The Operational-Bayesian Approach In Reliability Theory

nuloWe emphasize the derivation of likelihood models starting from a well specified problem of interest and finite populations. "Parameters" are given operational meaning. In particular, parameters are specified in terms of different forms of energy. Examples relevant to reliability theory are used to illustrate ideas. Examples in engineering probability are given

A Radial Velocity Study of Composite-Spectra Hot Subdwarf Stars with the Hobby-Eberly Telescope

Many hot subdwarf stars show composite spectral energy distributions indicative of cool main sequence companions. Binary population synthesis (BPS) models demonstrate such systems can be formed via Roche lobe overflow or common envelope evolution but disagree on whether the resulting orbital periods will be long (years) or short (days). Few studies have been carried out to assess the orbital parameters of these spectroscopic composite binaries; current observations suggest the periods are long. To help address this problem, we selected fifteen moderately-bright (V~13) hot subdwarfs with F-K dwarf companions and monitored their radial velocities (RVs) from January 2005 to July 2008 using the bench-mounted Medium Resolution Spectrograph on the Hobby-Eberly Telescope (HET). Here we describe the details of our observing, reduction, and analysis techniques and present preliminary results for all targets. By combining the HET data with recent observations from the Mercator telescope, we are able to calculate precise orbital solutions for three systems using more than 6 years of observations. We also present an up-to-date period histogram for all known hot subdwarf binaries, which suggests those with F-K main sequence companions tend to have orbital periods on the order of several years. Such long periods challenge the predictions of conventional BPS models, although a larger sample is needed for a thorough assessment of the models' predictive success. Lastly, one of our targets has an eccentric orbit, implying some composite-spectrum systems might have formerly been hierarchical triple systems, in which the inner binary merged to create the hot subdwarf.Comment: Published in The Astrophysical Journal, Volume 758, Issue 1, article id. 58 (2012). References updated and Equation (5) corrected. 12 pages, 5 figures, 5 table

Characteristics of patients with chronic back pain who benefit from acupuncture

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although many clinicians believe there are clinically important subgroups of persons with "non-specific" low back pain, such subgroups have not yet been clearly identified. As part of a large trial evaluating acupuncture for chronic low back pain, we sought to identify subgroups of participants that were particularly responsive to acupuncture.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a secondary analysis of data for the 638 participants in our clinical trial comparing different types of acupuncture to usual care to identify baseline characteristics that predicted responses to individualized, standardized, or simulated acupuncture treatments. After identifying factors that predicted improvements in back-related function or symptoms, we determined if these factors were more likely to predict improvement for those receiving the acupuncture treatments than for those receiving usual care. This was accomplished by testing for an interaction between the prognostic factors and treatment group in four models: functional outcomes (measured by the Roland-Morris Disability Scale) at 8 and 52 weeks post-randomization and symptom outcomes (measured with a numerical rating scale) at 8 and 52 weeks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, the strongest predictors of improvement in back function and symptoms were higher baseline levels of these measures, receipt of an acupuncture treatment, and non-use of narcotic analgesics. Benefit from acupuncture compared to usual care was greater with worse pre-treatment levels of back dysfunction (interaction p < 0.004 for the functional outcome, Roland Morris Disability Scale at 8 weeks). No other consistent interactions were observed.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This secondary analysis found little evidence for the existence of subgroups of patients with chronic back pain that would be especially likely to benefit from acupuncture. However, persons with chronic low back pain who had more severe baseline dysfunction had the most short-term benefit from acupuncture.</p

CMB observations from the CBI and VSA: A comparison of coincident maps and parameter estimation methods

We present coincident observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) from the Very Small Array (VSA) and Cosmic Background Imager (CBI) telescopes. The consistency of the full datasets is tested in the map plane and the Fourier plane, prior to the usual compression of CMB data into flat bandpowers. Of the three mosaics observed by each group, two are found to be in excellent agreement. In the third mosaic, there is a 2 sigma discrepancy between the correlation of the data and the level expected from Monte Carlo simulations. This is shown to be consistent with increased phase calibration errors on VSA data during summer observations. We also consider the parameter estimation method of each group. The key difference is the use of the variance window function in place of the bandpower window function, an approximation used by the VSA group. A re-evaluation of the VSA parameter estimates, using bandpower windows, shows that the two methods yield consistent results.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures. Final version. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Comparison of bulk milk antibody and youngstock serology screens for determining herd status for Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus

