Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Oxygen Isotopes of Al-Rich Chondrules from Unequilibrated Ordinary Chondrites

Al-rich chondrules (ARCs) are a rare constituent of chondrites. They have relatively high bulk Al_2O_3 content (> 10 wt%), which is due to the presence of Al-rich phases, such as plagioclase, spinel, Al-rich glass etc. [1]. ARCs share some chemical and petrologic characteristics with Ca, Al-rich inclusions (CAis), and may represent a genetic link between ferromagnesian chondrules and CAis

The comparative clinical course of pregnant and non-pregnant women hospitalised with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection

Introduction: The Influenza Clinical Information Network (FLU-CIN) was established to gather detailed clinical and epidemiological information about patients with laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in UK hospitals. This report focuses on the clinical course and outcomes of infection in pregnancy.Methods: A standardised data extraction form was used to obtain detailed clinical information from hospital case notes and electronic records, for patients with PCR-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection admitted to 13 sentinel hospitals in five clinical 'hubs' and a further 62 non-sentinel hospitals, between 11th May 2009 and 31st January 2010.Outcomes were compared for pregnant and non-pregnant women aged 15-44 years, using univariate and multivariable techniques.Results: Of the 395 women aged 15-44 years, 82 (21%) were pregnant; 73 (89%) in the second or third trimester. Pregnant women were significantly less likely to exhibit severe respiratory distress at initial assessment (OR?=?0.49 (95% CI: 0.30-0.82)), require supplemental oxygen on admission (OR?=?0.40 (95% CI: 0.20-0.80)), or have underlying co-morbidities (p-trend <0.001). However, they were equally likely to be admitted to high dependency (Level 2) or intensive care (Level 3) and/or to die, after adjustment for potential confounders (adj. OR?=?0.93 (95% CI: 0.46-1.92). Of 11 pregnant women needing Level 2/3 care, 10 required mechanical ventilation and three died.Conclusions: Since the expected prevalence of pregnancy in the source population was 6%, our data suggest that pregnancy greatly increased the likelihood of hospital admission with A(H1N1)pdm09. Pregnant women were less likely than non-pregnant women to have respiratory distress on admission, but severe outcomes were equally likely in both groups

High-velocity OH megamasers in IRAS 20100-4156: Evidence for a Supermassive Black Hole

We report the discovery of new, high-velocity narrow-line components of the OH megamaser in IRAS 20100-4156. Results from the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP)'s Boolardy Engineering Test Array (BETA) and the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) provide two independent measurements of the OH megamaser spectrum. We found evidence for OH megamaser clumps at $-$409 and $-$562 km/s (blue-shifted) from the systemic velocity of the galaxy, in addition to the lines previously known. The presence of such high velocities in the molecular emission from IRAS 20100$-$4156 could be explained by a ~50 pc molecular ring enclosing an approximately 3.8 billion solar mass black hole. We also discuss two alternatives, i.e. that the narrow-line masers are dynamically coupled to the wind driven by the active galactic nucleus or they are associated with two separate galactic nuclei. The comparison between the BETA and ATCA spectra provides another scientific verification of ASKAP's BETA. Our data, combined with previous measurements of the source enabled us to study the variability of the source over a twenty-six year period. The flux density of the brightest OH maser components has reduced by more than a factor of two between 1988 and 2015, whereas a secondary narrow-line component has more than doubled in the same time. Plans for high-resolution VLBI follow-up of this source are discussed, as are prospects for discovering new OH megamasers during the ASKAP early science program.Comment: Accepted to MNRAS. Seven pages, three figure

Drawing Arrangement Graphs In Small Grids, Or How To Play Planarity

We describe a linear-time algorithm that finds a planar drawing of every graph of a simple line or pseudoline arrangement within a grid of area O(n^{7/6}). No known input causes our algorithm to use area \Omega(n^{1+\epsilon}) for any \epsilon>0; finding such an input would represent significant progress on the famous k-set problem from discrete geometry. Drawing line arrangement graphs is the main task in the Planarity puzzle.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures. To appear at 21st Int. Symp. Graph Drawing, Bordeaux, 201

