Country-level pandemic risk and preparedness classification based on COVID-19 data: A machine learning approach

In this work we present a three-stage Machine Learning strategy to country-level risk classification based on countries that are reporting COVID-19 information. A K% binning discretisation (K = 25) is used to create four risk groups of countries based on the risk of transmission (coronavirus cases per million population), risk of mortality (coronavirus deaths per million population), and risk of inability to test (coronavirus tests per million population). The four risk groups produced by K% binning are labelled as ‘low’, ‘medium-low’, ‘medium-high’, and ‘high’. Coronavirus-related data are then removed and the attributes for prediction of the three types of risk are given as the geopolitical and demographic data describing each country. Thus, the calculation of class label is based on coronavirus data but the input attributes are country-level information regardless of coronavirus data. The three four-class classification problems are then explored and benchmarked through leave-one-country-out cross validation to find the strongest model, producing a Stack of Gradient Boosting and Decision Tree algorithms for risk of transmission, a Stack of Support Vector Machine and Extra Trees for risk of mortality, and a Gradient Boosting algorithm for the risk of inability to test. It is noted that high risk for inability to test is often coupled with low risks for transmission and mortality, therefore the risk of inability to test should be interpreted first, before consideration is given to the predicted transmission and mortality risks. Finally, the approach is applied to more recent risk levels to data from September 2020 and weaker results are noted due to the growth of international collaboration detracting useful knowledge from country-level attributes which suggests that similar machine learning approaches are more useful prior to situations later unfolding

Fruit quality and defect image classification with conditional GAN data augmentation

Contemporary Artificial Intelligence technologies allow for the employment of Computer Vision to discern good crops from bad, providing a step in the pipeline of selecting healthy fruit from undesirable fruit, such as those which are mouldy or damaged. State-of-the-art works in the field report high accuracy results on small datasets

Trademarks and the Economic Dimensions of Trademark Law in Europe and Beyond

The economic analysis of trademark law continues to draw a number of commentaries, yet more and more, the courts are not factoring concrete economic analysis of trademark law and trademark protection in their decisions. In this entry I give an overview and status of trademarks from a law and economic perspective and suggest that trademark laws need to respond to the economic dimension that occurs on the market and consumer economic behavior.Peer reviewe

Evaluating Lifeworld as an emancipatory methodology

Disability research is conducted within a highly politicised ‘hotbed’ of competing paradigms and principles. New researchers, who want to work within the social model, are soon faced with complex and challenging methodological and philosophical dilemmas. The social model advocates research agendas that are focused on the emancipation and empowerment of disabled people but, in reality, these are rarely achieved. To be successful researchers need to engage with innovative and creative methodologies and to share their experiences of these within environments that welcome challenge and debate. This paper focuses on Lifeworld and assesses its value as a tool for emancipatory research. Using examples from a study with parents, whose children were in the process of being labelled as having autism, the paper illustrates how the principles that ‘underpin’ the methodology offered a supportive framework for a novice researcher

Separation of Spin and Charge Quantum Numbers in Strongly Correlated Systems

In this paper we reexamine the problem of the separation of spin and charge degrees of freedom in two dimensional strongly correlated systems. We establish a set of sufficient conditions for the occurence of spin and charge separation. Specifically, we discuss this issue in the context of the Heisenberg model for spin-1/2 on a square lattice with nearest ($J_1$) and next-nearest ($J_2$) neighbor antiferromagnetic couplings. Our formulation makes explicit the existence of a local SU(2) gauge symmetry once the spin-1/2 operators are replaced by bound states of spinons. The mean-field theory for the spinons is solved numerically as a function of the ratio $J_2/J_1$ for the so-called s-RVB Ansatz. A second order phase transition exists into a novel flux state for $J_2/J_1>(J_2/J_1)_{{\rm cr}}$. We identify the range $0<J_2/J_1<(J_2/J_1)_{\rm cr}$ as the s-RVB phase. It is characterized by the existence of a finite gap to the elementary excitations (spinons) and the breakdown of all the continuous gauge symmetries. An effective continuum theory for the spinons and the gauge degrees of freedom is constructed just below the onset of the flux phase. We argue that this effective theory is consistent with the deconfinement of the spinons carrying the fundamental charge of the gauge group. We contrast this result with the study of the one dimensional quantum antiferromagnet within the same approach. We show that in the one dimensional model, the spinons of the gauge picture are always confined and thus cannot be identified with the gapless spin-1/2 excitations of the quantum antiferromagnet Heisenberg model.Comment: 56 pages, RevteX 3.

