Incorporating prior knowledge improves detection of differences in bacterial growth rate

BACKGROUND: Robust statistical detection of differences in the bacterial growth rate can be challenging, particularly when dealing with small differences or noisy data. The Bayesian approach provides a consistent framework for inferring model parameters and comparing hypotheses. The method captures the full uncertainty of parameter values, whilst making effective use of prior knowledge about a given system to improve estimation. RESULTS: We demonstrated the application of Bayesian analysis to bacterial growth curve comparison. Following extensive testing of the method, the analysis was applied to the large dataset of bacterial responses which are freely available at the web-resource, ComBase. Detection was found to be improved by using prior knowledge from clusters of previously analysed experimental results at similar environmental conditions. A comparison was also made to a more traditional statistical testing method, the F-test, and Bayesian analysis was found to perform more conclusively and to be capable of attributing significance to more subtle differences in growth rate. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated that by making use of existing experimental knowledge, it is possible to significantly improve detection of differences in bacterial growth rate

Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile Virus in Greece

West Nile Virus (WNV) is the causative agent of a vector-borne, zoonotic disease with a worldwide distribution. Recent expansion and introduction of WNV into new areas, including southern Europe, has been associated with severe disease in humans and equids, and has increased concerns regarding the need to prevent and control future WNV outbreaks. Since 2010, 524 confirmed human cases of the disease have been reported in Greece with greater than 10% mortality. Infected mosquitoes, wild birds, equids, and chickens have been detected and associated with human disease. The aim of our study was to establish a monitoring system with wild birds and reported human cases data using Geographical Information System (GIS). Potential distribution of WNV was modelled by combining wild bird serological surveillance data with environmental factors (e.g. elevation, slope, land use, vegetation density, temperature, precipitation indices, and population density). Local factors including areas of low altitude and proximity to water were important predictors of appearance of both human and wild bird cases (Odds Ratio = 1,001 95%CI = 0,723–1,386). Using GIS analysis, the identified risk factors were applied across Greece identifying the northern part of Greece (Macedonia, Thrace) western Greece and a number of Greek islands as being at highest risk of future outbreaks. The results of the analysis were evaluated and confirmed using the 161 reported human cases of the 2012 outbreak predicting correctly (Odds = 130/31 = 4,194 95%CI = 2,841–6,189) and more areas were identified for potential dispersion in the following years. Our approach verified that WNV risk can be modelled in a fast cost-effective way indicating high risk areas where prevention measures should be implemented in order to reduce the disease incidence

Nogo-A Expression in the Brain of Mice with Cerebral Malaria

Cerebral malaria (CM) is associated with a high rate of transient or persistent neurological sequelae. Nogo-A, a protein that is highly expressed in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) of the mammalian central nervous system (CNS), is involved in neuronal regeneration and synaptic plasticity in the injured CNS. The current study investigates the role of Nogo-A in the course of experimental CM. C57BL/6J mice were infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA blood stages. Brain homogenates of mice with different clinical severity levels of CM, infected animals without CM and control animals were analyzed for Nogo-A up-regulation by Western blotting and immunohistochemistry. Brain regions with Nogo-A upregulation were evaluated by transmission electron microscopy. Densitometric analysis of Western blots yielded a statistically significant upregulation of Nogo-A in mice showing moderate to severe CM. The number of neurons and oligodendrocytes positive for Nogo-A did not differ significantly between the studied groups. However, mice with severe CM showed a significantly higher number of cells with intense Nogo-A staining in the brain stem. In this region ultrastructural alterations of the ER were regularly observed. Nogo-A is upregulated during the early course of experimental CM. In the brain stem of severely affected animals increased Nogo-A expression and ultrastructural changes of the ER were observed. These data indicate a role of Nogo-A in neuronal stress response during experimental CM

Induction of protein citrullination and auto-antibodies production in murine exposed to nickel

