Securing the legacy of TESS through the care and maintenance of TESS planet ephemerides

Much of the science from the exoplanets detected by the TESS mission relies on precisely predicted transit times that are needed for many follow-up characterization studies. We investigate ephemeris deterioration for simulated TESS planets and find that the ephemerides of 81% of those will have expired (i.e. 1$\sigma$ mid-transit time uncertainties greater than 30 minutes) one year after their TESS observations. We verify these results using a sample of TESS planet candidates as well. In particular, of the simulated planets that would be recommended as JWST targets by Kempton et al. (2018), $\sim$80% will have mid-transit time uncertainties $>$ 30 minutes by the earliest time JWST would observe them. This rapid deterioration is driven primarily by the relatively short time baseline of TESS observations. We describe strategies for maintaining TESS ephemerides fresh through follow-up transit observations. We find that the longer the baseline between the TESS and the follow-up observations, the longer the ephemerides stay fresh, and that 51% of simulated primary mission TESS planets will require space-based observations. The recently-approved extension to the TESS mission will rescue the ephemerides of most (though not all) primary mission planets, but the benefits of these new observations can only be reaped two years after the primary mission observations. Moreover, the ephemerides of most primary mission TESS planets (as well as those newly discovered during the extended mission) will again have expired by the time future facilities such as the ELTs, Ariel and the possible LUVOIR/OST missions come online, unless maintenance follow-up observations are obtained.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, accepted to AJ; main changes are cross-checking results against the sample of real TOIs, and addressing the impact of the TESS extended missio

Short-Term Trends in Bastardy in Taiwan

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68002/2/10.1177_036319908000500303.pd

Securing the Legacy of TESS through the Care and Maintenance of TESS Planet Ephemerides

Much of the science from the exoplanets detected by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission relies on precisely predicted transit times that are needed for many follow-up characterization studies. We investigate ephemeris deterioration for simulated TESS planets and find that the ephemerides of 81% of those will have expired (i.e., 1σ mid-transit time uncertainties greater than 30 minutes) 1 yr after their TESS observations. We verify these results using a sample of TESS planet candidates as well. In particular, of the simulated planets that would be recommended as James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) targets by Kempton et al., ~80% will have mid-transit time uncertainties >30 minutes by the earliest time JWST would observe them. This rapid deterioration is driven primarily by the relatively short time baseline of TESS observations. We describe strategies for maintaining TESS ephemerides fresh through follow-up transit observations. We find that the longer the baseline between the TESS and the follow-up observations, the longer the ephemerides stay fresh, and that 51% of simulated primary mission TESS planets will require space-based observations. The recently approved extension to the TESS mission will rescue the ephemerides of most (though not all) primary mission planets, but the benefits of these new observations can only be reaped 2 yr after the primary mission observations. Moreover, the ephemerides of most primary mission TESS planets (as well as those newly discovered during the extended mission) will again have expired by the time future facilities such as the ELTs, Ariel, and the possible LUVOIR/Origins Space Telescope missions come online, unless maintenance follow-up observations are obtained

TESS hunt for young and maturing exoplanets (THYME). III. A two-planet system in the 400 Myr Ursa major group

A.W.M. was supported through NASA's Astrophysics Data Analysis Program (80NSSC19K0583). M.L.W. was supported by a grant through NASA's K2 GO program (80NSSC19K0097). This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under grant No. DGE-1650116 to P.C.T. A.V.'s work was performed under contract with the California Institute of Technology/Jet Propulsion Laboratory funded by NASA through the Sagan Fellowship Program executed by the NASA Exoplanet Science Institute. D.D. acknowledges support from NASA through Caltech/JPL grant RSA-1006130 and through the TESS Guest Investigator Program grant 80NSSC19K1727.Exoplanets can evolve significantly between birth and maturity, as their atmospheres, orbits, and structures are shaped by their environment. Young planets (<1 Gyr) offer an opportunity to probe the critical early stages of this evolution, where planets evolve the fastest. However, most of the known young planets orbit prohibitively faint stars. We present the discovery of two planets transiting HD 63433 (TOI 1726, TIC 130181866), a young Sun-like (M∗=0.99±0.03) star. Through kinematics, lithium abundance, and rotation, we confirm that HD 63433 is a member of the Ursa Major moving group (τ=414±23 Myr). Based on the TESS light curve and updated stellar parameters, we estimate the planet radii are 2.15±0.10R⊕ and 2.67±0.12R⊕, the orbital periods are 7.11 and 20.55 days, and the orbital eccentricities are lower than about 0.2. Using HARPS-N velocities, we measure the Rossiter-McLaughlin signal of the inner planet, demonstrating that the orbit is prograde. Since the host star is bright (V=6.9), both planets are amenable to transmission spectroscopy, radial velocity measurements of their masses, and more precise determination of the stellar obliquity. This system is therefore poised to play an important role in our understanding of planetary system evolution in the first billion years after formation.PostprintPeer reviewe

