How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?

Seasonal forecasts of variables like near-surface temperature or precipitation are becoming increasingly important for a wide range of stakeholders. Due to the many possibilities of recalibrating, combining, and verifying ensemble forecasts, there are ambiguities of which methods are most suitable. To address this we compare approaches how to process and verify multi-model seasonal forecasts based on a scientific assessment performed within the framework of the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Quality Assurance for Multi-model Seasonal Forecast Products (QA4Seas) contract C3S 51 lot 3. Our results underpin the importance of processing raw ensemble forecasts differently depending on the final forecast product needed. While ensemble forecasts benefit a lot from bias correction using climate conserving recalibration, this is not the case for the intrinsically bias adjusted multi-category probability forecasts. The same applies for multi-model combination. In this paper, we apply simple, but effective, approaches for multi-model combination of both forecast formats. Further, based on existing literature we recommend to use proper scoring rules like a sample version of the continuous ranked probability score and the ranked probability score for the verification of ensemble forecasts and multi-category probability forecasts, respectively. For a detailed global visualization of calibration as well as bias and dispersion errors, using the Chi-square decomposition of rank histograms proved to be appropriate for the analysis performed within QA4Seas.The research leading to these results is part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (Framework Agreement number C3S_51_Lot3_BSC), a program being implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission. Francisco Doblas-Reyes acknowledges the support by the H2020 EUCP project (GA 776613) and the MINECO-funded CLINSA project (CGL2017-85791-R)

Characterization of the L-Lactate Dehydrogenase from Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans

Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans is a Gram-negative opportunistic pathogen and the proposed causative agent of localized aggressive periodontitis. A. actinomycetemcomitans is found exclusively in the mammalian oral cavity in the space between the gums and the teeth known as the gingival crevice. Many bacterial species reside in this environment where competition for carbon is high. A. actinomycetemcomitans utilizes a unique carbon resource partitioning system whereby the presence of L-lactate inhibits uptake of glucose, thus allowing preferential catabolism of L-lactate. Although the mechanism for this process is not fully elucidated, we previously demonstrated that high levels of intracellular pyruvate are critical for L-lactate preference. As the first step in L-lactate catabolism is conversion of L-lactate to pyruvate by lactate dehydrogenase, we proposed a model in which the A. actinomycetemcomitans L-lactate dehydrogenase, unlike homologous enzymes, is not feedback inhibited by pyruvate. This lack of feedback inhibition allows intracellular pyruvate to rise to levels sufficient to inhibit glucose uptake in other bacteria. In the present study, the A. actinomycetemcomitans L-lactate dehydrogenase was purified and shown to convert L-lactate, but not D-lactate, to pyruvate with a Km of approximately 150 µM. Inhibition studies reveal that pyruvate is a poor inhibitor of L-lactate dehydrogenase activity, providing mechanistic insight into L-lactate preference in A. actinomycetemcomitans

Long-term effect of lifestyle intervention on adiposity, metabolic parameters, inflammation and physical fitness in obese children: a randomized controlled trial

Epidemiology in Pediatrics and Child Healt

On the Coupling Time of the Heat-Bath Process for the Fortuin–Kasteleyn Random–Cluster Model

We consider the coupling from the past implementation of the random-cluster heat-bath process, and study its random running time, or coupling time. We focus on hypercubic lattices embedded on tori, in dimensions one to three, with cluster fugacity at least one. We make a number of conjectures regarding the asymptotic behaviour of the coupling time, motivated by rigorous results in one dimension and Monte Carlo simulations in dimensions two and three. Amongst our findings, we observe that, for generic parameter values, the distribution of the appropriately standardized coupling time converges to a Gumbel distribution, and that the standard deviation of the coupling time is asymptotic to an explicit universal constant multiple of the relaxation time. Perhaps surprisingly, we observe these results to hold both off criticality, where the coupling time closely mimics the coupon collector's problem, and also at the critical point, provided the cluster fugacity is below the value at which the transition becomes discontinuous. Finally, we consider analogous questions for the single-spin Ising heat-bath process

Uncovering the Prevalence and Diversity of Integrating Conjugative Elements in Actinobacteria

Horizontal gene transfer greatly facilitates rapid genetic adaptation of bacteria to shifts in environmental conditions and colonization of new niches by allowing one-step acquisition of novel functions. Conjugation is a major mechanism of horizontal gene transfer mediated by conjugative plasmids and integrating conjugative elements (ICEs). While in most bacterial conjugative systems DNA translocation requires the assembly of a complex type IV secretion system (T4SS), in Actinobacteria a single DNA FtsK/SpoIIIE-like translocation protein is required. To date, the role and diversity of ICEs in Actinobacteria have received little attention. Putative ICEs were searched for in 275 genomes of Actinobacteria using HMM-profiles of proteins involved in ICE maintenance and transfer. These exhaustive analyses revealed 144 putative FtsK/SpoIIIE-type ICEs and 17 putative T4SS-type ICEs. Grouping of the ICEs based on the phylogenetic analyses of maintenance and transfer proteins revealed extensive exchanges between different sub-families of ICEs. 17 ICEs were found in Actinobacteria from the genus Frankia, globally important nitrogen-fixing microorganisms that establish root nodule symbioses with actinorhizal plants. Structural analysis of ICEs from Frankia revealed their unexpected diversity and a vast array of predicted adaptive functions. Frankia ICEs were found to excise by site-specific recombination from their host's chromosome in vitro and in planta suggesting that they are functional mobile elements whether Frankiae live as soil saprophytes or plant endosymbionts. Phylogenetic analyses of proteins involved in ICEs maintenance and transfer suggests that active exchange between ICEs cargo-borne and chromosomal genes took place within the Actinomycetales order. Functionality of Frankia ICEs in vitro as well as in planta lets us anticipate that conjugation and ICEs could allow the development of genetic manipulation tools for this challenging microorganism and for many other Actinobacteria

