Television and Fertility

Much research has been conducted in the field of utilising the media - television and radio in particular - to promote particular public health messages. However, a burgeoning canon has examined how mass media can play a role in affecting change in fertility preferences and outcomes. In this paper we review these researches which have primarily focussed upon higher fertility settings. The impact of mass media presentation of families and children in low fertility settings has not yet been subject to rigorous sociological investigation so its impact can not be accurately inferred. However, given the pervasive nature of mass media and celebrity culture, we suggest that this is an important avenue for future research. We conclude that television plays a multi-faceted role in shaping individuals decision-making procedures concerning both demographic events and public health interactions. To illustrate this, we present a model which demonstrates a sliding scale of intent - but not impact - of various genres in order to understand the actual role of the media in shaping attitudes towards family size - either explicitly in terms of edutainment or implicitly as a forms of normalization

Modelling the constraints on consanguineous marriage when fertility declines

BACKGROUND Consanguinity - or marriage between close blood relatives, in particular first cousins - is widely practised and even socially encouraged in many countries. However, in the face of fertility transition where the number of cousins eligible to marry declines, how might such constraints on consanguinity develop in the future? OBJECTIVE Numerous studies have stated that the practice cannot continue at present levels and in its present form in the face of fertility transition. However, the future impact of fertility transition on availability of cousins to marry has not yet been quantified. METHODS We perform a simulation exercise using past and projected net reproduction rates (NRRs) derived from the UN. We calculate the average number of cousins of the opposite sex as a function of the average number of children, the average probability of an individual having at least one eligible paternal cousin of the opposite sex, and conclude with an examination of constraints on consanguineous marriage in selected countries under different fertility assumptions. RESULTS Current and projected fertility levels in Middle Eastern countries will create challenging constraints on the custom once today's birth cohorts reach marriageable age. CONCLUSIONS Either consanguinity prevalence will diminish significantly, or the institution will be forced to adapt by becoming more coercive in the face of reduced choice or at the expense of other social preferences (such as for an older groom wedding a younger bride). Fertility decline affects prospects for social change not only through its well-known consequences for mothers but also through shaping marriage conditions for the next generation

Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'

Relatively little research has been conducted on how economic recessions impact fertility intentions. In particular, uncertainty in reproductive intentions has not been examined in relation to economic shocks. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of individuals' perception of negative changes in both their own and their country's economic performance on reproductive intentions in Europe during the time of the 'Great Recession' (2006-2011). Crucially, we examine both intentions and stated certainty of meeting these intentions. Using the 2011 Eurobarometer survey for 27 European countries, fertility intentions and reproductive uncertainty are regressed on individuals' perceptions of past trends in country's economic situation, household's financial situation, and personal job situation. Multilevel ordinal regressions models are run separately for people at parities zero and one as well as controlling for a set of socio-demographic variables. A worsening in the households' financial situation, as perceived in the years of the economic crisis, does not affect people's fertility intentions but rather the certainty of meeting these intentions. This relationship holds true at the individual-level for childless people. The more negative the individual's assessment of the household's financial situation, the higher the reproductive uncertainty. While this works exclusively at the country-level for people at parity one, the higher the share of people's pessimism on households' financial situation in the country the more insecure individuals of such a country are about having additional children. The empirical evidence suggests that individuals' uncertainty about realising their fertility intentions has risen in Europe and is positively linked to people's perceived household financial difficulties. If European economies continue to fare poorly, fertility intentions could eventually start to decline in response to such difficulties. (authors' abstract

Fertility and Family Policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990

