Impact of covariate omission and categorization from the Fine–Gray model in randomized-controlled trials

In this paper, we study the statistical issues related to the omission and categorization of important covariates in the context of the Fine–Gray model in randomized-controlled trials with competing risks. We show that the omission of an important covariate from the Fine–Gray model leads to attenuated estimates for treatment effect and loss of proportionality in general. Our simulation studies reveal substantial attenuation in the estimate for treatment effect and the loss of statistical power, while dichotomizing a continuous covariate leads to similar but less pronounced impact. Our results are illustrated using data from a randomized clinical trial of HIV-infected individuals. The relative merits of conducting an adjusted versus an unadjusted analysis of treatment effect in light of both statistical and practical considerations are discussed

The impact of different CD4 monitoring and switching strategies on mortality in HIV-infected African adults on antiretroviral therapy; an application of dynamic marginal structural models

In Africa, antiretroviral therapy (ART) is delivered with limited laboratory monitoring, often none. In 2003–2004, investigators in the Development of Antiretroviral Therapy in Africa (DART) Trial randomized persons initiating ART in Uganda and Zimbabwe to either laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM). CD4 cell counts were measured every 12 weeks in both groups but were only returned to treating clinicians for management in the LCM group. Follow-up continued through 2008. In observational analyses, dynamic marginal structural models on pooled randomized groups were used to estimate survival under different monitoring-frequency and clinical/immunological switching strategies. Assumptions included no direct effect of randomized group on mortality or confounders and no unmeasured confounders which influenced treatment switch and mortality or treatment switch and time-dependent covariates. After 48 weeks of first-line ART, 2,946 individuals contributed 11,351 person-years of follow-up, 625 switches, and 179 deaths. The estimated survival probability after a further 240 weeks for post-48-week switch at the first CD4 cell count less than 100 cells/mm3 or non-Candida World Health Organization stage 4 event (with CD4 count <250) was 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94, 0.97) with 12-weekly CD4 testing, 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.97) with 24-weekly CD4 testing, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) with a single CD4 test at 48 weeks (baseline), and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.94) with no CD4 testing. Comparing randomized groups by 48-week CD4 count, the mortality risk associated with CDM versus LCM was greater in persons with CD4 counts of <100 (hazard ratio = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.3, 4.3) than in those with CD4 counts of ≥100 (hazard ratio = 1.1, 95% CI: 0.8, 1.7; interaction P = 0.04). These findings support a benefit from identifying patients immunologically failing first-line ART at 48 weeks

Cost effectiveness analysis of clinically driven versus routine laboratory monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in Uganda and Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Despite funding constraints for treatment programmes in Africa, the costs and economic consequences of routine laboratory monitoring for efficacy and toxicity of antiretroviral therapy (ART) have rarely been evaluated. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted in the DART trial (ISRCTN13968779). Adults in Uganda/Zimbabwe starting ART were randomised to clinically-driven monitoring (CDM) or laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM); individual patient data on healthcare resource utilisation and outcomes were valued with primary economic costs and utilities. Total costs of first/second-line ART, routine 12-weekly CD4 and biochemistry/haematology tests, additional diagnostic investigations, clinic visits, concomitant medications and hospitalisations were considered from the public healthcare sector perspective. A Markov model was used to extrapolate costs and benefits 20 years beyond the trial. RESULTS: 3316 (1660LCM;1656CDM) symptomatic, immunosuppressed ART-naive adults (median (IQR) age 37 (32,42); CD4 86 (31,139) cells/mm(3)) were followed for median 4.9 years. LCM had a mean 0.112 year (41 days) survival benefit at an additional mean cost of $765 [95$7386 [3277,dominated] per life-year gained and $7793 [4442,39179] per quality-adjusted life year gained. Routine toxicity tests were prominent cost-drivers and had no benefit. With 12-weekly CD4 monitoring from year 2 on ART, low-cost second-line ART, but without toxicity monitoring, CD4 test costs need to fall below$3.78 to become cost-effective (<3xper-capita GDP, following WHO benchmarks). CD4 monitoring at current costs as undertaken in DART was not cost-effective in the long-term. CONCLUSIONS: There is no rationale for routine toxicity monitoring, which did not affect outcomes and was costly. Even though beneficial, there is little justification for routine 12-weekly CD4 monitoring of ART at current test costs in low-income African countries. CD4 monitoring, restricted to the second year on ART onwards, could be cost-effective with lower cost second-line therapy and development of a cheaper, ideally point-of-care, CD4 test