Adverse Events Associated With the Addition of Aspirin to Direct Oral Anticoagulant Therapy Without a Clear Indication

Importance: It is unclear how many patients treated with a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) are using concomitant acetylsalicylic acid (ASA, or aspirin) and how this affects clinical outcomes. Objective: To evaluate the frequency and outcomes of prescription of concomitant ASA and DOAC therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) or venous thromboembolic disease (VTE). Design, Setting, and Participants: This registry-based cohort study took place at 4 anticoagulation clinics in Michigan from January 2015 to December 2019. Eligible participants were adults undergoing treatment with a DOAC for AF or VTE, without a recent myocardial infarction (MI) or history of heart valve replacement, with at least 3 months of follow-up. Exposures: Use of ASA concomitant with DOAC therapy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates of bleeding (any, nonmajor, major), rates of thrombosis (stroke, VTE, MI), emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and death. Results: Of the study cohort of 3280 patients (1673 [51.0%] men; mean [SD] age 68.2 [13.3] years), 1107 (33.8%) patients without a clear indication for ASA were being treated with DOACs and ASA. Two propensity score-matched cohorts, each with 1047 patients, were analyzed (DOAC plus ASA and DOAC only). Patients were followed up for a mean (SD) of 20.9 (19.0) months. Patients taking DOAC and ASA experienced more bleeding events compared with DOAC monotherapy (26.0 bleeds vs 31.6 bleeds per 100 patient years, P = .01). Specifically, patients undergoing combination therapy had significantly higher rates of nonmajor bleeding (26.1 bleeds vs 21.7 bleeds per 100 patient years, P = .02) compared with DOAC monotherapy. Major bleeding rates were similar between the 2 cohorts. Thrombotic event rates were also similar between the cohorts (2.5 events vs 2.3 events per 100 patient years for patients treated with DOAC and ASA compared with DOAC monotherapy, P = .80). Patients were more often hospitalized while undergoing combination therapy (9.1 vs 6.5 admissions per 100 patient years, P = .02). Conclusion and Relevance: Nearly one-third of patients with AF and/or VTE who were treated with a DOAC received ASA without a clear indication. Compared with DOAC monotherapy, concurrent DOAC and ASA use was associated with increased bleeding and hospitalizations but similar observed thrombosis rate. Future research should identify and deprescribe ASA for patients when the risk exceeds the anticipated benefit

Integrated climate-chemical indicators of diffuse pollution from land to water

Management of agricultural diffuse pollution to water remains a challenge and is influenced by the complex interactions of rainfall-runoff pathways, soil and nutrient management, agricultural landscape heterogeneity and biogeochemical cycling in receiving water bodies. Amplified cycles of weather can also influence nutrient loss to water although they are less considered in policy reviews. Here, we present the development of climate-chemical indicators of diffuse pollution in highly monitored catchments in Western Europe. Specifically, we investigated the influences and relationships between weather processes amplified by the North Atlantic Oscillation during a sharp upward trend (20102016) and the patterns of diffuse nitrate and phosphorus pollution in rivers. On an annual scale, we found correlations between local catchment-scale nutrient concentrations in rivers and the influence of larger, oceanic-scale climate patterns defined by the intensity of the North Atlantic Oscillation. These influences were catchment-specific showing positive, negative or no correlation according to a typology. Upward trends in these decadal oscillations may override positive benefits of local management in some years or indicate greater benefits in other years. Developing integrated climate-chemical indicators into catchment monitoring indicators will provide a new and important contribution to water quality management objectives

Dissecting the long-term emission behaviour of the BL Lac object Mrk 421

We report on long-term multiwavelengthmonitoring of blazar Mrk 421 by the GLAST-AGILE Support Program of the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope (GASP-WEBT) collaboration and Steward Observatory, and by the Swift and Fermi satellites. We study the source behaviour in the period 2007–2015, characterized by several extreme flares. The ratio between the optical, X-ray and γ -ray fluxes is very variable. The γ -ray flux variations show a fair correlation with the optical ones starting from 2012.We analyse spectropolarimetric data and find wavelengthdependence of the polarization degree (P), which is compatible with the presence of the host galaxy, and no wavelength dependence of the electric vector polarization angle (EVPA). Optical polarimetry shows a lack of simple correlation between P and flux and wide rotations of the EVPA.We build broad-band spectral energy distributions with simultaneous near-infrared and optical data from the GASP-WEBT and ultraviolet and X-ray data from the Swift satellite. They show strong variability in both flux and X-ray spectral shape and suggest a shift of the synchrotron peak up to a factor of ∼50 in frequency. The interpretation of the flux and spectral variability is compatible with jet models including at least two emitting regions that can change their orientation with respect to the line of sight.http://10.0.4.69/mnras/stx2185Accepted manuscrip

The mechanism of spin and charge separation in one dimensional quantum antiferromagnets

We reconsider the problem of separation of spin and charge in one dimensional quantum antiferromagnets. We show that spin and charge separation in one dimensional strongly correlated systems cannot be described by the slave boson or fermion representation within any perturbative treatment of the interactions between the slave holons and slave spinons. The constraint of single occupancy must be implemented exactly. As a result the slave fermions and bosons are not part of the physical spectrum. Instead, the excitations which carry the separate spin and charge quantum numbers are solitons. To prove this {\it no-go} result, it is sufficient to study the pure spinon sector in the slave boson representation. We start with a short-range RVB spin liquid mean-field theory for the frustrated antiferromagnetic spin-${1\over2}$ chain. We derive an effective theory for the fluctuations of the Affleck-Marston and Anderson order parameters. We show how to recover the phase diagram as a function of the frustration by treating the fluctuations non-perturbatively.Comment: 53 pages; Revtex 3.