Using geographically weighted regression to explore the spatially heterogeneous spread of bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales

An understanding of the factors that affect the spread of endemic bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is critical for the development of measures to stop and reverse this spread. Analyses of spatial data need to account for the inherent spatial heterogeneity within the data, or else spatial autocorrelation can lead to an overestimate of the significance of variables. This study used three methods of analysis—least-squares linear regression with a spatial autocorrelation term, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis—to identify the factors that influence the spread of endemic bTB at a local level in England and Wales. The linear regression and GWR methods demonstrated the importance of accounting for spatial differences in risk factors for bTB, and showed some consistency in the identification of certain factors related to flooding, disease history and the presence of multiple genotypes of bTB. This is the first attempt to explore the factors associated with the spread of endemic bTB in England and Wales using GWR. This technique improves on least-squares linear regression approaches by identifying regional differences in the factors associated with bTB spread. However, interpretation of these complex regional differences is difficult and the approach does not lend itself to predictive models which are likely to be of more value to policy makers. Methods such as BRT may be more suited to such a task. Here we have demonstrated that GWR and BRT can produce comparable outputs

Inference of the infection status of individuals using longitudinal testing data from cryptic populations: Towards a probabilistic approach to diagnosis

Effective control of many diseases requires the accurate detection of infected individuals. Confidently ascertaining whether an individual is infected can be challenging when diagnostic tests are imperfect and when some individuals go for long periods of time without being observed or sampled. Here, we use a multi-event capture-recapture approach to model imperfect observations of true epidemiological states. We describe a method for interpreting potentially disparate results from individuals sampled multiple times over an extended period, using empirical data from a wild badger population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis as an example. We examine the effect of sex, capture history and current and historical diagnostic test results on the probability of being truly infected, given any combination of diagnostic test results. In doing so, we move diagnosis away from the traditional binary classification of apparently infected versus uninfected to a probability-based interpretation which is updated each time an individual is re-sampled. Our findings identified temporal variation in infection status and suggest that capture probability is influenced by year, season and infection status. This novel approach to combining ecological and epidemiological data may aid disease management decision-making by providing a framework for the integration of multiple diagnostic test data with other information

Effectiveness of Biosecurity Measures in Preventing Badger Visits to Farm Buildings

This is the final version of the article. Available from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: Bovine tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium bovis is a serious and economically important disease of cattle. Badgers have been implicated in the transmission and maintenance of the disease in the UK since the 1970s. Recent studies have provided substantial evidence of widespread and frequent visits by badgers to farm buildings during which there is the potential for close direct contact with cattle and contamination of cattle feed. METHODOLOGY: Here we evaluated the effectiveness of simple exclusion measures in improving farm biosecurity and preventing badger visits to farm buildings. In the first phase of the study, 32 farms were surveyed using motion-triggered infrared cameras on potential entrances to farm buildings to determine the background level of badger visits experienced by each farm. In the second phase, they were divided into four treatment groups; "Control", "Feed Storage", "Cattle Housing" and "Both", whereby no exclusion measures were installed, exclusion measures were installed on feed storage areas only, cattle housing only or both feed storage and cattle housing, respectively. Badger exclusion measures included sheet metal gates, adjustable metal panels for gates, sheet metal fencing, feed bins and electric fencing. Cameras were deployed for at least 365 nights in each phase on each farm. RESULTS: Badger visits to farm buildings occurred on 19 of the 32 farms in phase one. In phase two, the simple exclusion measures were 100% effective in preventing badger entry into farm buildings, as long as they were appropriately deployed. Furthermore, the installation of exclusion measures also reduced the level of badger visits to the rest of the farmyard. The findings of the present study clearly demonstrate how relatively simple practical measures can substantially reduce the likelihood of badger visits to buildings and reduce some of the potential for contact and disease transmission between badgers and cattle.This work was funded by Defra project number SE3119, http://www.defra.gov.uk/. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

A preliminary study of genetic factors that influence susceptibility to bovine tuberculosis in the British cattle herd

Associations between specific host genes and susceptibility to Mycobacterial infections such as tuberculosis have been reported in several species. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) impacts greatly the UK cattle industry, yet genetic predispositions have yet to be identified. We therefore used a candidate gene approach to study 384 cattle of which 160 had reacted positively to an antigenic skin test (‘reactors’). Our approach was unusual in that it used microsatellite markers, embraced high breed diversity and focused particularly on detecting genes showing heterozygote advantage, a mode of action often overlooked in SNP-based studies. A panel of neutral markers was used to control for population substructure and using a general linear model-based approach we were also able to control for age. We found that substructure was surprisingly weak and identified two genomic regions that were strongly associated with reactor status, identified by markers INRA111 and BMS2753. In general the strength of association detected tended to vary depending on whether age was included in the model. At INRA111 a single genotype appears strongly protective with an overall odds ratio of 2.2, the effect being consistent across nine diverse breeds. Our results suggest that breeding strategies could be devised that would appreciably increase genetic resistance of cattle to bTB (strictly, reduce the frequency of incidence of reactors) with implications for the current debate concerning badger-culling