TESS spots a mini-neptune interior to a hot saturn in the TOI-2000 system

Hot jupiters (P 60 $\mathrm{M}_\oplus$) are almost always found alone around their stars, but four out of hundreds known have inner companion planets. These rare companions allow us to constrain the hot jupiter's formation history by ruling out high-eccentricity tidal migration. Less is known about inner companions to hot Saturn-mass planets. We report here the discovery of the TOI-2000 system, which features a hot Saturn-mass planet with a smaller inner companion. The mini-neptune TOI-2000 b ($2.70 \pm 0.15 \,\mathrm{R}_\oplus$, $11.0 \pm 2.4 \,\mathrm{M}_\oplus$) is in a 3.10-day orbit, and the hot saturn TOI-2000 c ($8.14^{+0.31}_{-0.30} \,\mathrm{R}_\oplus$, $81.7^{+4.7}_{-4.6} \,\mathrm{M}_\oplus$) is in a 9.13-day orbit. Both planets transit their host star TOI-2000 (TIC 371188886, V = 10.98, TESS magnitude = 10.36), a metal-rich ([Fe/H] = $0.439^{+0.041}_{-0.043}$) G dwarf 174 pc away. TESS observed the two planets in sectors 9-11 and 36-38, and we followed up with ground-based photometry, spectroscopy, and speckle imaging. Radial velocities from CHIRON, FEROS, and HARPS allowed us to confirm both planets by direct mass measurement. In addition, we demonstrate constraining planetary and stellar parameters with MIST stellar evolutionary tracks through Hamiltonian Monte Carlo under the PyMC framework, achieving higher sampling efficiency and shorter run time compared to traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo. Having the brightest host star in the V band among similar systems, TOI-2000 b and c are superb candidates for atmospheric characterization by the JWST, which can potentially distinguish whether they formed together or TOI-2000 c swept along material during migration to form TOI-2000 b.Comment: v3 adds RV frequency analysis; 25 pages, 11 figures, 14 tables; revision submitted to MNRAS; machine-readable tables available as ancillary files; posterior samples available from Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7683293 and source code at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.798826

The First Habitable Zone Earth-Sized Planet From TESS II: Spitzer Confirms TOI-700 d

We present Spitzer 4.5 μm observations of the transit of TOI-700 d, a habitable-zone Earth-sized planet in a multiplanet system transiting a nearby M-dwarf star (TIC 150428135, 2MASS J06282325–6534456). TOI-700 d has a radius of 1.144^(+0.062)_(-0.061) R⊕ and orbits within its host star's conservative habitable zone with a period of 37.42 days (T_(eq) ~ 269 K). TOI-700 also hosts two small inner planets (R_b = 1.037^(+0.0065)_(-0.064) R⊕ and R_c = 2.65^(+0.16)_(-0.15) R⊕) with periods of 9.98 and 16.05 days, respectively. Our Spitzer observations confirm the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) detection of TOI-700 d and remove any remaining doubt that it is a genuine planet. We analyze the Spitzer light curve combined with the 11 sectors of TESS observations and a transit of TOI-700 c from the LCOGT network to determine the full system parameters. Although studying the atmosphere of TOI-700 d is not likely feasible with upcoming facilities, it may be possible to measure the mass of TOI-700 d using state-of-the-art radial velocity (RV) instruments (expected RV semiamplitude of ~70 cm s⁻¹)