This paper examines fertility and family policies in 15 Central and East European (CEE) countries to establish firstly, likely directions of cohort fertility trends for the coming decade; and secondly, to provide an overview and analysis of family policies in CEE countries, and to assess their impact on cohort fertility trends. Demographic analysis suggests that the cohort fertility decline of the 1960s cohorts is likely to continue at least among the 1970s birth cohorts; stagnation cannot be ruled out. Births that were postponed by women born in the 1970s were not being replaced in sufficient numbers for cohort fertility to increase in the foreseeable future, and shares of low parity women (childless and one child) were larger than shares of high parity women among the late 1960s cohorts than in older cohorts. Also, childbearing postponement which started in the 1990s is reflected in dramatic changes of childbearing age patterns. As period fertility rates have been increasing in the late 2000s throughout the region an impression of a fertility recovery has been created, however the findings of this project indicate that no such widespread childbearing recovery is underway.For the first time ever an overview and analysis of CEE family policies is conceptualized in this paper. It demonstrates that fertility trends and family policies are a matter of serious concern throughout the region. The following family policy types have been identified: comprehensive family policy model; pro-natalist policies model; temporary male bread-winner model; and conventional family policies model. The majority of family policies in CEE countries suffer from a variety of shortcomings that impede them from generating enhanced family welfare and from providing conditions for cohort fertility to increase. The likely further decline of cohort fertility, or its stagnation, may entail long-term demographic as well as other societal consequences, such as continuous declines in total population numbers, changes in age structures, as well as implications for health and social security costs.This paper examines fertility and family policies in 15 Central and East European (CEE) countries to establish firstly, likely directions of cohort fertility trends for the coming decade; and secondly, to provide an overview and analysis of family policies in CEE countries, and to assess their impact on cohort fertility trends. Demographic analysis suggests that the cohort fertility decline of the 1960s cohorts is likely to continue at least among the 1970s birth cohorts; stagnation cannot be ruled out. Births that were postponed by women born in the 1970s were not being replaced in sufficient numbers for cohort fertility to increase in the foreseeable future, and shares of low parity women (childless and one child) were larger than shares of high parity women among the late 1960s cohorts than in older cohorts. Also, childbearing postponement which started in the 1990s is reflected in dramatic changes of childbearing age patterns. As period fertility rates have been increasing in the late 2000s throughout the region an impression of a fertility recovery has been created, however the findings of this project indicate that no such widespread childbearing recovery is underway.For the first time ever an overview and analysis of CEE family policies is conceptualized in this paper. It demonstrates that fertility trends and family policies are a matter of serious concern throughout the region. The following family policy types have been identified: comprehensive family policy model; pro-natalist policies model; temporary male bread-winner model; and conventional family policies model. The majority of family policies in CEE countries suffer from a variety of shortcomings that impede them from generating enhanced family welfare and from providing conditions for cohort fertility to increase. The likely further decline of cohort fertility, or its stagnation, may entail long-term demographic as well as other societal consequences, such as continuous declines in total population numbers, changes in age structures, as well as implications for health and social security costs

: o caso da China

It is well known that populations around the world - and in Pacific Asia in particular - are ageing, and ageing rapidly. China is no exception to this. While it has been widely agreed that gender is an important lens through which to define and develop appropriate policies for both adaptation and mitigation of the challenges of ageing, gender is rarely explicitly taken into consideration as a vector of consideration. In this paper, we demonstrate for the case of China how when viewing this intersection through a regional lens, the extent to which old age is ‘feminised’ differs sharply across the country. Taken together, this shows the importance of considering gender both in old-age, as well as inequalities across the life course, in the formulation and development of policies relating to ageing at both the national and the regional level. This is especially important in a country such as China, where provinces and other local governments yield important policymaking powers in certain key areas relevant to ageing.É bem conhecido que as populações em todo o mundo - e na Ásia do Pacífico em particular - estão envelhecendo e envelhecendo rapidamente. A China não é exceção para isso. Embora tenha sido amplamente aceito que o gênero é uma lente importante para definir e desenvolver políticas apropriadas tanto para a adaptação quanto para a mitigação dos desafios do envelhecimento, o gênero raramente é explicitamente considerado como um vetor de consideração. Neste artigo, demonstramos, para o caso da China, como, ao visualizar essa interseção por meio de uma lente regional, a extensão em que a velhice é "feminizada" difere acentuadamente em todo o país. Em conjunto, isso mostra a importância de se considerar o gênero tanto na velhice quanto nas desigualdades ao longo da vida, na formulação e no desenvolvimento de políticas relativas ao envelhecimento, tanto no nível nacional quanto no regional. Isso é especialmente importante em um país como a China, onde as províncias e outros governos locais geram importantes poderes de formulação de políticas em certas áreas-chave relevantes para o envelhecimento

