Remittances to Cuba: An Evaluation of Cuban and US Government Policy Measures

Since the commencement of hostilities between Cuba and the US in the early 1960s, both governments have repeatedly attempted to influence private family money transfers across borders. This study undertakes a retrospective assessment of Cuban and US government policy on remittances from 1959 to the present. Tracing policy shifts and targeted outcomes, the paper argues that (1) the aggregate flow of remittances and their uses are highly sensitive to macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors in Cuba, the receiving country, and are less sensitive to the policies imposed by the sending country, the United States; (2) Cuban government policy has been successful in attracting remittances and partially successful in channeling these flows toward the State-controlled economy; and (3) Cuban government policies are encouraging the use of these flows for consumption and less so for savings and direct investment

The moral foundations of illusory correlation

Podeu consultar dades primàries associades a l'article a: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/114909Previous research has studied the relationship between political ideology and cognitive biases, such as the tendency of conservatives to form stronger illusory correlations between negative infrequent behaviors and minority groups. We further explored these findings by studying the relation between illusory correlation and moral values. According to the moral foundations theory, liberals and conservatives differ in the relevance they concede to different moral dimensions: Care, Fairness, Loyalty, Authority, and Purity. Whereas liberals consistently endorse the Care and Fairness foundations more than the Loyalty, Authority and Purity foundations, conservatives tend to adhere to the five foundations alike. In the present study, a group of participants took part in a standard illusory correlation task in which they were presented with randomly ordered descriptions of either desirable or undesirable behaviors attributed to individuals belonging to numerically different majority and minority groups. Although the proportion of desirable and undesirable behaviors was the same in the two groups, participants attributed a higher frequency of undesirable behaviors to the minority group, thus showing the expected illusory correlation effect. Moreover, this effect was specifically associated to our participants' scores in the Loyalty subscale of the Moral Foundations Questionnaire. These results emphasize the role of the Loyalty moral foundation in the formation of attitudes towards minorities among conservatives. Our study points out the moral system as a useful fine-grained framework to explore the complex interaction between basic cognitive processes and ideology

A comparator-hypothesis account of biased contingency detection.

Our ability to detect statistical dependencies between different events in the environment is strongly biased by the number of coincidences between them. Even when there is no true covariation between a cue and an outcome, if the marginal probability of either of them is high, people tend to perceive some degree of statistical contingency between both events. The present paper explores the ability of the Comparator Hypothesis to explain the general pattern of results observed in this literature. Our simulations show that this model can account for the biasing effects of the marginal probabilities of cues and outcomes. Furthermore, the overall fit of the Comparator Hypothesis to a sample of experimental conditions from previous studies is comparable to that of the popular Rescorla-Wagner model. These results should encourage researchers to further explore and put to the test the predictions of the Comparator Hypothesis in the domain of biased contingency detection

Auxílio emergencial e políticas rigorosas de distanciamento social no Brasil: o impacto sobre a mobilidade e as viagens fora de casa não relacionadas a trabalho

Non-pharmaceutical interventions to increase physical distancing have been instrumental in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Governments have enacted stringent public health policies that impose limits on mobility outside the household. However, for containment policies to be effective, there is a growing understanding that emergency aid programs must be designed to ensure that the most vulnerable receive financial and in-kind aid resources to support their ability to "stay at home." In this study, we use survey data from an Oxford /nUSP-FGV collaborative research initiative to empirically assess the effectiveness of these two policies in reducing mobility with an eye to those at-risk or living in conditions of poverty in eight Brazilian capitals. We learn that, in general, neither stringent public health policies and receipt nor promised receipt of the Auxílio Emergencial were effective in limiting mobility outside of the home. We do, however, find limited evidence that receipt or promised receipt of the Auxílio Emergencial marginally limited non-work trips outside of the home, especially in city/state combinations with stringent public health policies. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our findings.Las intervenciones no farmacéuticas para aumentar el aislamiento físico han sido fundamentales para mitigar la propagación del COVID-19. Los gobiernos promulgaron estrictas políticas que imponen límites a la movilidad fuera del hogar. Sin embargo, para que estas políticas de contención sean efectivas, existe un creciente entendimiento de que los programas de transferencia de emergencia deben diseñarse para garantizar que los más vulnerables reciban los recursos de ayuda financiera y/o en especie de forma que respalde la capacidad de "quedarse en casa". En este estudio, utilizamos datos de encuestas de una investigación colaborativa Oxford-USP-FGV para evaluar empíricamente la efectividad de estas políticas en la reducción de la movilidad con miras a las personas en riesgo o que viven en condiciones de pobreza en ocho capitales brasileñas. Los resultados indican que ni el recibo o el potencial de recibir la transferencia de emergencia limito la movilidad fuera del hogar. Sin embargo, encontramos evidencia limitada de que la recepción de la transferencia de emergencia limitó marginalmente los viajes fuera del hogar para viajes no relacionados a trabajo, especialmente en ciudades/estados con políticas de contención mas estrictas. Concluimos discutiendo las implicaciones para las políticas de nuestros hallazgos.Intervenções não-farmacológicas para aumentar o distanciamento físico têm sido fundamentais para mitigar a disseminação da COVID-19. Os governos promulgaram políticas de saúde pública rigorosas que impõem limites à mobilidade fora do lar. No entanto, para que as políticas de contenção sejam eficazes, há um entendimento crescente de que os programas de assistência emergencial devem ser projetados para garantir que os mais vulneráveis recebam auxílio financeiro e em espécie, para sustentar sua capacidade de "ficar em casa". Neste estudo, usamos dados do questionário de uma iniciativa de pesquisa colaborativa Oxford-USP-FGV, para avaliar empiricamente a eficácia dessas duas políticas na redução da mobilidade, com foco em pessoas em situação de risco ou vivendo em condições de pobreza em oito capitais brasileiras. Descobrimos que, em geral, nem as rigorosas políticas públicas de saúde e nem o recebimento ou promessa de recebimento do Auxílio Emergencial foram eficazes para limitar a mobilidade fora de casa. Encontramos, entretanto, evidências limitadas de que o recebimento ou a promessa de recebimento do Auxílio Emergencial limitaram marginalmente as viagens fora de casa não relacionadas a trabalho, especialmente em combinações de cidade/estado com políticas de saúde pública rigorosas. Concluímos discutindo as implicações de nossas descobertas sobre as políticas públicas

Persistence of Causal Illusions After Extensive Training

We carried out an experiment using a conventional causal learning task but extending the number of learning trials participants were exposed to. Participants in the standard training group were exposed to 48 learning trials before being asked about the potential causal relationship under examination, whereas for participants in the long training group the length of training was extended to 288 trials. In both groups, the event acting as the potential cause had zero correlation with the occurrence of the outcome, but both the outcome density and the cause density were high, therefore providing a breeding ground for the emergence of a causal illusion. In contradiction to the predictions of associative models such the Rescorla-Wagner model, we found moderate evidence against the hypothesis that extending the learning phase alters the causal illusion. However, assessing causal impressions recurrently did weaken participants' causal illusions