Infectious Default Model with Recovery and Continuous Limit

We introduce an infectious default and recovery model for N obligors. Obligors are assumed to be exchangeable and their states are described by N Bernoulli random variables S_{i} (i=1,...,N). They are expressed by multiplying independent Bernoulli variables X_{i},Y_{ij},Y'_{ij}, and default and recovery infections are described by Y_{ij} and Y'_{ij}. We obtain the default probability function P(k) for k defaults. Taking its continuous limit, we find two nontrivial probability distributions with the reflection symmetry of S_{i} \leftrightarrow 1-S_{i}. Their profiles are singular and oscillating and we understand it theoretically. We also compare P(k) with an implied default distribution function inferred from the quotes of iTraxx-CJ. In order to explain the behavior of the implied distribution, the recovery effect may be necessary.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figure

Methane Mitigation:Methods to Reduce Emissions, on the Path to the Paris Agreement

The atmospheric methane burden is increasing rapidly, contrary to pathways compatible with the goals of the 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement. Urgent action is required to bring methane back to a pathway more in line with the Paris goals. Emission reduction from “tractable” (easier to mitigate) anthropogenic sources such as the fossil fuel industries and landfills is being much facilitated by technical advances in the past decade, which have radically improved our ability to locate, identify, quantify, and reduce emissions. Measures to reduce emissions from “intractable” (harder to mitigate) anthropogenic sources such as agriculture and biomass burning have received less attention and are also becoming more feasible, including removal from elevated-methane ambient air near to sources. The wider effort to use microbiological and dietary intervention to reduce emissions from cattle (and humans) is not addressed in detail in this essentially geophysical review. Though they cannot replace the need to reach “net-zero” emissions of CO2, significant reductions in the methane burden will ease the timescales needed to reach required CO2 reduction targets for any particular future temperature limit. There is no single magic bullet, but implementation of a wide array of mitigation and emission reduction strategies could substantially cut the global methane burden, at a cost that is relatively low compared to the parallel and necessary measures to reduce CO2, and thereby reduce the atmospheric methane burden back toward pathways consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement

Hemodiafiltration maintains a sustained improvement in blood pressure compared to conventional hemodialysis in children-the HDF, heart and height (3H) study

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is prevalent in children on dialysis and associated with cardiovascular disease. We studied the blood pressure (BP) trends and the evolution of BP over 1 year in children on conventional hemodialysis (HD) vs. hemodiafiltration (HDF). METHODS: This is a post hoc analysis of the "3H - HDF-Hearts-Height" dataset, a multicenter, parallel-arm observational study. Seventy-eight children on HD and 55 on HDF who had three 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) measures over 1 year were included. Mean arterial pressure (MAP) was calculated and hypertension defined as 24-h MAP standard deviation score (SDS) ≥95th percentile. RESULTS: Poor agreement between pre-dialysis systolic BP-SDS and 24-h MAP was found (mean difference - 0.6; 95% limits of agreement -4.9-3.8). At baseline, 82% on HD and 44% on HDF were hypertensive, with uncontrolled hypertension in 88% vs. 25% respectively; p < 0.001. At 12 months, children on HDF had consistently lower MAP-SDS compared to those on HD (p < 0.001). Over 1-year follow-up, the HD group had mean MAP-SDS increase of +0.98 (95%CI 0.77-1.20; p < 0.0001), whereas the HDF group had a non-significant increase of +0.15 (95%CI -0.10-0.40; p = 0.23). Significant predictors of MAP-SDS were dialysis modality (β = +0.83 [95%CI +0.51 - +1.15] HD vs. HDF, p < 0.0001) and higher inter-dialytic-weight-gain (IDWG)% (β = 0.13 [95%CI 0.06-0.19]; p = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: Children on HD had a significant and sustained increase in BP over 1 year compared to a stable BP in those on HDF, despite an equivalent dialysis dose. Higher IDWG% was associated with higher 24-h MAP-SDS in both groups

Encapsulating peritoneal sclerosis

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Hemodiafiltration Is Associated With Reduced Inflammation and Increased Bone Formation Compared With Conventional Hemodialysis in Children: The HDF, Hearts and Heights (3H) Study

BACKGROUND: Patients on dialysis have a high burden of bone-related comorbidities, including fractures. We report a post hoc analysis of the prospective cohort study HDF, Hearts and Heights (3H) to determine the prevalence and risk factors for chronic kidney disease-related bone disease in children on hemodiafiltration (HDF) and conventional hemodialysis (HD). METHODS: The baseline cross-sectional analysis included 144 children, of which 103 (61 HD, 42 HDF) completed 12-month follow-up. Circulating biomarkers of bone formation and resorption, inflammatory markers, fibroblast growth factor-23, and klotho were measured. RESULTS: Inflammatory markers interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor-α, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein were lower in HDF than in HD cohorts at baseline and at 12 months (P < .001). Concentrations of bone formation (bone-specific alkaline phosphatase) and resorption (tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b) markers were comparable between cohorts at baseline, but after 12-months the bone-specific alkaline phosphatase/tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b ratio increased in HDF (P = .004) and was unchanged in HD (P = .44). On adjusted analysis, the bone-specific alkaline phosphatase/tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b ratio was 2.66-fold lower (95% confidence interval, −3.91 to −1.41; P < .0001) in HD compared with HDF. Fibroblast growth factor-23 was comparable between groups at baseline (P = .52) but increased in HD (P < .0001) and remained unchanged in HDF (P = .34) at 12 months. Klotho levels were similar between groups and unchanged during follow-up. The fibroblast growth factor-23/klotho ratio was 3.86-fold higher (95% confidence interval, 2.15–6.93; P < .0001) after 12 months of HD compared with HDF. CONCLUSION: Children on HDF have an attenuated inflammatory profile, increased bone formation, and lower fibroblast growth factor-23/klotho ratios compared with those on HD. Long-term studies are required to determine the effects of an improved bone biomarker profile on fracture risk and cardiovascular health

Involvement of the Modifier Gene of a Human Mendelian Disorder in a Negative Selection Process

BACKGROUND:Identification of modifier genes and characterization of their effects represent major challenges in human genetics. SAA1 is one of the few modifiers identified in humans: this gene influences the risk of renal amyloidosis (RA) in patients with familial Mediterranean fever (FMF), a Mendelian autoinflammatory disorder associated with mutations in MEFV. Indeed, the SAA1 alpha homozygous genotype and the p.Met694Val homozygous genotype at the MEFV locus are two main risk factors for RA. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:HERE, WE INVESTIGATED ARMENIAN FMF PATIENTS AND CONTROLS FROM TWO NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES: Armenia, where RA is frequent (24%), and Karabakh, where RA is rare (2.5%). Sequencing of MEFV revealed similar frequencies of p.Met694Val homozygotes in the two groups of patients. However, a major deficit of SAA1 alpha homozygotes was found among Karabakhian patients (4%) as compared to Armenian patients (24%) (p = 5.10(-5)). Most importantly, we observed deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) in the two groups of patients, and unexpectedly, in opposite directions, whereas, in the two control populations, genotype distributions at this locus were similar and complied with (HWE). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:The excess of SAA1alpha homozygotes among Armenian patients could be explained by the recruitment of patients with severe phenotypes. In contrast, a population-based study revealed that the deficit of alpha/alpha among Karabakhian patients would result from a negative selection against carriers of this genotype. This study, which provides new insights into the role of SAA1 in the pathophysiology of FMF, represents the first example of deviations from HWE and selection involving the modifier gene of a Mendelian disorder

Homozygous microdeletion of exon 5 in ZNF277 in a girl with specific language impairment

Peer reviewedPublisher PD