Baby longing and men’s reproductive motivation

Childbearing in low-fertility societies some times results from a strong desire to have a(nother) child. Since women tend to dominate discussions on ‘baby longing’ or ‘baby fever’, it is not clear whether men also feel the powerful urge to have a child. Moreover, the demographic importance of baby longing has yet to be assessed. Using cross-sectional surveys from contemporary Finland and focusing on men, we analyse gender differences in baby longing. Both sexes report having felt an intense longing to have a child of their own at least once or a few times in their lives. A higher proportion of men say they have never longed for a child, while a higher proportion of women report having felt this longing frequently. Baby longing figures at different stages of the Traits-Desires-Intentions-Behaviour scheme of reproductive behaviour. For a small minority of men, longing first appears in youth. Baby longing among men most commonly plays into childbearing desires preceding attempts to achieve pregnancy. However, about every third man reports having first felt this longing only when trying to have a child. Baby longing among men is unrelated to economic and educational status, but it is associated with marital status, fertility intentions and the number of lifetime unions. Compared to its effects on women, baby longing among men is reported to result in having a child less often and to have less influence on childbearing decisi ons. We conclude that women’s longing shapes the couple’s fertility behaviour to a slightly higher degree than men’s longing does, especially with regards to higher parities. Men’s baby longing may be especially important for sustaining proceptive behaviour and preparing for fatherhoo

Indifferent Gender Preferences among Childless Beijing Citizens

Son preference, leading to skewed sex ratios at birth, is an important feature of contemporary Chinese demography, as well as being a critical policy issue. Using a 2006 representative survey, this article explores preferences for boys and girls among childless young adults in a district of Beijing who have a stated one child as their ideal number of children (though they may be eligible to bear more). The descriptive analysis finds no evidence of son-preference; rather an overall indifference to gender. A multivariate analysis provides some indicative evidence of indifference regarding predictors of desiring a girl, a boy or either. gs

Spatial Variation of Sub-national Fertility Trends in Austria, Germany and Switzerland

