The critical role of history in scenario thinking: augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology

The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether at a macroeconomic level or within individual organisations there are numerous examples of this, such as the economic crash of 2008, the causes of which had many parallels with those that caused the great depression 80 years previously. On the other hand however, overly-relying on the past as a guide to the future has its own obvious dangers – not least that important future events may have no past precedent. As such, the present paper firstly provides a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of using the past as a guide to the future. It then examines the role of history in scenario work, arguing that history should receive greater emphasis as part of the scenario planning process. We suggest changes to the standard Intuitive Logics (IL) approach to scenario planning which would render learning from history a more central component of the scenario process, in contrast to its current peripheral role. Rather than diminishing scenario planning’s ability to facilitate a consideration of how the future may differ from the past, we show how a greater emphasis on history can enhance consideration of the causality of future change. An adapted IL that has more emphasis on historical analysis can augment scenario planning’s effectiveness as a tool for consideration of the future

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast perio

Toxicity and recovery in the pregnant mouse after gestational exposure to the cyanobacterial toxin, cylindrospermopsin

Cylindrospermopsin (CYN) is a tricyclic alkaloid toxin produced by fresh water cyanobacterial species worldwide. CYN has been responsible for both livestock and human poisoning after oral exposure. This study investigated the toxicity of CYN to pregnant mice exposed during different segments of gestation. The course of recovery and individual responses to the toxin were evaluated. Adverse effects of CYN were monitored up to 7 weeks post-dosing by clinical examination, histopathology, biochemistry and gene expression. Exposure on gestational days (GD) 8–12 induced significantly more lethality than GD13–17 exposure. Periorbital, gastrointestinal and distal tail hemorrhages were seen in both groups. Serum markers indicative of hepatic injury (alanine amino transferase, aspartate amino transferase and sorbitol dehydrogenase)were increased in both groups; markers of renal dysfunction (blood urea nitrogen and creatinine) were elevated in the GD8–12 animals. Histopathology was observed in the liver (centrilobular necrosis) and kidney (interstitial inflammation) in groups exhibiting abnormal serum markers. The expression profiles of genes involved in ribosomal biogenesis, xenobiotic and lipid metabolism, inflammatory response and oxidative stress were altered 24 h after the final dose. One week after dosing, gross, histological and serum parameters had returned to normal, although increased liver/body weight ratio and one instance of gastrointestinal bleeding was found in the GD13–17 group. Gene expression changes persisted up to 2 weeks post-dosing and returned to normal by 4 weeks. Responses of individual animals to CYN exposure indicated highly significant inter-animal variability within the treated groups

Whole-genome DNA/RNA sequencing identifies truncating mutations in RBCK1 in a novel Mendelian disease with neuromuscular and cardiac involvement

Background: Whole-exome sequencing has identified the causes of several Mendelian diseases by analyzing multiple unrelated cases, but it is more challenging to resolve the cause of extremely rare and suspected Mendelian diseases from individual families. We identified a family quartet with two children, both affected with a previously unreported disease, characterized by progressive muscular weakness and cardiomyopathy, with normal intelligence. During the course of the study, we identified one additional unrelated patient with a comparable phenotype. Methods: We performed whole-genome sequencing (Complete Genomics platform), whole-exome sequencing (Agilent SureSelect exon capture and Illumina Genome Analyzer II platform), SNP genotyping (Illumina HumanHap550 SNP array) and Sanger sequencing on blood samples, as well as RNA-Seq (Illumina HiSeq platform) on transformed lymphoblastoid cell lines. Results: From whole-genome sequence data, we identified RBCK1, a gene encoding an E3 ubiquitin-protein ligase, as the most likely candidate gene, with two protein-truncating mutations in probands in the first family. However, exome data failed to nominate RBCK1 as a candidate gene, due to poor regional coverage. Sanger sequencing identified a private homozygous splice variant in RBCK1 in the proband in the second family, yet SNP genotyping revealed a 1.2Mb copy-neutral region of homozygosity covering RBCK1. RNA-Seq confirmed aberrant splicing of RBCK1 transcripts, resulting in truncated protein products. Conclusions: While the exact mechanism by which these mutations cause disease is unknown, our study represents an example of how the combined use of whole-genome DNA and RNA sequencing can identify a disease-predisposing gene for a novel and extremely rare Mendelian disease

Photographic identification of individuals of a free-ranging, small terrestrial vertebrate

Recognition of individuals within an animal population is central to a range of estimates about population structure and dynamics. However, traditional methods of distinguishing individuals, by some form of physical marking, often rely on capture and handling which may affect aspects of normal behavior. Photographic identification has been used as a less-invasive alternative, but limitations in both manual and computer-automated recognition of individuals are particularly problematic for smaller taxa (<500 g). In this study, we explored the use of photographic identification for individuals of a free-ranging, small terrestrial reptile using (a) independent observers, and (b) automated matching with the Interactive Individual Identification System (I(3)S Pattern) computer algorithm. We tested the technique on individuals of an Australian skink in the Egernia group, Slater's skink Liopholis slateri, whose natural history and varied scale markings make it a potentially suitable candidate for photo-identification. From 'photographic captures' of skink head profiles, we designed a multi-choice key based on alternate character states and tested the abilities of observers - with or without experience in wildlife survey - to identify individuals using categorized test photos. We also used the I(3)S Pattern algorithm to match the same set of test photos against a database of 30 individuals. Experienced observers identified a significantly higher proportion of photos correctly (74%) than those with no experience (63%) while the I(3)S software correctly matched 67% as the first ranked match and 83% of images in the top five ranks. This study is one of the first to investigate photo identification with a free-ranging small vertebrate. The method demonstrated here has the potential to be applied to the developing field of camera-traps for wildlife survey and thus a wide range of survey and monitoring applications.Claire E. Treilibs, Chris R. Pavey, Mark N. Hutchinson, C. Michael Bul

Aortic valve replacement in a young patient with essential thrombocytosis

Essential Thrombocythcythaemia (ET) is an uncommon type of myeloproliferative disorder, characterised by both thrombotic and haemorrhagic diathesis. No clear guidelines exist for the pre- and post-operative management of patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the haematological and surgical literature. This condition has profound implications in patients undergoing cardiac surgery with the use of cardiopulmonary bypass, where heparin is used for anti-coagulation. This dilemma is further compounded in the setting of a young patient undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR), where insertion of a mechanical prosthesis would be the procedure of choice. This would require life-long anticoagulation with warfarin which can predispose these patients to catastrophic bleeding. Using a tissue valve will subject the patient to multiple redo operations in the patient's lifetime. We report a young patient with ET requiring AVR and discuss the dilemmas surrounding the choice of prosthesis in this patient

Microscale distribution patterns of terrestrial bryophytes in a subalpine forest: the use of logistic regression as an interpretive tool

This study investigated microhabitat relationships of terrestrial bryophytes in a subalpine forest of coastal British Columbia. Substratum affinities were characterized for dominant bryophytes. Logistic regression analysis was used to gain insight into the ecological determinants of fine scale (0.1 m2) bryophyte distribution by examining the predictive relationship between bryophyte species occurrence and localized environmental conditions, as well as the coverage of other bryophytes. The predictive relationships were compared to evaluate the relative importance of environmental factors versus interspecific interactions in structuring bryophyte communities. The results indicate that bryophytes show unique responses in their relationships to environmental conditions and other bryophytes. Positive feedback appears to be an important process among terrestrial bryophytes in subalpine forests