Assessment of water-energy-food nexus in Urmia Lake Basin : towards integrated planning and decision making for basin management

Water scarcity exacerbated with growing demand for water by different sectors has created major environmental, social, and economic challenges for water governance in Urmia Lake Basin, Iran. Tackling this problem calls for an integrated approach that considers the basin as a system with several interconnected elements where any change in one of them will affect other parts as well. Water, Food, and Energy nexus is an approach that can be used to address the interconnection among sectors of a system and the complex mechanism of it. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the influence of the plausible scenarios on the social, environmental and economic sustainability of the Urmia Lake Basin. In this study, a System Dynamic Model was developed to simulate the interactions between different effective variables in water, food, and energy sectors, Urmia Lake and local socio-economic state of the basin. Then, the effect of a number of scenarios on Urmia Lake and the basin were assessed by developed SD model. Indeed, in these scenarios the effect of future meteorological data (precipitation and evaporation), increasing the irrigation efficiency, different ratios of the farmer collaboration, recharging different percentage of the return flow to the lake, buying different portion of agricultural water right for Urmia Lake, reviving only a portion of the lake surface area and the projected values of the domestic and industrial water demand, on the lake were analysed. The results show the changing trend of the lake level is highly sensitive to the plausible climate change scenario. Also, the results illustrate, all of the measures (even with the lowest ratio such as irrigation efficiency of 0.6 with only 30% of the farmers collaboration) being considered to conserve the water in favour of the Urmia Lake, were effective to stop the downward trend of the lake and turn it to upward trend. However, reaching the ecological level requires an action plan considering all of the mentioned measures approaching to decrease the agricultural water demand as much as possible. Furthermore, it is important to assign strict enforcement considering some restrictions such as no more expansion of the crops land area, no growth of abstraction from wells, no change from low water demand crops to the high water demand crops. To increase the net benefit of the agricultural sector and food security, improving the value of the crops water productivity and yields can be a better strategy in comparison to growing the crops land area. Finally, although changing the diesel pump instead of the electric pump provides a suitable condition to monitor the groundwater abstraction, the electricity demand of agricultural sector will be increased dramatically; thus, it is important to find some alternative sources of energy to fulfil this extra demand in the future. All in all, according to the high amount of uncertainty about climate, socio-economic and governmental framework changes, finding a rigid plan undertaking the lake level will reach to the ecological value during a specific period (as a criteria) seems to be a big challenge; but, the amount of water-conserving in the basin for the lake throughout considering and implementing a numbers of small scale but sustainable and effective solutions can be also considered as a practical indicator for assessment of the lake restoration plan

A participatory modelling approach to cognitive mapping of the socio-environmental system of sandy anthropogenic shores in the Netherlands

Sandy Anthropogenic Shores (SAS) are coasts formed or heavily modified by moving large amounts of dredged sand from offshore towards the land. Subsequently, natural processes such as waves, wind, and currents are spreading the sand, where wind can transport sand into the foredune area and reinforce the foredune for long-term coastal safety. Besides improving safety, more expansive beaches and artificial lagoons, which may be part of a SAS design, provide new space for human activities and animal and plant habitats. The landscape of SAS is influenced by humans who manage and utilise the shore for various objectives, including flood safety, recreation, and ecological functions. Consequently, the sustainable management of multifunctional and multi-actor systems like SAS becomes challenging and requires an inter- and transdisciplinary approach to analyse the trade-offs between various socio-environmental functions. Although numerous studies of SAS have been conducted, they have had a sectoral, disciplinary approach and mainly focused on the natural aspects of SAS. In this study, we applied participatory modelling to explore the role of social systems (management activities and their interactions with natural systems) in SAS to broaden insight beyond natural systems and improve management and social acceptance of managerial decisions. We conducted several interviews and workshops with multiple stakeholders. We discussed different management aims and activities in SAS, the essential socio-environmental drivers of the managerial activities, their interactions, and the managerial indicators for analysing the various SAS functions. The elicited knowledge was structured in the form of a collective cognitive map (CCM) developed with stakeholders. We used the designed cognitive map for a qualitative assessment of the influence of some managerial decisions on trade-offs between the multiple functions of SAS. The developed CCM provides suitable ground to start the discussion with multiple stakeholders on the design of SAS as a new coastal management approach. © 2023 The AuthorsThis research is part of the ReAShore Project (20000949–10), funded by the Dutch Research Council (NWO), which we gratefully acknowledge. In addition, we want to thank all the participants from Rijkswaterstaat, Provincial Government, Water Boards, municipalities, Dunea, PWN, Ecorys, Deltares, HKV, Staatsbosbeheer, Royal Van Oord company, professors and Entrepreneurs who kindly supported us by sharing their time and unique knowledge and experience about SAS during interviews and workshops