Long-term management of GERD in the elderly with pantoprazole

The prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) increases with age and elderly are more likely to develop severe disease. Older patients often complain of less severe or frequent heartburn than younger patients and they may present with atypical symptoms such as dysphagia, weight loss, or extraesophageal symptoms. Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are central in the management of GERD and are unchallenged with regards to their efficacy. They are considered safe and more effective than histamine receptor antagonists for healing esophagitis and for preventing its recurrence using a long term maintenance treatment. PPI have minimal side effects and few slight drug interactions and are considered safe for long term treatment. Pantoprazole is significantly effective both for acute and long-term treatment with excellent control of relapse and symptoms. It is well tolerated even for long-term therapy and its tolerability is optimal. Pantoprazole shows to have minimal interactions with other drugs because of a lower affinity for cytocrome P450 than older PPIs. Although the majority of elderly has concomitant illnesses and receive other drugs, this does not adversely effect the efficacy of pantoprazole because of its pharmacokinetics, which are independent of patient age. Clinical practice suggests that a low dose maintenance of PPIs should be used in older patients with GERD

The Formation of the First Massive Black Holes

Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are common in local galactic nuclei, and SMBHs as massive as several billion solar masses already exist at redshift z=6. These earliest SMBHs may grow by the combination of radiation-pressure-limited accretion and mergers of stellar-mass seed BHs, left behind by the first generation of metal-free stars, or may be formed by more rapid direct collapse of gas in rare special environments where dense gas can accumulate without first fragmenting into stars. This chapter offers a review of these two competing scenarios, as well as some more exotic alternative ideas. It also briefly discusses how the different models may be distinguished in the future by observations with JWST, (e)LISA and other instruments.Comment: 47 pages with 306 references; this review is a chapter in "The First Galaxies - Theoretical Predictions and Observational Clues", Springer Astrophysics and Space Science Library, Eds. T. Wiklind, V. Bromm & B. Mobasher, in pres

Immune-Mediated Change in the Expression of a Sexual Trait Predicts Offspring Survival in the Wild

BACKGROUND: The "good genes" theory of sexual selection postulates that females choose mates that will improve their offspring's fitness through the inheritance of paternal genes. In spite of the attention that this hypothesis has given rise to, the empirical evidence remains sparse, mostly because of the difficulties of controlling for the many environmental factors that may covary with both the paternal phenotype and offspring fitness. Here, we tested the hypothesis that offspring sired by males of a preferred phenotype should have better survival in an endangered bird, the houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata undulata). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We tested if natural and experimentally-induced variation in courtship display (following an inflammatory challenge) predicts the survival of offspring. Chicks were produced by artificial insemination of females, ensuring that any effect on survival could only arise from the transfer of paternal genes. One hundred and twenty offspring were equipped with radio transmitters, and their survival monitored in the wild for a year. This allowed assessment of the potential benefits of paternal genes in a natural setting, where birds experience the whole range of environmental hazards. Although natural variation in sire courtship display did not predict offspring survival, sires that withstood the inflammatory insult and maintained their courtship activity sired offspring with the best survival upon release. CONCLUSIONS: This finding is relevant both to enlighten the debate on "good genes" sexual selection and the management of supportive breeding programs

Inferring causal molecular networks: empirical assessment through a community-based effort.

It remains unclear whether causal, rather than merely correlational, relationships in molecular networks can be inferred in complex biological settings. Here we describe the HPN-DREAM network inference challenge, which focused on learning causal influences in signaling networks. We used phosphoprotein data from cancer cell lines as well as in silico data from a nonlinear dynamical model. Using the phosphoprotein data, we scored more than 2,000 networks submitted by challenge participants. The networks spanned 32 biological contexts and were scored in terms of causal validity with respect to unseen interventional data. A number of approaches were effective, and incorporating known biology was generally advantageous. Additional sub-challenges considered time-course prediction and visualization. Our results suggest that learning causal relationships may be feasible in complex settings such as disease states. Furthermore, our scoring approach provides a practical way to empirically assess inferred molecular networks in a causal sense

Physical conditions and chemical abundances in photoionized nebulae from optical spectra

This chapter presents a review on the latest advances in the computation of physical conditions and chemical abundances of elements present in photoionized gas H II regions and planetary nebulae). The arrival of highly sensitive spectrographs attached to large telescopes and the development of more sophisticated and detailed atomic data calculations and ionization correction factors have helped to raise the number of ionic species studied in photoionized nebulae in the last years, as well as to reduce the uncertainties in the computed abundances. Special attention will be given to the detection of very faint lines such as heavy-element recombination lines of C, N and O in H II regions and planetary nebulae, and collisionally excited lines of neutron-capture elements (Z >30) in planetary nebulae.Comment: Book Chapter. 31 pages. 6 Figures. Accepted for publication in the book "Reviews in Frontiers of Modern Astrophysics: From Space Debris to Cosmology" (eds Kabath, Jones and Skarka; publisher Springer Nature) funded by the European Union Erasmus+ Strategic Partnership grant "Per Aspera Ad Astra Simul" 2017-1-CZ01-KA203-03556