Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

OBJECTIVE: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden. METHODS: Key changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections include: availability of a range of incidence calculation models and guidance for selecting a model; a shift to reporting the Bayesian median instead of the maximum likelihood estimate; procedures for comparison and validation against reported HIV and AIDS data; incorporation of national surveys as an integral part of the fitting and calibration procedure, allowing survey trends to inform the fit; improved antenatal clinic calibration procedures in countries without surveys; adjustment of national antiretroviral therapy reports used in the fitting to include only those aged 15–49 years; better estimates of mortality among people who inject drugs; and enhancements to speed fitting. RESULTS: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data. CONCLUSION: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning

The complexity of multidisciplinary respiratory care in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Motor neurone disease/amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder with no known cure, where death is usually secondary to progressive respiratory failure. Assisting people with ALS through their disease journey is complex and supported by clinics that provide comprehensive multidisciplinary care (MDC). This review aims to apply both a respiratory and a complexity lens to the key roles and areas of practice within the MDC model in ALS. Models of noninvasive ventilation care, and considerations in the provision of palliative therapy, respiratory support, and speech and language therapy are discussed. The impact on people living with ALS of both inequitable funding models and the complexity of clinical care decisions are illustrated using case vignettes. Considerations of the impact of emerging antisense and gene modifying therapies on MDC challenges are also highlighted. The review seeks to illustrate how MDC members contribute to collective decision-making in ALS, how the sum of the parts is greater than any individual care component or health professional, and that the MDC per se adds value to the person living with ALS. Through this approach we hope to support clinicians to navigate the space between what are minimum, guideline-driven, standards of care and what excellent, person-centred ALS care that fully embraces complexity could be

Does self-monitoring reduce blood pressure? Meta-analysis with meta-regression of randomized controlled trials

Introduction. Self-monitoring of blood pressure (BP) is an increasingly common part of hypertension management. The objectives of this systematic review were to evaluate the systolic and diastolic BP reduction, and achievement of target BP, associated with self-monitoring. Methods. MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, database of abstracts of clinical effectiveness, the health technology assessment database, the NHS economic evaluation database, and the TRIP database were searched for studies where the intervention included self-monitoring of BP and the outcome was change in office/ambulatory BP or proportion with controlled BP. Two reviewers independently extracted data. Meta-analysis using a random effects model was combined with meta-regression to investigate heterogeneity in effect sizes. Results. A total of 25 eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (27 comparisons) were identified. Office systolic BP (20 RCTs, 21 comparisons, 5,898 patients) and diastolic BP (23 RCTs, 25 comparisons, 6,038 patients) were significantly reduced in those who self-monitored compared to usual care (weighted mean difference (WMD) systolic −3.82 mmHg (95% confidence interval −5.61 to −2.03), diastolic −1.45 mmHg (−1.95 to −0.94)). Self-monitoring increased the chance of meeting office BP targets (12 RCTs, 13 comparisons, 2,260 patients, relative risk = 1.09 (1.02 to 1.16)). There was significant heterogeneity between studies for all three comparisons, which could be partially accounted for by the use of additional co-interventions. Conclusion. Self-monitoring reduces blood pressure by a small but significant amount. Meta-regression could only account for part of the observed heterogeneity

Transitions from Injection-Drug-Use-Concentrated to Self-Sustaining Heterosexual HIV Epidemics: Patterns in the International Data

Background: Injecting drug use continues to be a primary driver of HIV epidemics in many parts of the world. Many people who inject drugs (PWID) are sexually active, so it is possible that high-seroprevalence HIV epidemics among PWID may initiate self-sustaining heterosexual transmission epidemics. Methods: Fourteen countries that had experienced high seroprevalence (,20%) HIV epidemics among PWID and had reliable data for injection drug use (IDU) and heterosexual cases of HIV or AIDS were identified. Graphs of newly reported HIV or AIDS cases among PWID and heterosexuals were constructed to identify temporal relationships between the two types of epidemics. The year in which newly reported cases among heterosexuals surpassed newly reported cases among PWID, aspects of the epidemic curves, and epidemic case histories were analyzed to assess whether it was ‘‘plausible’ ’ or ‘‘highly unlikely’ ’ that the HIV epidemic among PWID might have initiated the heterosexual epidemic in each country. Results: Transitions have occurred in 11 of the 14 countries. Two types of temporal relationships between IDU and heterosexual HIV epidemics were identified, rapid high incidence transitions vs. delayed, low incidence transitions. In six countries it appears ‘‘plausible’ ’ that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic, and in five countries it appears ‘‘highly unlikely’ ’ that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic. A rapid decline in incidence among PWID after the peak year of new cases and national income were the best predictors of the ‘‘highly unlikely’ ’ initiation of a heterosexua