Abstract Citrullination, or the post-translational deimination of polypeptide-bound arginine, is involved in several pathological processes in the body, including autoimmunity and tumorigenesis. Recent studies have shown that nanomaterials can trigger protein citrullination, which might constitute a common pathogenic link to disease development. Here we demonstrated auto-antibody production in serum of nanomaterials-treated mice. Citrullination-associated phenomena and PAD levels were found to be elevated in nanomaterials -treated cell lines as well as in the spleen, kidneys and lymph nodes of mice, suggesting a systemic response to nanomaterials injection, and validated in human pleural and pericardial malignant mesothelioma (MM) samples. The observed systemic responses in mice exposed to nanomaterials support the evidence linking exposure to environmental factors with the development of autoimmunity responses and reinforces the need for comprehensive safety screening of nanomaterials. Furthermore, these nanomaterials induce pathological processes that mimic those observed in Pleural MM, and therefore require further investigations into their carcinogenicity

Five-year cost-effectiveness analysis of the European Fans in Training (EuroFIT) physical activity intervention for men versus no intervention

OBJECTIVES: Increasing physical activity reduces the risk of chronic illness including Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and certain types of cancer. Lifestyle interventions can increase physical activity but few successfully engage men. This study aims to investigate the 5 year cost-effectiveness of EuroFIT, a program to improve physical activity tailored specifically for male football (soccer) fans compared to a no intervention comparison group. METHODS: We developed a Markov cohort model in which the impact of improving physical activity on five chronic health conditions (colorectal cancer, Type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke and depression) and mortality was modelled. We estimated costs from a societal perspective and expressed benefits as quality adjusted life years (QALYs). We obtained data from a 4-country (England, Netherlands, Portugal and Norway) pragmatic randomised controlled trial evaluating EuroFIT, epidemiological and cohort studies, and meta-analyses. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of uncertainty in the model's parameter values on the cost-effectiveness results. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate uncertainty and presented this using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs). We tested the robustness of the base case analysis using five scenario analyses. RESULTS: Average costs over 5 years per person receiving EuroFIT were €14,663 and per person receiving no intervention €14,598. Mean QALYs over 5 years were 4.05 per person for EuroFIT and 4.04 for no intervention. Thus, the average incremental cost per person receiving EuroFIT was €65 compared to no intervention, while the average QALY gain was 0.01. This resulted in an ICER of €5206 per QALY gained. CEACs show that the probability of EuroFIT being cost-effective compared to no intervention is 0.53, 0.56 and 0.58 at thresholds of €10,000, €22,000 and €34,000 per QALY gained, respectively. When using a time horizon of 10 years, the results suggest that EuroFIT is more effective and less expensive compared to (i.e. dominant over) no intervention with a probability of cost-effectiveness of 0.63 at a threshold of €22,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude the EuroFIT intervention is not cost-effective compared to no intervention over a period of 5 years from a societal perspective, but is more effective and less expensive (i.e. dominant) after 10 years. We thus suggest that EuroFIT can potentially improve public health in a cost-effective manner in the long term

Advanced Virgo Plus: Future Perspectives

While completing the commissioning phase to prepare the Virgo interferometer for the next joint Observation Run (O4), the Virgo collaboration is also finalizing the design of the next upgrades to the detector to be employed in the following Observation Run (O5). The major upgrade will concern decreasing the thermal noise limit, which will imply using very large test masses and increased laser beam size. But this will not be the only upgrade to be implemented in the break between the O4 and O5 observation runs to increase the Virgo detector strain sensitivity. The paper will cover the challenges linked to this upgrade and implications on the detector's reach and observational potential, reflecting the talk given at 12th Cosmic Ray International Seminar - CRIS 2022 held in September 2022 in Napoli

The Advanced Virgo+ status

The gravitational wave detector Advanced Virgo+ is currently in the commissioning phase in view of the fourth Observing Run (O4). The major upgrades with respect to the Advanced Virgo configuration are the implementation of an additional recycling cavity, the Signal Recycling cavity (SRC), at the output of the interferometer to broaden the sensitivity band and the Frequency Dependent Squeezing (FDS) to reduce quantum noise at all frequencies. The main difference of the Advanced Virgo + detector with respect to the LIGO detectors is the presence of marginally stable recycling cavities, with respect to the stable recycling cavities present in the LIGO detectors, which increases the difficulties in controlling the interferometer in presence of defects (both thermal and cold defects). This work will focus on the interferometer commissioning, highlighting the control challenges to maintain the detector in the working point which maximizes the sensitivity and the duty cycle for scientific data taking