Räumliche Unterschiede in der subnationalen Fertilitätsentwicklung sind für Politiker und Raumplaner von hoher Relevanz. Ziel dieses Artikels ist es, politischen Entscheidungsträgern ein theoretisches und empirisches Bezugssystem zu vermitteln. Dabei berücksichtigen wir sowohl historische und aktuelle Fertilitätstrends als auch theoretische Erklärungsansätze für die beobachteten Entwicklungen. Ein derartiges Bezugssystem ist unserer Ansicht nach wesentlich, um Aussagen über zukünftige Trends und politische Einflussmöglichkeiten geben zu können.Der theoretische Teil des Artikels beschäftigt sich mit Faktoren, die einen Einfluss auf räumliche Fertilitätsunterschiede haben können. Dies umfasst sowohl Entscheidungen und Entwicklungen in Lebensverläufen auf individueller Ebene als auch kontextuell wirkende sozioökonomische Makrophänomene, die auf unterschiedlichen geografischen Maßstabsebenen operieren können (lokal, regional, national, global). Der anschließende empirische Teil nimmt Bezug auf Eurostat-Veröffentlichungen zu räumlichen Fertilitätsunterschieden in Europa. Die Aussagekraft dieser Eurostat-Analysen ist begrenzt, da es ihnen an geografischem Detail mangelt und nur eine kurze Zeitspanne betrachtet wird. Diese Beschränkungen versuchen wir zu überwinden, indem wir für Österreich, Deutschland und die Schweiz lange Zeitreihen mit möglichst hohem geografischen Detail untersuchen. Hierfür verwenden wir historische Daten aus dem Princeton European Fertility Project und anderen Quellen, die uns erlauben, komparative räumliche Fertilitätszeitreihen für die letzten 150 Jahre zu konstruieren. Darüber hinaus präsentieren wir eine Fallstudie zu lokalen Fertilitätsentwicklungen in den Städten und Samtgemeinden des deutschen Bundeslandes Niedersachsen und den Stadtteilen der deutschen Stadt Bremen.In unserer Analyse kommen wir zu dem Ergebnis, dass die jüngst beobachtete Angleichung subnationaler Fertilitätsunterschiede – insbesondere auf makro-regionaler Ebene – sehr bemerkenswert ist. Allerdings können wir in der Langzeitbetrachtung über die letzten 150 Jahre einige Phasen identifizieren, in denen räumliche Fertilitätsunterschiede eine divergierende Entwicklung nahmen. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass das derzeitige Bild nicht notwendigerweise das Ende der Geschichte (Fukuyamas „end of history“) für die kommenden Jahrzehnte darstellt. Außerdem zeigt die Analyse der Daten auf kleinräumiger Ebene, dass, im Gegensatz zu den in allen drei Staaten beobachteten makro-regionalen Konvergenztrends, innerhalb der Stadt Bremen auf der Ebene der Stadtteile ein divergierender Trend bei den räumlichen Fertilitätsunterschieden zu erkennen ist. Dies demonstriert, dass lokale Divergenztrends parallel zu makro-regionalen Konvergenztrends ablaufen können.Sub-national trends in fertility are of great importance for policy makers and regional planners. This paper aims to provide a theoretical and empirical framework for policy makers, taking into account past and present trends in fertility, as well as their theoretical underpinnings. These will, we argue, be crucial in determining future trajectories and potential political responses to them.The theoretical part of the paper deals with the factors that may influence fertility differences at the sub-national level, including decisions and life course trajectories at the individual level, as well as contextual socio-economic phenomena operating at different geographical levels (local, regional, national, global). This is followed by an empirical section, which takes the Eurostat publications on spatial fertility differences inEuropeas a starting point. In an attempt to overcome the limitations of these reports – both in terms of the lack of geographic detail and the short time span covered – we provide more thorough overviews for Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Using historical data from the Princeton European Fertility Project and other sources, we have been able to reconstruct comparative regional fertility time series for the past 150 years. Finally, we present a case study on local fertility development in the municipalities and unified rural communities of the German state ofLower Saxonyand the districts of the German city ofBremen.Based on the results of this analysis, we conclude that the recent degree of fertility convergence between regions within countries – particularly at the macro-regional level – is, indeed, striking. However, taking a long-term perspective, we are able to identify some substantial time periods over the last 150 years in which regional fertility levels diverged. This implies that the current picture must not necessarily constitute Fukuyama’s “end of history” over the coming decades. Moreover, the study of local-level data reveals that, in contrast to the overall macro-regional fertility convergence process in all three countries, a trend towards divergence can be observed within the city of Bremen. This demonstrates that local divergence can run parallel to overall regional convergence

‘I couldn't hold the whole thing’: the role of gender, individualisation and risk in shaping fertility preferences in Taiwan

Taiwan has one of the lowest fertility rates in Asia. High direct and indirect costs of childbearing have been identified as key drivers behind this at the macro-level, but little is known about the mechanism of these influences at the individual-level. In 32 qualitative interviews with parents in Taipei, we sought to explore the salient factors for couples in their decisions about having further children. We identified a tension between gendered expectations of childcare responsibilities and women's desire to ‘build a life of one's own’ – a life with options and the freedom to pursue career and social aspirations. Based on our grounded analysis, we reflect on the high relevance of individualisation, risk society and incomplete gender revolution theories for understanding why many couples – and women in particular – choose to cease childbearing at parity one

‘Instead of fetching flowers, the youths brought in flakes of snow’: exploring extreme weather history through English parish registers

Parish registers provide organized, dated and located population data and as such, are routinely among the most frequently consulted documents within the holdings of county record offices and archives. Throughout history, extreme weather has had significant impacts on the church, its congregation, and local landscape. It is for these reasons that extreme weather events have been deemed worthy of official note by authors of many registers. Although isolated entries have been used as supporting evidence for the occurrence of a number of historic extreme weather events, the information that parish registers contain relating to weather history has not been studied in its own right. Parish register narratives add new events to existing chronologies of extreme weather events and contribute to our understanding of their impacts at the local level. As public and well used documents they also function to keep the memory of particular events alive. The examples in this paper cover a wide range of weather types, places, and time periods, also enabling recording practice to be explored. Finally, as the number of digitized registers increases, we highlight the risks of weather narratives being obscured, and reflect on how the weather history contained within might be systematically captured