The burden and challenges of Neonatal Tetanus in Kilifi District, Kenya - 2004-7

Objectives: To describe the incidence of neonatal tetanus (NNT) and to describe the trends between 2004 and 2007; to show the geographical distribution of NNT in Kilifi district and to describe routine immunisation coverage, catch-up campaigns and mop-ups.Design: Retrospective studySetting: Kilifi district, Coastal KenyaSubjects: Children diagnosed with Neonatal Tetanus (NNT) attending Health facilities in the District.Results: The incidence of NNT in Kilifi increased from 0.6 in 2004 to 1.0 per 1000 live births in 2007. Over 50% of Kilifi district was a high risk area for NNT. It was a public health problem (>1 per 1000 live births) in 19/36 locations. Immunisation (TT2+) increased from 4% in 2004 to 17% in 2007 for women of childbearing age and from 22% to 98% for pregnant women in the same period. All cases of NNT were delivered at home. 83% of NNT cases had potentially infectious materials applied to their cords.Conclusions: Neonatal tetanus was an increasing problem in Kilifi district in the period 2004-2007. Immunisation coverage was low for women of childbearing age. TT immunisation data capture was a mix-up (pregnant women and women of childbearing age) at various health facilities and was a challenge to accurate estimates of TT2+ immunisation coverage

Education as a factor influencing fertility in Kenya, 1977/78

Kenya became independent in 1963, and since then the Government has invested heavily in education. As a result many men and women have benefited. Consequently, some of the traditional practices which inhibited fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding and abstinence are being abandoned while the use of modern methods of fertility control is not widespread. Thus the fertility rate at the time of writing (1984), is one of the highest in the world. This study has used the 1977/78 Kenya Fertility Survey data to examine the influence of western education on the fertility of ever-married women. The study has examined age at first marriage, cumulative fertility, first birth interval, fecundability and postpartum behaviour in the last closed birth interval. The findings have shown that education of women is positively related to the age at first marriage and to fecundability. Controlling for the age and duration of marriage, the study has shown that the education of women is positively related to the cumulative fertility in the first nine years of marriage. The decrement technique has been used to analyse the timing of the first birth after marriage, and the findings show that educated women have their first baby after marriage much sooner than the uneducated women. Generally the majority of the women in the survey prefer large families, and practise little contraception. Nevertheless, this study has shown that educated women are more likely to prefer smaller families and to practise contraception, especially those with 9 or more years of schooling. On the other hand, educated women have shorter periods of breastfeeding, abstinence and postpartum amenorrhoea

A Growth Reference for Mid Upper Arm Circumference for Age among School Age Children and Adolescents, with Validation for Mortality in Two Cohorts

OBJECTIVES: To construct growth curves for mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC)-for-age z score for 5-19 year olds that accord with the World Health Organization growth standards, and to evaluate their discriminatory performance for subsequent mortality. DESIGN: Growth curve construction and longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: United States and international growth data, and cohorts in Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. PARTICIPANTS The Health Examination Survey (HES)/National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) US population datasets (age 5-25 years), which were used to construct the 2007 WHO growth reference for body mass index in this age group, were merged with an imputed dataset matching the distribution of the WHO 2006 growth standards age 2-6 years. Validation data were from 685 HIV infected children aged 5-17 years participating in the Antiretroviral Research for Watoto (ARROW) trial in Uganda and Zimbabwe; and 1741 children aged 5-13 years discharged from a rural Kenyan hospital (3.8% HIV infected). Both cohorts were followed-up for survival during one year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Concordance with WHO 2006 growth standards at age 60 months and survival during one year according to MUAC-for-age and body mass index-for-age z scores. RESULTS: The new growth curves transitioned smoothly with WHO growth standards at age 5 years. MUAC-for-age z scores of −2 to −3 and less than−3, compared with −2 or more, was associated with hazard ratios for death within one year of 3.63 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 14.7; P=0.07) and 11.1 (3.40 to 36.0; P<0.001), respectively, among ARROW trial participants; and 2.22 (1.01 to 4.9; P=0.04) and 5.15 (2.49 to 10.7; P<0.001), respectively, among Kenyan children after discharge from hospital. The AUCs for MUAC-for-age and body mass index-for-age z scores for discriminating subsequent mortality were 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.92) and 0.75 (0.63 to 0.86) in the ARROW trial (absolute difference 0.06, 95% confidence interval −0.032 to 0.16; P=0.2) and 0.73 (0.65 to 0.80) and 0.58 (0.49 to 0.67), respectively, in Kenya (absolute difference in AUC 0.15, 0.07 to 0.23; P=0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: The MUAC-for-age z score is at least as effective as the body mass index-for-age z score for assessing mortality risks associated with undernutrition among African school aged children and adolescents. MUAC can provide simplified screening and diagnosis within nutrition and HIV programmes, and in research