The CYCLIN-A CYCA1;2/TAM Is Required for the Meiosis I to Meiosis II Transition and Cooperates with OSD1 for the Prophase to First Meiotic Division Transition

Meiosis halves the chromosome number because its two divisions follow a single round of DNA replication. This process involves two cell transitions, the transition from prophase to the first meiotic division (meiosis I) and the unique meiosis I to meiosis II transition. We show here that the A-type cyclin CYCA1;2/TAM plays a major role in both transitions in Arabidopsis. A series of tam mutants failed to enter meiosis II and thus produced diploid spores and functional diploid gametes. These diploid gametes had a recombined genotype produced through the single meiosis I division. In addition, by combining the tam-2 mutation with AtSpo11-1 and Atrec8, we obtained plants producing diploid gametes through a mitotic-like division that were genetically identical to their parents. Thus tam alleles displayed phenotypes very similar to that of the previously described osd1 mutant. Combining tam and osd1 mutations leads to a failure in the prophase to meiosis I transition during male meiosis and to the production of tetraploid spores and gametes. This suggests that TAM and OSD1 are involved in the control of both meiotic transitions

The endothelial glycocalyx: composition, functions, and visualization

This review aims at presenting state-of-the-art knowledge on the composition and functions of the endothelial glycocalyx. The endothelial glycocalyx is a network of membrane-bound proteoglycans and glycoproteins, covering the endothelium luminally. Both endothelium- and plasma-derived soluble molecules integrate into this mesh. Over the past decade, insight has been gained into the role of the glycocalyx in vascular physiology and pathology, including mechanotransduction, hemostasis, signaling, and blood cell–vessel wall interactions. The contribution of the glycocalyx to diabetes, ischemia/reperfusion, and atherosclerosis is also reviewed. Experimental data from the micro- and macrocirculation alludes at a vasculoprotective role for the glycocalyx. Assessing this possible role of the endothelial glycocalyx requires reliable visualization of this delicate layer, which is a great challenge. An overview is given of the various ways in which the endothelial glycocalyx has been visualized up to now, including first data from two-photon microscopic imaging

Nitric oxide (NO) elicits aminoglycoside tolerance in Escherichia coli but antibiotic resistance gene carriage and NO sensitivity have not co-evolved

The spread of multidrug-resistance in Gram-negative bacterial pathogens presents a major clinical challenge, and new approaches are required to combat these organisms. Nitric oxide (NO) is a well-known antimicrobial that is produced by the immune system in response to infection, and numerous studies have demonstrated that NO is a respiratory inhibitor with both bacteriostatic and bactericidal properties. However, given that loss of aerobic respiratory complexes is known to diminish antibiotic efficacy, it was hypothesised that the potent respiratory inhibitor NO would elicit similar effects. Indeed, the current work demonstrates that pre-exposure to NO-releasers elicits a >10-fold increase in IC50 for gentamicin against pathogenic E. coli (i.e. a huge decrease in lethality). It was therefore hypothesised that hyper-sensitivity to NO may have arisen in bacterial pathogens, and that this trait could promote the acquisition of antibiotic-resistance mechanisms through enabling cells to persist in the presence of toxic levels of antibiotic. To test this hypothesis, genomics and microbiological approaches were used to screen a collection of E. coli clinical isolates for antibiotic susceptibility and NO tolerance, although the data did not support a correlation between increased carriage of antibiotic resistance genes and NO tolerance. However, the current work has important implications for how antibiotic susceptibility might be measured in future (i.e. +/- NO), and underlines the evolutionary advantage for bacterial pathogens to maintain tolerance to toxic levels of NO

The transcriptomics of an experimentally evolved plant-virus interaction

[EN] Models of plant-virus interaction assume that the ability of a virus to infect a host genotype depends on the matching between virulence and resistance genes. Recently, we evolved tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) lineages on different ecotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana, and found that some ecotypes selected for specialist viruses whereas others selected for generalists. Here we sought to evaluate the transcriptomic basis of such relationships. We have characterized the transcriptomic responses of five ecotypes infected with the ancestral and evolved viruses. Genes and functional categories differentially expressed by plants infected with local TEV isolates were identified, showing heterogeneous responses among ecotypes, although significant parallelism existed among lineages evolved in the same ecotype. 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