Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios

To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widely used indicators of population abundance Geometric Mean Abundance, equivalent to the Living Planet Index and extinction risk (the Red List Index) under different climate and land-use change scenarios. Testing these on terrestrial carnivore and ungulate species, we found that both indicators decline steadily, and by 2050, under a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, geometric mean population abundance declines by 18-35% while extinction risk increases for 8-23% of the species, depending on assumptions about species responses to climate change. BAU will therefore fail Convention on Biological Diversity target 12 of improving the conservation status of known threatened species. An alternative sustainable development scenario reduces both extinction risk and population losses compared with BAU and could lead to population increases. Our approach to model species responses to global changes brings the focus of scenarios directly to the species level, thus taking into account an additional dimension of biodiversity and paving the way for including stronger ecological foundations into future biodiversity scenario assessments.Peer reviewe

Cross-roads of Life on Earth — Exploring means to meet the 2010 Biodiversity Target. Convention on Biological Diversity Technical Series 31

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S-World: a Global Soil Map for Environmental Modelling

The research community increasingly analyses global environmental problems like climate change and desertification with models. These global environmental modelling studies require global, high resolution, spatially exhaustive, and quantitative data describing the soil profile. This study aimed to develop a pedological approach that takes stock of available legacy and auxiliary data to create a global, 30 arc second soil property database for modelling. The methodology uses the Harmonized World Soil Database and the ISRIC-WISE 3.1 soil profile database. Auxiliary information at 30 arc second resolution for various landscape properties is used to describe the variation in landscape properties (temperature and precipitation, topography, elevation, land use, and land cover). Complex mapping units of the HWSD were first disaggregated using a digital elevation model and toposequences to generate delineated areas described by a single soil type. Secondly, ranges of soil properties per soil type were determined using the soil profile data. Then a meta-analysis on a broad literature survey was used to develop a simple model that, based on landscape properties at a particular location, determines the position within these ranges and thus provides an estimation of the local soil properties. Finally, the model was implemented at the global level to determine the distribution of soil properties. The methodology, denominated S-World (Soils of the world) resulted in readily available, high resolution, global soil property maps that are now available for environmental modelling

First assessment of effects of global change on threatened spiders: Potential impacts on Dolomedes plantarius (Clerck) and its conservation plans

International audienceOur view of the future of biodiversity remains limited to a restricted number of taxa, and some taxa, such as spiders, have been largely omitted. Here we provide the first assessment of effects of global change on threatened spiders using a red-listed vulnerable spider, Dolomedes plantarius (Clerck, 1757) as an example. We aim at applying this assessment to assist two conservation actions for this species, including a translocation program. We compiled all the available data on D. plantarius and modelled its current and future distributions on the basis of both climate and land cover variables at a fine resolution (0.1°). We applied an ensemble modelling procedure on the basi s of eight modelling techniques, and forecasted the future distribution ranges for two emission scenarios (A1 and B2) and three general circulati on models. Despite unce rtainty regarding the predictions, the models performed very well, and consensus emerged for models and climate scenarios to predict significant negative effects on the current distribution range of this species. In the UK, the translocated population and one out of three natural populations were predicted to remain in highly suitable environmental areas. In France, one out of six locations was predicted to remain suitable in the future. Given the phylogeographic background of this species, the predicted effects of environmental changes should be considered seriously, especially for the long-term viability of conservation programs. Our study demonstrated the importance and feasibility of studying the effects of climate change by the means of species distribution models on taxa with limited available data, such as spiders

Forecasted climate and land use changes, and protected areas: the contrasting case of spiders

International audienceAim To assess the exposure of 10 spider species to two drivers of global change (climate and land use), the suitability of the current network of protected areas with respect to this exposure, and the implications for a national conservation programme. Location The western Palearctic and France. Methods We predicted the current and future potential distributions of 10 spider species using species distribution models (SDMs). We explicitly quantified uncertainties in the models and estimated the future environmental suitability with discounted uncertainty. We analysed the predicted future suitability for protected versus unprotected occurrence cells. Results In this first forecast of the future of multiple spider species in the face of environmental changes, we showed that environmental changes could be confidently predicted to have serious impacts on all the studied species, with significant range contractions and expansions within a relatively short timescale (up to 2050). We predicted that for seven of the 10 species, the current network of protected areas will conserve at least one occurrence cell in suitable conditions in the future. However, we showed that there is considerable room for improvement. Main conclusions This study illustrated how SDMs could be applied to a conservation programme for an understudied taxon such as spiders, in spite of significant uncertainties in their predictions. In addition, the uncertainties raised here compel us to emphasize the pressing need to improve our knowledge on understudied taxa such as spiders. We advocate the necessity of increasing monitoring schemes, experiments and forecasts of environmental change effects on a larger and more diversified range of species than is currently the case in the literature

Quantifying Biodiversity Losses Due to Human Consumption: A Global-Scale Footprint Analysis

It is increasingly recognized that human consumption leads to considerable losses of biodiversity. This study is the first to systematically quantify these losses in relation to land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the production and consumption of (inter)­nationally traded goods and services by presenting consumption-based biodiversity losses, in short biodiversity footprint, for 45 countries and world regions globally. Our results showed that (i) the biodiversity loss per citizen shows large variations among countries, with higher values when per-capita income increases; (ii) the share of biodiversity losses due to GHG emissions in the biodiversity footprint increases with income; (iii) food consumption is the most important driver of biodiversity loss in most of the countries and regions, with a global average of 40%; (iv) more than 50% of the biodiversity loss associated with consumption in developed economies occurs outside their territorial boundaries; and (v) the biodiversity footprint per dollar consumed is lower for wealthier countries. The insights provided by our analysis might support policymakers in developing adequate responses to avert further losses of biodiversity when population and incomes increase. Both the mitigation of GHG emissions and land use related reduction options in production and consumption should be considered in strategies to protect global biodiversity