Ciclosporin A Proof of Concept Study in Patients with Active, Progressive HTLV-1 Associated Myelopathy/Tropical Spastic Paraparesis

HTLV-1 is a retrovirus transmitted through body fluids that is commonly seen in the West Indies, South America and Southern Japan but rarely in the UK. Although most patients remain healthy carriers, HTLV-1 causes serious conditions such as adult T cell leukaemia/lymphoma (ATLL) and HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/Tropical Spastic Paraparesis (HAM/TSP). The infection which is life-long cannot be eradicated and treatments for the associated diseases are limited. We report the encouraging findings of the first UK Medical Research Council funded treatment study for patients with early and/or deteriorating HAM/TSP. Treatment with ciclosporin A, a drug commonly used to dampen the immune system in transplant patients, was investigated. Symptoms and signs of disease, particularly low back pain and muscle stiffness, improved by week 24 and in some patients this improvement persisted after the 48 weeks of treatment, at least to the end of the study at week 72. Most striking was the finding that the amount of HTLV-1 in the fluid around the spinal cord, called cerebrospinal fluid, was reduced during treatment. These findings justify the further study of ciclosporin A in patients with HAM/TSP

Thymic output and CD4 T-cell reconstitution in HIV-infected children on early and interrupted antiretroviral treatment: evidence from the CHER trial.

Objectives: Early treatment of HIV-infected children and adults is important for optimal immune reconstitution. Infants’ immune systems are more plastic and dynamic than older children’s or adults’, and deserve particular attention. This study aimed to understand the response of the HIV-infected infant immune system to early antiretroviral therapy (ART) and planned ART interruption and re-start. Design: We used linear and nonlinear regression and mixed-effects models to describe children’s CD4 trajectories and to identify predictors of CD4 count during early and interrupted ART. Methods: Data from HIV-infected children enrolled CHER trial, starting ART aged between 6 and 12 weeks, was used to explore the effect of ART on immune reconstitution. Results: Early treatment arrested the decline in CD4 count but did not fully restore it to the levels observed in HIV-uninfected children. Treatment interruption at 40 or 96 weeks resulted in a rapid decline in CD4 T-cells, which on retreatment returned to levels observed before interruption. Naïve CD4 T-cell count was an important determinant of overall CD4 levels. A strong correlation was observed between thymic output and the stable CD4 count both before and after treatment interruption. Conclusions: Early identification and treatment of HIV-infected infants is important to stabilize CD4 counts at the highest levels possible. Once stabilized, children’s CD4 counts appear resilient, with good potential for recovery following treatment interruption. The naïve T-cell pool and thymic production of naive cells are key determinants of children’s CD4 levels

A Randomized Open-Label Trial of Artesunate- Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine with or without Primaquine for Elimination of Sub-Microscopic P. falciparum Parasitaemia and Gametocyte Carriage in Eastern Sudan

In areas of seasonal malaria transmission, treatment of asymptomatic carriers of malaria parasites, whose parasitaemia persists at low densities throughout the dry season, could be a useful strategy for malaria control. We carried out a randomized trial to compare two drug regimens for clearance of parasitaemia in order to identify the optimum regimen for use in mass drug administration in the dry season.A two-arm open-label randomized controlled trial was conducted during the dry season in an area of distinct seasonal malaria in two villages in Gedarif State in eastern Sudan. Participants were asymptomatic adults and children aged over 6 months, with low-density P. falciparum infection detected by PCR. Participants were randomized to receive artesunate/sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (AS+SP) combination for three days with or without a dose of primaquine (PQ) on the fourth day. Parasitaemia detected by PCR on days 3, 7 and 14 after the start of treatment and gametocytes detected by RT-PCR on days 7 and 14 were then recorded. 104 individuals who had low density parasitaemia at screening were randomized and treated during the dry season. On day 7, 8.3% were positive by PCR in the AS+SP+PQ group and 6.5% in the AS+SP group (risk difference 1.8%, 95%CI -10.3% to +13.8%). At enrolment, 12% (12/100) were carrying gametocytes. This was reduced to 6.4% and 4.4% by day 14 (Risk difference 1.9% (95%CI -9.3% to +13.2%) in AS+SP+PQ and AS+SP groups, respectively.Addition of primaquine to artemisinin combination treatment did not improve elimination of parasitaemia and prevention of gametocyte carriage in carriers with low-density parasitaemia in the dry season.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00330902