A growth reference for mid upper arm circumference for age among school age children and adolescents, and validation for mortality: growth curve construction and longitudinal cohort study

Objectives Worldwide, school age children and adolescents are vulnerable to conflict and food insecurity and HIV-infected children are increasingly surviving into adolescence. WHO recommends assessing acute malnutrition in this age group using body mass index-for-age Z scores (BMIz). For under-fives, mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) is the mainstay of community diagnosis of acute malnutrition, is simple to perform and predicts survival better than weight-for-height Z scores. MUAC is little-used in older children and adolescents because there is no accepted international reference. This study aimed to construct growth curves for MUAC-for-age Z score (MUACz) for 5-19 year olds that accord with WHO Growth Standards, and evaluate their discriminatory performance for subsequent mortality. Design The HES/NHANES US population datasets (age 5-25 years), which were used to construct the 2007 WHO Growth Reference for BMI in this age group, were merged with an imputed dataset matching the distribution of the WHO 2006 Growth Standards age 2-6 years. To construct standardised growth curves, we used Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape with Box-Cox Cole Green transformation and penalized B-spline smoothing. Validation for subsequent mortality in two cohorts was done using Cox proportional hazards models for pre-defined MUACz and BMIz thresholds, with age, gender and HIV status as covariates; and estimation of the area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC). Participants Validation data were from 685 HIV-infected children age 5¬–17 years participating in the ARROW trial in Uganda and Zimbabwe; and 1,741 children age 5–13 years discharged from a rural Kenyan hospital (3.8% HIV-infected). Both cohorts were followed up for survival during one year. Main outcome measures Concordance with WHO 2006 Growth Standards at age 60 months and survival during one year according to MUACz and BMIz. Results The new growth curves transitioned smoothly with WHO Growth Standards at age 5 years. MUACz of -2 to -3 and <-3, compared with ≥-2, was associated with hazard ratios for death within one year of 3.63 (95%CI 0.90 to 14.7; P=0.07) and 11.1 (95%CI 3.40 to 36.0; P<0.0001) respectively among ARROW trial participants; and 2.22 (95%CI 1.01 to 4.9; P=0.04) and 5.15 (95%CI 2.49 to 10.7; P<0.0001) respectively among Kenyan children after discharge from hospital. The AUCs for MUACz and BMIz for discriminating subsequent mortality were 0.81 (95%CI 0.70 to 0.92) and 0.75 (95%CI 0.63 to 0.86) in the ARROW trial (absolute difference 0.06 (95% CI -0.032 to 0.16; P=0.2); and 0.73 (95%CI 0.65 to 0.80) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.67) respectively in Kenya (absolute difference in AUC 0.15 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.23; P=0.0002). Conclusions MUACz is at least as effective as BMIz for assessing mortality risks associated with undernutrition among African school-aged children and adolescents. MUAC can provide simplified screening and diagnosis within nutrition and HIV programmes, and in research

Profile: The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS).

The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), located on the Indian Ocean coast of Kenya, was established in 2000 as a record of births, pregnancies, migration events and deaths and is maintained by 4-monthly household visits. The study area was selected to capture the majority of patients admitted to Kilifi District Hospital. The KHDSS has 260 000 residents and the hospital admits 4400 paediatric patients and 3400 adult patients per year. At the hospital, morbidity events are linked in real time by a computer search of the population register. Linked surveillance was extended to KHDSS vaccine clinics in 2008. KHDSS data have been used to define the incidence of hospital presentation with childhood infectious diseases (e.g. rotavirus diarrhoea, pneumococcal disease), to test the association between genetic risk factors (e.g. thalassaemia and sickle cell disease) and infectious diseases, to define the community prevalence of chronic diseases (e.g. epilepsy), to evaluate access to health care and to calculate the operational effectiveness of major public health interventions (e.g. conjugate Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine). Rapport with residents is maintained through an active programme of community engagement. A system of collaborative engagement exists for sharing data on survival, morbidity, socio-economic status and vaccine coverage

Defining Clinical Malaria: The Specificity and Incidence of Endpoints from Active and Passive Surveillance of Children in Rural Kenya

Febrile malaria is the most common clinical manifestation of P. falciparum infection, and is often the primary endpoint in clinical trials and epidemiological studies. Subjective and objective fevers are both used to define the endpoint, but have not been carefully compared, and the relative incidence of clinical malaria by active and passive case detection is unknown. We analyzed data from cohorts under active and passive surveillance, including 19,462 presentations with fever and 5,551 blood tests for asymptomatic parasitaemia. A logistic regression model was used to calculate Malaria Attributable Fractions (MAFs) for various case definitions. Incidences of febrile malaria by active and passive surveillance were compared in a subset of children matched for age and location. Active surveillance identified three times the incidence of clinical malaria as passive surveillance in a subset of children matched for age and location. Objective fever (temperature≥37.5°C) gave consistently higher MAFs than case definitions based on subjective fever. The endpoints from active and passive surveillance have high specificity, but the incidence of endpoints is lower on passive surveillance. Subjective fever had low specificity and should not be used in primary endpoint. Passive surveillance will reduce the power of clinical trials but may cost-effectively deliver acceptable sensitivity in studies of large populations

Malaria mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites.

BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a major cause of infectious disease mortality in tropical regions. However, deaths from malaria are most often not individually documented, and as a result overall understanding of malaria epidemiology is inadequate. INDEPTH Network members maintain population surveillance in Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites across Africa and Asia, in which individual deaths are followed up with verbal autopsies. OBJECTIVE: To present patterns of malaria mortality determined by verbal autopsy from INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia, comparing these findings with other relevant information on malaria in the same regions. DESIGN: From a database covering 111,910 deaths over 12,204,043 person-years in 22 sites, in which verbal autopsy data were handled according to the WHO 2012 standard and processed using the InterVA-4 model, over 6,000 deaths were attributed to malaria. The overall period covered was 1992-2012, but two-thirds of the observations related to 2006-2012. These deaths were analysed by site, time period, age group and sex to investigate epidemiological differences in malaria mortality. RESULTS: Rates of malaria mortality varied by 1:10,000 across the sites, with generally low rates in Asia (one site recording no malaria deaths over 0.5 million person-years) and some of the highest rates in West Africa (Nouna, Burkina Faso: 2.47 per 1,000 person-years). Childhood malaria mortality rates were strongly correlated with Malaria Atlas Project estimates of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rates for the same locations. Adult malaria mortality rates, while lower than corresponding childhood rates, were strongly correlated with childhood rates at the site level. CONCLUSIONS: The wide variations observed in malaria mortality, which were nevertheless consistent with various other estimates, suggest that population-based registration of deaths using verbal autopsy is a useful approach to understanding the details of malaria epidemiology

Mortality from external causes in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System Sites.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from external causes, of all kinds, is an important component of overall mortality on a global basis. However, these deaths, like others in Africa and Asia, are often not counted or documented on an individual basis. Overviews of the state of external cause mortality in Africa and Asia are therefore based on uncertain information. The INDEPTH Network maintains longitudinal surveillance, including cause of death, at population sites across Africa and Asia, which offers important opportunities to document external cause mortality at the population level across a range of settings. OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of mortality from external causes at INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories. DESIGN: All deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. RESULTS: A total of 5,884 deaths due to external causes were documented over 11,828,253 person-years. Approximately one-quarter of those deaths were to children younger than 15 years. Causes of death were dominated by childhood drowning in Bangladesh, and by transport-related deaths and intentional injuries elsewhere. Detailed mortality rates are presented by cause of death, age group, and sex. CONCLUSIONS: The patterns of external cause mortality found here generally corresponded with expectations and other sources of information, but they fill some important gaps in population-based mortality data. They provide an important source of information to inform potentially preventive intervention designs

Revising the WHO verbal autopsy instrument to facilitate routine cause-of-death monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a systematic approach for determining causes of death (CoD) in populations without routine medical certification. It has mainly been used in research contexts and involved relatively lengthy interviews. Our objective here is to describe the process used to shorten, simplify, and standardise the VA process to make it feasible for application on a larger scale such as in routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. METHODS: A literature review of existing VA instruments was undertaken. The World Health Organization (WHO) then facilitated an international consultation process to review experiences with existing VA instruments, including those from WHO, the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health in Developing Countries (INDEPTH) Network, InterVA, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). In an expert meeting, consideration was given to formulating a workable VA CoD list [with mapping to the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) CoD] and to the viability and utility of existing VA interview questions, with a view to undertaking systematic simplification. FINDINGS: A revised VA CoD list was compiled enabling mapping of all ICD-10 CoD onto 62 VA cause categories, chosen on the grounds of public health significance as well as potential for ascertainment from VA. A set of 221 indicators for inclusion in the revised VA instrument was developed on the basis of accumulated experience, with appropriate skip patterns for various population sub-groups. The duration of a VA interview was reduced by about 40% with this new approach. CONCLUSIONS: The revised VA instrument resulting from this consultation process is presented here as a means of making it available for widespread use and evaluation. It is envisaged that this will be used in conjunction with automated models for assigning CoD from VA data, rather than involving physicians

Adult non-communicable disease mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organization's Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15-64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. DESIGN: All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. RESULTS: A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15-64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work