Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Development and Validation of the Behavioral Tendencies Questionnaire

At a fundamental level, taxonomy of behavior and behavioral tendencies can be described in terms of approach, avoid, or equivocate (i.e., neither approach nor avoid). While there are numerous theories of personality, temperament, and character, few seem to take advantage of parsimonious taxonomy. The present study sought to implement this taxonomy by creating a questionnaire based on a categorization of behavioral temperaments/tendencies first identified in Buddhist accounts over fifteen hundred years ago. Items were developed using historical and contemporary texts of the behavioral temperaments, described as “Greedy/Faithful”, “Aversive/Discerning”, and “Deluded/Speculative”. To both maintain this categorical typology and benefit from the advantageous properties of forced-choice response format (e.g., reduction of response biases), binary pairwise preferences for items were modeled using Latent Class Analysis (LCA). One sample (n1 = 394) was used to estimate the item parameters, and the second sample (n2 = 504) was used to classify the participants using the established parameters and cross-validate the classification against multiple other measures. The cross-validated measure exhibited good nomothetic span (construct-consistent relationships with related measures) that seemed to corroborate the ideas present in the original Buddhist source documents. The final 13-block questionnaire created from the best performing items (the Behavioral Tendencies Questionnaire or BTQ) is a psychometrically valid questionnaire that is historically consistent, based in behavioral tendencies, and promises practical and clinical utility particularly in settings that teach and study meditation practices such as Mindfulness Based Stress Reduction (MBSR)

Estimating stable isotope turnover rates of epidermal mucus and dorsal muscle for an omnivorous fish using a diet-switch experiment

© 2018, The Author(s). Stable isotope (SI) analysis studies rely on knowledge of isotopic turnover rates and trophic-step discrimination factors. Epidermal mucus (‘mucus’) potentially provides an alternative SI ‘tissue’ to dorsal muscle that can be collected non-invasively and non-destructively. Here, a diet-switch experiment using the omnivorous fish Cyprinus carpio and plant- and fish-based formulated feeds compared SI data between mucus and muscle, including their isotopic discrimination factors and turnover rates (as functions of time T and mass G, at isotopic half-life (50) and equilibrium (95)). Mucus isotope data differed significantly and predictively from muscle data. The fastest δ13C turnover rate was for mucus in fish on the plant-based diet (T50: 17 days, T95: 74 days; G50: 1.08(BM), G95: 1.40(BM)). Muscle turnover rates were longer for the same fish (T50: 44 days, T95: 190 days; G50: 1.13(BM), G95: 1.68(BM)). Longer half-lives resulted in both tissues from the fish-based diet. δ13C discrimination factors varied by diet and tissue (plant-based: 3.11–3.28‰; fishmeal: 1.28–2.13‰). Mucus SI data did not differ between live and frozen fish. These results suggest that mucus SI half-lives provide comparable data to muscle, and can be used as a non-destructive alternative tissue in fish-based SI studies

Rheo-PIV of a shear-banding wormlike micellar solution under large amplitude oscillatory shear

We explore the behavior of a wormlike micellar solution under both steady and large amplitude oscillatory shear (LAOS) in a cone–plate geometry through simultaneous bulk rheometry and localized velocimetric measurements. First, particle image velocimetry is used to show that the shear-banded profiles observed in steady shear are in qualitative agreement with previous results for flow in the cone–plate geometry. Then under LAOS, we observe the onset of shear-banded flow in the fluid as it is progressively deformed into the non-linear regime—this onset closely coincides with the appearance of higher harmonics in the periodic stress signal measured by the rheometer. These harmonics are quantified using the higher-order elastic and viscous Chebyshev coefficients e [subscript n] and v [subscript n] , which are shown to grow as the banding behavior becomes more pronounced. The high resolution of the velocimetric imaging system enables spatiotemporal variations in the structure of the banded flow to be observed in great detail. Specifically, we observe that at large strain amplitudes (γ [subscript 0] ≥ 1), the fluid exhibits a three-banded velocity profile with a high shear rate band located in-between two lower shear rate bands adjacent to each wall. This band persists over the full cycle of the oscillation, resulting in no phase lag being observed between the appearance of the band and the driving strain amplitude. In addition to the kinematic measurements of shear banding, the methods used to prevent wall slip and edge irregularities are discussed in detail, and these methods are shown to have a measurable effect on the stability boundaries of the shear-banded flow.Spain. Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (MEC) (Project FIS2010-21924-C02-02