Predicting mortality in sick African children: the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) Score.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in paediatric emergency care units in Africa often occurs within the first 24 h of admission and remains high. Alongside effective triage systems, a practical clinical bedside risk score to identify those at greatest risk could contribute to reducing mortality. METHODS: Data collected during the Fluid As Expansive Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial, a multi-centre trial involving 3,170 severely ill African children, were analysed to identify clinical and laboratory prognostic factors for mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to build a model in this derivation dataset based on clinical parameters that could be quickly and easily assessed at the bedside. A score developed from the model coefficients was externally validated in two admissions datasets from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and compared to published risk scores using Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to identify additional laboratory prognostic factors. RESULTS: A risk score using 8 clinical variables (temperature, heart rate, capillary refill time, conscious level, severe pallor, respiratory distress, lung crepitations, and weak pulse volume) was developed. The score ranged from 0-10 and had an AUROC of 0.82 (95 % CI, 0.77-0.87) in the FEAST trial derivation set. In the independent validation datasets, the score had an AUROC of 0.77 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.82) amongst admissions to a paediatric high dependency ward and 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.82-0.89) amongst general paediatric admissions. This discriminative ability was similar to, or better than other risk scores in the validation datasets. NRI identified lactate, blood urea nitrogen, and pH to be important prognostic laboratory variables that could add information to the clinical score. CONCLUSIONS: Eight clinical prognostic factors that could be rapidly assessed by healthcare staff for triage were combined to create the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) score and externally validated. The score discriminated those at highest risk of fatal outcome at the point of hospital admission and compared well to other published risk scores. Further laboratory tests were also identified as prognostic factors which could be added if resources were available or as indices of severity for comparison between centres in future research studies

Pretreatment CD4 Cell Slope and Progression to AIDS or Death in HIV-Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy—The CASCADE Collaboration: A Collaboration of 23 Cohort Studies

Analyzing data from several thousand cohort study participants, Marcel Wolbers and colleagues find that the rate of CD4 T cell decline is not useful in deciding when to start HIV treatment

Molecular markers of anti-malarial drug resistance in Lahj Governorate, Yemen: baseline data and implications

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This is an investigation of anti-malarial molecular markers coupled with a therapeutic efficacy test of chloroquine (CQ) against falciparum malaria in an area of unstable malaria in Lahj Governorate, Yemen. The study was aimed at assessment of therapeutic response to CQ and elucidation of baseline information on molecular markers for <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>resistance against CQ and sulphadoxine/pyrimethamine (SP).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between 2002 and 2003 the field test was conducted according to the standard WHO protocol to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of CQ in 124 patients with falciparum malaria in an endemic area in Lahj Governorate in Yemen. Blood samples collected during this study were analysed for <it>P. falciparum </it>chloroquine resistance transporter gene (<it>pfcrt</it>)-76 polymorphisms, mutation <it>pfcrt-</it>S163R and the antifolate resistance-associated mutations dihydrofolate reductase (<it>dhfr</it>)-C59R and dihydropteroate synthase (<it>dhps</it>)-K540E. Direct DNA sequencing of the <it>pfcrt </it>gene from three representative field samples was carried out after DNA amplification of the 13 exons of the <it>pfcrt </it>gene.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Treatment failure was detected in 61% of the 122 cases that completed the 14-day follow-up. The prevalence of mutant <it>pfcrt </it>T76 was 98% in 112 amplified pre-treatment samples. The presence of <it>pfcrt </it>T76 was poorly predictive of <it>in vivo </it>CQ resistance (PPV = 61.8%, 95% CI = 52.7-70.9). The prevalence of <it>dhfr </it>Arg-59 mutation in 99 amplified samples was 5%, while the <it>dhps </it>Glu-540 was not detected in any of 119 amplified samples. Sequencing the <it>pfcrt </it>gene confirmed that Yemeni CQ resistant <it>P. falciparum </it>carry the old world (Asian and African) CQ resistant haplotype CVIETSESI at positions 72,73,74,75,76,220,271, 326 and 371.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first study to report baseline information on the characteristics and implications of anti-malarial drug resistance markers in Yemen. It is also the first report of the haplotype associated with CQR <it>P. falciparum </it>parasites from Yemen. Mutant <it>pfcrt</it>T76 is highly prevalent but it is a poor predictor of treatment failure in the study population. The prevalence of mutation <it>dhfr</it>Arg59 is suggestive of emerging resistance to SP, which is currently a component of the recommended combination treatment of falciparum malaria in Yemen. More studies on these markers are recommended for surveillance of resistance in the study area.</p