered questionnaire. A total of 2,614 women who were sexually experienced and aged 15--49 years were extracted from the main database for the current analysis. Linkage between condom negotiation and condom use at the last sexual intercourse was assessed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Prevalence of condom use at the last sexual intercourse was 22.2% overall, ranging from12.2% among married women to 54.9% among unmarried (single) women. Majority of the women (73.4%) reported being confident to negotiate condom use, and these women were significantly more likely than those who were not confident to have used a condom at the last sexual intercourse (OR = 3.13, 95% CI 2.22-4.41). This effect was controlled for marital status, age, education, religion, number of sexual partners, household wealth and knowledge of HIV prevention by condom use. CONCLUSION: Confidence to negotiate condom use is a significant predictor of actual condom use among women in rural Tanzania. Women especially unmarried ones or those in multiple partnerships should be empowered with condom negotiation skills to enhance their sexual and reproductive health outcomes

Revising the WHO verbal autopsy instrument to facilitate routine cause-of-death monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a systematic approach for determining causes of death (CoD) in populations without routine medical certification. It has mainly been used in research contexts and involved relatively lengthy interviews. Our objective here is to describe the process used to shorten, simplify, and standardise the VA process to make it feasible for application on a larger scale such as in routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. METHODS: A literature review of existing VA instruments was undertaken. The World Health Organization (WHO) then facilitated an international consultation process to review experiences with existing VA instruments, including those from WHO, the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health in Developing Countries (INDEPTH) Network, InterVA, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). In an expert meeting, consideration was given to formulating a workable VA CoD list [with mapping to the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) CoD] and to the viability and utility of existing VA interview questions, with a view to undertaking systematic simplification. FINDINGS: A revised VA CoD list was compiled enabling mapping of all ICD-10 CoD onto 62 VA cause categories, chosen on the grounds of public health significance as well as potential for ascertainment from VA. A set of 221 indicators for inclusion in the revised VA instrument was developed on the basis of accumulated experience, with appropriate skip patterns for various population sub-groups. The duration of a VA interview was reduced by about 40% with this new approach. CONCLUSIONS: The revised VA instrument resulting from this consultation process is presented here as a means of making it available for widespread use and evaluation. It is envisaged that this will be used in conjunction with automated models for assigning CoD from VA data, rather than involving physicians