Size estimation of injecting drug users (IDU) using multiplier method in five Districts of India

The HIV epidemic in Manipur, the highest HIV prevalence state of India, is primarily driven by injecting drug use. Reliable estimate of population size of injecting drug users (IDU) is critical for aiding HIV prevention program in the state to combat drug driven HIV epidemic. The study described multiplier method, an indirect technique of estimation of IDU size in five districts of Manipur, India making use of existing records of rapid intervention and care (RIAC) programs. Number of IDUs who accessed RIAC services during the past 12 months was taken as the benchmark data for the size estimation. The benchmark data were then multiplied by the inverse of the proportion of the IDUs who reported having accessed RIAC services during the same period to derive the sizes of IDU population in each study districts. The estimated sizes of IDU population in five districts were: 7353 (95% CI: 6759-8123) in Imphal West, 5806 (95% CI: 5635-6054) in Imphal East, 3816 (95% CI: 3571-4139) in Thoubal, 2615 (95% CI: 2528-2731) in Churachandpur and 2137 (95% CI: 1979-2343) in Bishenpur district. Multiplier method seems to be a feasible indirect technique which can be applied to estimate of IDU population using existing data from intervention programs in settings like Manipur where reliable size estimation of IDU population is lacking

Incorporating scale dependence in disease burden estimates:the case of human African trypanosomiasis in Uganda

The WHO has established the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) as a metric for measuring the burden of human disease and injury globally. However, most DALY estimates have been calculated as national totals. We mapped spatial variation in the burden of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) in Uganda for the years 2000-2009. This represents the first geographically delimited estimation of HAT disease burden at the sub-country scale.Disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) totals for HAT were estimated based on modelled age and mortality distributions, mapped using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software, and summarised by parish and district. While the national total burden of HAT is low relative to other conditions, high-impact districts in Uganda had DALY rates comparable to the national burden rates for major infectious diseases. The calculated average national DALY rate for 2000-2009 was 486.3 DALYs/100 000 persons/year, whereas three districts afflicted by rhodesiense HAT in southeastern Uganda had burden rates above 5000 DALYs/100 000 persons/year, comparable to national GBD 2004 average burden rates for malaria and HIV/AIDS.These results provide updated and improved estimates of HAT burden across Uganda, taking into account sensitivity to under-reporting. Our results highlight the critical importance of spatial scale in disease burden analyses. National aggregations of disease burden have resulted in an implied bias against highly focal diseases for which geographically targeted interventions may be feasible and cost-effective. This has significant implications for the use of DALY estimates to prioritize disease interventions and inform cost-benefit analyses

Ethanol reversal of tolerance to the respiratory depressant effects of morphine

Opioids are the most common drugs associated with unintentional drug overdose. Death results from respiratory depression. Prolonged use of opioids results in the development of tolerance but the degree of tolerance is thought to vary between different effects of the drugs. Many opioid addicts regularly consume alcohol (ethanol), and post-mortem analyses of opioid overdose deaths have revealed an inverse correlation between blood morphine and ethanol levels. In the present study, we determined whether ethanol reduced tolerance to the respiratory depressant effects of opioids. Mice were treated with opioids (morphine, methadone, or buprenorphine) for up to 6 days. Respiration was measured in freely moving animals breathing 5% CO(2) in air in plethysmograph chambers. Antinociception (analgesia) was measured as the latency to remove the tail from a thermal stimulus. Opioid tolerance was assessed by measuring the response to a challenge dose of morphine (10 mg/kg i.p.). Tolerance developed to the respiratory depressant effect of morphine but at a slower rate than tolerance to its antinociceptive effect. A low dose of ethanol (0.3 mg/kg) alone did not depress respiration but in prolonged morphine-treated animals respiratory depression was observed when ethanol was co-administered with the morphine challenge. Ethanol did not alter the brain levels of morphine. In contrast, in methadone- or buprenorphine-treated animals no respiratory depression was observed when ethanol was co-administered along with the morphine challenge. As heroin is converted to morphine in man, selective reversal of morphine tolerance by ethanol may be a contributory factor in heroin overdose deaths

Selective accumulation of langerhans-type dendritic cells in small airways of patients with COPD