Electron capture by Ne3+ ions from atomic hydrogen

Using the Oak Ridge National Laboratory ion-atom merged-beam apparatus, absolute total electron-capture cross sections have been measured for collisions of Ne3+ ions with hydrogen (deuterium) atoms at energies between 0.07 and 826 eV∕u. Comparison to previous measurements shows large discrepancies between 50 and 400 eV∕u. Previously published molecular-orbital close-coupling (MOCC) calculations were performed over limited energy ranges, but show good agreement with the present measurements. Here MOCC calculations are presented for energies between 0.01 and 1000 eV∕u for collisions with both H and D. For energies below ∼1 eV∕u, an enhancement in the magnitude of both the experimental and theoretical cross sections is observed which is attributed to the ion-induced dipole attraction between the reactants. Below ∼4 eV∕u, the present calculations show a significant target isotope effect

Learning From Early Attempts to Generalize Darwinian Principles to Social Evolution

Copyright University of Hertfordshire & author.Evolutionary psychology places the human psyche in the context of evolution, and addresses the Darwinian processes involved, particularly at the level of genetic evolution. A logically separate and potentially complementary argument is to consider the application of Darwinian principles not only to genes but also to social entities and processes. This idea of extending Darwinian principles was suggested by Darwin himself. Attempts to do this appeared as early as the 1870s and proliferated until the early twentieth century. But such ideas remained dormant in the social sciences from the 1920s until after the Second World War. Some lessons can be learned from this earlier period, particularly concerning the problem of specifying the social units of selection or replication

A malignant hyperthermia–inducing mutation in RYR1 (R163C): consequent alterations in the functional properties of DHPR channels

Bidirectional communication between the 1,4-dihydropyridine receptor (DHPR) in the plasma membrane and the type 1 ryanodine receptor (RYR1) in the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) is responsible for both skeletal-type excitation–contraction coupling (voltage-gated Ca2+ release from the SR) and increased amplitude of L-type Ca2+ current via the DHPR. Because the DHPR and RYR1 are functionally coupled, mutations in RYR1 that are linked to malignant hyperthermia (MH) may affect DHPR activity. For this reason, we investigated whether cultured myotubes originating from mice carrying an MH-linked mutation in RYR1 (R163C) had altered voltage-gated Ca2+ release from the SR, membrane-bound charge movement, and/or L-type Ca2+ current. In myotubes homozygous (Hom) for the R163C mutation, voltage-gated Ca2+ release from the SR was substantially reduced and shifted (∼10 mV) to more hyperpolarizing potentials compared with wild-type (WT) myotubes. Intramembrane charge movements of both Hom and heterozygous (Het) myotubes displayed hyperpolarizing shifts similar to that observed in voltage-gated SR Ca2+ release. The current–voltage relationships for L-type currents in both Hom and Het myotubes were also shifted to more hyperpolarizing potentials (∼7 and 5 mV, respectively). Compared with WT myotubes, Het and Hom myotubes both displayed a greater sensitivity to the L-type channel agonist ±Bay K 8644 (10 µM). In general, L-type currents in WT, Het, and Hom myotubes inactivated modestly after 30-s prepulses to −50, −10, 0, 10, 20, and 30 mV. However, L-type currents in Hom myotubes displayed a hyperpolarizing shift in inactivation relative to L-type currents in either WT or Het myotubes. Our present results indicate that mutations in RYR1 can alter DHPR activity and raise the possibility that this altered DHPR function may contribute to MH episodes

A Dominant, Recombination-Defective Allele of Dmc1 Causing Male-Specific Sterility

DMC1 is a meiosis-specific homolog of bacterial RecA and eukaryotic RAD51 that can catalyze homologous DNA strand invasion and D-loop formation in vitro. DMC1-deficient mice and yeast are sterile due to defective meiotic recombination and chromosome synapsis. The authors identified a male dominant sterile allele of Dmc1, Dmc1(Mei11), encoding a missense mutation in the L2 DNA binding domain that abolishes strand invasion activity. Meiosis in male heterozygotes arrests in pachynema, characterized by incomplete chromosome synapsis and no crossing-over. Young heterozygous females have normal litter sizes despite having a decreased oocyte pool, a high incidence of meiosis I abnormalities, and susceptibility to premature ovarian failure. Dmc1(Mei11) exposes a sex difference in recombination in that a significant portion of female oocytes can compensate for DMC1 deficiency to undergo crossing-over and complete gametogenesis. Importantly, these data demonstrate that dominant alleles of meiosis genes can arise and propagate in populations, causing infertility and other reproductive consequences due to meiotic prophase I defects