BACKGROUND: This paper examines the use of Bulk Milk antibody (BM Ab), Youngstock (YS) serology (Check Tests) and Bulk Milk PCR (BM PCR) for determining the presence or absence of animals persistently infected (PI) with Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus (BVDV) within a herd. Data is presented from 26 herds where average herd sizes were 343 and 98 animals for dairy and beef units respectively. Seventeen herds had sufficient data to analyse using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and probability curves enabling calculation of the sensitivity and specificity of BM Ab and YS Check tests for determining the presence of PI animals within herds in this dataset. RESULTS: Using BM Ab to screen a herd for the presence of PI animals, achieved a herd level sensitivity and specificity of 80.00 % (44.39–97.48 %) and 85.71 % (42.13–99.64 %) respectively (95 % confidence intervals quoted). Sensitivity and specificity of YS Check Tests at a cut off of 3/10 Ab positive YS were 81.82 % (48.22–97.72 %) and 66.67 % (22.28–95.67 %) respectively (95 % confidence interval). These results were achieved by comparing the screening tests to whole herd PI searches that took place 1–19 months after the initial screen with a mean interval of 8 months. Removal of this delay by taking BM samples on the day of a whole herd test and simulating a YS Check Test from the herd test data produced improvements in the reliability of the Check Tests. BM Ab sensitivity and specificity remained unchanged. However, the Check Test sensitivity and specificity improved to 90.9 % (58.72–99.77 %) and 100 % (54.07–100 %) respectively (95 % confidence interval) at a cut of off 2.5/10 Ab positive animals. Our limited BM PCR results identified 5/23 dairy farms with a positive BM PCR result; two contained milking PIs, two had non-milking PIs and another had no PIs identified. CONCLUSIONS: Delaying a PI search following an initial herd screen decreased the diagnostic accuracy and relevance of our results. With careful interpretation, longitudinal surveillance using a combination of the techniques discussed can successfully determine farm status and therefore allow changes in BVDV status to be detected early, thus enabling prompt action in the event of a BVDV incursion

A p53-dependent mechanism underlies macrocytic anemia in a mouse model of human 5q- syndrome.

The identification of the genes associated with chromosomal translocation breakpoints has fundamentally changed understanding of the molecular basis of hematological malignancies. By contrast, the study of chromosomal deletions has been hampered by the large number of genes deleted and the complexity of their analysis. We report the generation of a mouse model for human 5q- syndrome using large-scale chromosomal engineering. Haploinsufficiency of the Cd74-Nid67 interval (containing Rps14, encoding the ribosomal protein S14) caused macrocytic anemia, prominent erythroid dysplasia and monolobulated megakaryocytes in the bone marrow. These effects were associated with defective bone marrow progenitor development, the appearance of bone marrow cells expressing high amounts of the tumor suppressor p53 and increased bone marrow cell apoptosis. Notably, intercrossing with p53-deficient mice completely rescued the progenitor cell defect, restoring common myeloid progenitor and megakaryocytic-erythroid progenitor, granulocyte-monocyte progenitor and hematopoietic stem cell bone marrow populations. This mouse model suggests that a p53-dependent mechanism underlies the pathophysiology of the 5q- syndrome

Neutralising antibodies block the function of Rh5/Ripr/CyRPA complex during invasion of <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> into human erythrocytes

An effective vaccine is a priority for malaria control and elimination. The leading candidate in the Plasmodium falciparum blood stage is PfRh5. PfRh5 assembles into trimeric complex with PfRipr and PfCyRPA in the parasite, and this complex is essential for erythrocyte invasion. In this study, we show that antibodies specific for PfRh5 and PfCyRPA prevent trimeric complex formation. We identify the EGF-7 domain on PfRipr as a neutralising epitope and demonstrate that antibodies against this region act downstream of complex formation to prevent merozoite invasion. Antibodies against the C-terminal region of PfRipr were more inhibitory than those against either PfRh5 or PfCyRPA alone, and a combination of antibodies against PfCyRPA and PfRipr acted synergistically to reduce invasion. This study supports prioritisation of PfRipr for development as part of a next-generation antimalarial vaccine

Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits

Drought affects virtually every region of the world, and potential shifts in its character in a changing climate are a major concern. This article presents a synthesis of current understanding of meteorological drought, with a focus on the large-scale controls on precipitation afforded by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land surface feedbacks, and radiative forcings. The synthesis is primarily based on regionally focused articles submitted to the Global Drought Information System (GDIS) collection together with new results from a suite of atmospheric general circulation model experiments intended to integrate those studies into a coherent view of drought worldwide. On interannual time scales, the preeminence of ENSO as a driver of meteorological drought throughout much of the Americas, eastern Asia, Australia, and theMaritime Continent is now well established, whereas in other regions (e.g., Europe, Africa, and India), the response to ENSO is more ephemeral or nonexistent. Northern Eurasia, central Europe, and central and eastern Canada stand out as regions with few SST-forcedimpacts on precipitation oninterannual time scales.Decadal changesin SST appear to be a major factor in the occurrence of long-term drought, as highlighted by apparent impacts on precipitation of the late 1990s ‘‘climate shifts’’ in the Pacific and Atlantic SST. Key remaining research challenges include (i) better quantification of unforced and forced atmospheric variability as well as land–atmosphere feedbacks, (ii) better understanding of the physical basis for the leading modes of climate variability and their predictability, and (iii) quantification of the relative contributions of internal decadal SST variability and forced climate change to long-term drought