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dendritic cells (DC) linking innate and adaptive immune responses are present in human lungs, but the characterization of different subsets and their role in COPD pathogenesis remain to be elucidated. The aim of this study is to characterize and quantify pulmonary myeloid DC subsets in small airways of current and ex-smokers with or without COPD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Myeloid DC were characterized using flowcytometry on single cell suspensions of digested human lung tissue. Immunohistochemical staining for langerin, BDCA-1, CD1a and DC-SIGN was performed on surgical resection specimens from 85 patients. Expression of factors inducing Langerhans-type DC (LDC) differentiation was evaluated by RT-PCR on total lung RNA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two segregated subsets of tissue resident pulmonary myeloid DC were identified in single cell suspensions by flowcytometry: the langerin+ LDC and the DC-SIGN+ interstitial-type DC (intDC). LDC partially expressed the markers CD1a and BDCA-1, which are also present on their known blood precursors. In contrast, intDC did not express langerin, CD1a or BDCA-1, but were more closely related to monocytes.</p> <p>Quantification of DC in the small airways by immunohistochemistry revealed a higher number of LDC in current smokers without COPD and in COPD patients compared to never smokers and ex-smokers without COPD. Importantly, there was no difference in the number of LDC between current and ex-smoking COPD patients.</p> <p>In contrast, the number of intDC did not differ between study groups. Interestingly, the number of BDCA-1+ DC was significantly lower in COPD patients compared to never smokers and further decreased with the severity of the disease. In addition, the accumulation of LDC in the small airways significantly correlated with the expression of the LDC inducing differentiation factor activin-A.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Myeloid DC differentiation is altered in small airways of current smokers and COPD patients resulting in a selective accumulation of the LDC subset which correlates with the pulmonary expression of the LDC-inducing differentiation factor activin-A. This study identified the LDC subset as an interesting focus for future research in COPD pathogenesis.</p

Impact of unstable housing on all-cause mortality among persons who inject drugs

BACKGROUND: Illicit drug injecting is a well-established risk factor for morbidity and mortality. However, a limited number of prospective studies have examined the independent effect of unstable housing on mortality among persons who inject drugs (PWIDs). In this study we sought to identify if a relationship exists between unstable housing and all-cause mortality among PWIDs living in Vancouver, Canada. METHODS: PWIDs participating in two prospective cohort studies in Vancouver, Canada were followed between May 1996 and December 2012. Cohort data were linked to the provincial vital statistics database to ascertain mortality rates and causes of death. We used multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression to determine factors associated with all-cause mortality and to investigate the independent relationship between unstable housing and time to all-cause mortality. RESULTS: During the study period, 2453 individuals were followed for a median of 69 months (Inter-quartile range [IQR]: 34 – 113). In total, there were 515 (21.0%) deaths for an incidence density of 3.1 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 2.8 – 3.4) deaths per 100 person years. In multivariate analyses, after adjusting for potential confounders including HIV infection and drug use patterns, unstable housing remained independently associated with all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.08 – 1.56). CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that unstable housing is an important risk factor for mortality independent of known risk factors including HIV infection and patterns of drug use. This study highlights the urgent need to provide supportive housing interventions to address elevated levels of preventable mortality among this population

Modelling the effects of glucagon during glucose tolerance testing.

From Europe PMC via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: ppub 2019-12-01, epub 2019-12-12Publication status: PublishedBACKGROUND:Glucose tolerance testing is a tool used to estimate glucose effectiveness and insulin sensitivity in diabetic patients. The importance of such tests has prompted the development and utilisation of mathematical models that describe glucose kinetics as a function of insulin activity. The hormone glucagon, also plays a fundamental role in systemic plasma glucose regulation and is secreted reciprocally to insulin, stimulating catabolic glucose utilisation. However, regulation of glucagon secretion by α-cells is impaired in type-1 and type-2 diabetes through pancreatic islet dysfunction. Despite this, inclusion of glucagon activity when modelling the glucose kinetics during glucose tolerance testing is often overlooked. This study presents two mathematical models of a glucose tolerance test that incorporate glucose-insulin-glucagon dynamics. The first model describes a non-linear relationship between glucagon and glucose, whereas the second model assumes a linear relationship. RESULTS:Both models are validated against insulin-modified and glucose infusion intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) data, as well as insulin infusion data, and are capable of estimating patient glucose effectiveness (sG) and insulin sensitivity (sI). Inclusion of glucagon dynamics proves to provide a more detailed representation of the metabolic portrait, enabling estimation of two new diagnostic parameters: glucagon effectiveness (sE) and glucagon sensitivity (δ). CONCLUSIONS:The models are used to investigate how different degrees of pax'tient glucagon sensitivity and effectiveness affect the concentration of blood glucose and plasma glucagon during IVGTT and insulin infusion tests, providing a platform from which the role of glucagon dynamics during a glucose tolerance test may be investigated and predicted