Automatic evaluation of body-related words among young women: an experimental study

Background: Sociocultural models of body image disturbance have linked the development of body dissatisfaction and eating disorders to exposure to media messages depicting the unrealistically slender female physique. Previous research has demonstrated that exposure to images depicting the thin female ideal has negative effects on some females’ levels of body dissatisfaction. Much of this research, however, has utilised relatively long stimulus exposure times; thereby focusing on effortful and conscious processing of body-related stimuli. Relatively little is known about the nature of females’ affective responses to the textual components of body-related stimuli, especially when these stimuli are only briefly encountered. The primary aim of the current research was to determine whether young women automatically evaluate body-related words and whether these responses are associated with body image concerns, including self-reported levels of appearance schematicity, thin internalisation, body dissatisfaction, and dietary restraint. Methods: An affective priming task was used to investigate whether females automatically evaluate body-related words, and whether this is associated with self-reported body image concerns. In a within-participants experimental design, the valence congruence of the prime and target pairs was manipulated. Participants selected body words as primes in Experiment 1 (N = 27), while normatively selected body words were primes in Experiment 2 (N = 50). Each prime was presented briefly, followed by a target word which participants judged as “good” or “bad”. The dependent variable was response latency to the target. Results: Automatic evaluation was evident: responding to congruent pairs was faster than responding to incongruent pairs. Body image concerns were unrelated to automaticity. Conclusions: The findings suggest that brief encounters with body words are likely to prompt automatic evaluation in all young women, and that this process proceeds unintentionally and efficiently, without conscious guidance. The potential implications for higher order, conscious information processing is discussed

“F*ck it! Let’s get to drinking – poison our livers!”: a thematic analysis of alcohol content in contemporary YouTube music videos

Purpose: To describe the portrayal of alcohol content in popular YouTube music videos. Methods: We used inductive thematic analysis to explore the lyrics and visual imagery in 49 UK Top 40 songs and music videos previously found to contain alcohol content, and watched by many British adolescents aged between 11-18 years, and to examine if branded content contravened alcohol industry advertising codes of practice. Results: The analysis generated three themes. First, alcohol content was associated with sexualised imagery or lyrics and the objectification of women. Second, alcohol was associated with image, lifestyle and sociability. Finally, some videos showed alcohol overtly encouraging excessive drinking and drunkenness, including those containing branding, with no negative consequences to the drinker. Conclusion: Our results suggest that YouTube music videos promote positive associations with alcohol use. Further, several alcohol companies adopt marketing strategies in the video medium that are entirely inconsistent with their own or others agreed advertising codes of practice. We conclude that, as a harm reduction measure, policies should change to prevent adolescent exposure to the positive promotion of alcohol and alcohol branding in music videos

Lethality and Developmental Delay in Drosophila melanogaster Larvae after Ingestion of Selected Pseudomonas fluorescens Strains

The fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, is a well-established model organism for probing the molecular and cellular basis of physiological and immune system responses of adults or late stage larvae to bacterial challenge. However, very little is known about the consequences of bacterial infections that occur in earlier stages of development. We have infected mid-second instar larvae with strains of Pseudomonas fluorescens to determine how infection alters the ability of larvae to survive and complete development.We mimicked natural routes of infection using a non-invasive feeding procedure to study the toxicity of the three sequenced P. fluorescens strains (Pf0-1, SBW25, and Pf-5) to Drosophila melanogaster. Larvae fed with the three strains of P. fluorescens showed distinct differences in developmental trajectory and survival. Treatment with SBW25 caused a subset of insects to die concomitant with a systemic melanization reaction at larval, pupal or adult stages. Larvae fed with Pf-5 died in a dose-dependent manner with adult survivors showing eye and wing morphological defects. In addition, larvae in the Pf-5 treatment groups showed a dose-dependent delay in the onset of metamorphosis relative to control-, Pf0-1-, and SBW25-treated larvae. A functional gacA gene is required for the toxic properties of wild-type Pf-5 bacteria.These experiments are the first to demonstrate that ingestion of P. fluorescens bacteria by D. melanogaster larvae causes both lethal and non-lethal phenotypes, including delay in the onset of metamorphosis and morphological defects in surviving adult flies, which can be decoupled

Study of B0(s)→K0Sh+h′− decays with first observation of B0s→K0SK±π∓ and B0s→K0Sπ+π−

A search for charmless three-body decays of B 0 and B0s mesons with a K0S meson in the final state is performed using the pp collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1, collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV recorded by the LHCb experiment. Branching fractions of the B0(s)→K0Sh+h′− decay modes (h (′) = π, K), relative to the well measured B0→K0Sπ+π− decay, are obtained. First observation of the decay modes B0s→K0SK±π∓ and B0s→K0Sπ+π− and confirmation of the decay B0→K0SK±π∓ are reported. The following relative branching fraction measurements or limits are obtained B(B0→K0SK±π∓)B(B0→K0Sπ+π−)=0.128±0.017(stat.)±0.009(syst.), B(B0→K0SK+K−)B(B0→K0Sπ+π−)=0.385±0.031(stat.)±0.023(syst.), B(B0s→K0Sπ+π−)B(B0→K0Sπ+π−)=0.29±0.06(stat.)±0.03(syst.)±0.02(fs/fd), B(B0s→K0SK±π∓)B(B0→K0Sπ+π−)=1.48±0.12(stat.)±0.08(syst.)±0.12(fs/fd)B(B0s→K0SK+K−)B(B0→K0Sπ+π−)∈[0.004;0.068]at90%CL

Life course trajectories of alcohol consumption in the United Kingdom using longitudinal data from nine cohort studies.

Background Alcohol consumption patterns change across life and this is not fully captured in cross-sectional series data. Analysis of longitudinal data, with repeat alcohol measures, is necessary to reveal changes within the same individuals as they age. Such data are scarce and few studies are able to capture multiple decades of the life course. Therefore, we examined alcohol consumption trajectories, reporting both average weekly volume and frequency, using data from cohorts with repeated measures that cover different and overlapping periods of life. Methods Data were from nine UK-based prospective cohorts with at least three repeated alcohol consumption measures on individuals (combined sample size of 59,397 with 174,666 alcohol observations), with data spanning from adolescence to very old age (90 years plus). Information on volume and frequency of drinking were harmonised across the cohorts. Predicted volume of alcohol by age was estimated using random effect multilevel models fitted to each cohort. Quadratic and cubic polynomial terms were used to describe non-linear age trajectories. Changes in drinking frequency by age were calculated from observed data within each cohort and then smoothed using locally weighted scatterplot smoothing. Models were fitted for men and women separately. Results We found that, for men, mean consumption rose sharply during adolescence, peaked at around 25 years at 20 units per week, and then declined and plateaued during mid-life, before declining from around 60 years. A similar trajectory was seen for women, but with lower overall consumption (peak of around 7 to 8 units per week). Frequent drinking (daily or most days of the week) became more common during mid to older age, most notably among men, reaching above 50% of men. Conclusions This is the first attempt to synthesise longitudinal data on alcohol consumption from several overlapping cohorts to represent the entire life course and illustrates the importance of recognising that this behaviour is dynamic. The aetiological findings from epidemiological studies using just one exposure measure of alcohol, as is typically done, should be treated with caution. Having a better understanding of how drinking changes with age may help design intervention strategies