How to halt the global decline of lands

The assessment of land degradation and restoration by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services shows that land degradation across the globe is a wide and severe issue and is showing no signs of slowing down. This trend must be halted and reversed

Predicted Disappearance of Cephalantheropsis obcordata in Luofu Mountain Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>In the past century, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.74°C and extreme weather events have become prevalent. Recent studies have shown that species have shifted from high-elevation areas to low ones because the rise in temperature has increased rainfall. These outcomes challenge the existing hypothesis about the responses of species to climate change.</p> <h3>Methodology/Principal Findings</h3><p>With the use of data on the biological characteristics and reproductive behavior of <em>Cephalantheropsis obcordata</em> in Luofu Mountain, Guangdong, China, trends in the population size of the species were predicted based on several factors. The response of <em>C. obcordata</em> to climate change was verified by integrating it with analytical findings on meteorological data and an artificially simulated environment of water change. The results showed that <em>C. obcordata</em> can grow only in waterlogged streams. The species can produce fruit with many seeds by insect pollination; however, very few seeds can burgeon to become seedlings, with most of those seedlings not maturing into the sexually reproductive phase, and grass plants will die after reproduction. The current population's age pyramid is kettle-shaped; it has a Deevey type I survival curve; and its net reproductive rate, intrinsic rate of increase, as well as finite rate of increase are all very low. The population used in the artificial simulation perished due to seasonal drought.</p> <h3>Conclusions</h3><p>The change in rainfall patterns caused by climate warming has altered the water environment of <em>C. obcordata</em> in Luofu Mountain, thereby restricting seed burgeoning as well as seedling growth and shortening the life span of the plant. The growth rate of the <em>C. obcordata</em> population is in descending order, and models of population trend predict that the population in Luofu Mountain will disappear in 23 years.</p> </div

Shifting Global Invasive Potential of European Plants with Climate Change

Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055) climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species

Scholarship on urban Africa’s water crisis narratives: the state of the art

Water crises present a global water governance challenge. To date, scholarship has tended to focus on technological and policy-based solutions, while ignoring the influence of narratives on public buy-in during such crises. Africa is expected to become hotter and drier in future, while its cities experience high levels of informal population growth and inequality. These factors combine to make African cities particularly vulnerable to times of water stress. The aim in this paper is to investigate the state of the ‘art’ on narratives framing domestic water use in African cities during periods of acute water stress and ‘crises’, using a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed academic journal articles. The findings revealed a small population of recently published papers that engage critically with state-generated narratives framing the crisis, limited to case studies on Cape Town and Windhoek. We recommend, however, a greater critical engagement with the anti-establishment narratives that can flourish during periods of acute water stress, and tend to be inflammatory and divisive in nature

Conservation during times of change: correlations between birds, climate, and people in South Africa

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Biodiversity conservation - uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk - effects of changes in climate and land use - climate change and extinction - reply

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Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (18%) than mid-range (24%) and maximum-change (35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration

Informing species conservation at multiple scales using data collected for marine mammal stock assessments

Background\ud Conservation planning and the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) requires spatially explicit information on the distribution of ecological features. Most species of marine mammals range over large areas and across multiple planning regions. The spatial distributions of marine mammals are difficult to predict using habitat modelling at ecological scales because of insufficient understanding of their habitat needs, however, relevant information may be available from surveys conducted to inform mandatory stock assessments.\ud \ud Methodology and Results\ud We use a 20-year time series of systematic aerial surveys of dugong (Dugong dugong) abundance to create spatially-explicit models of dugong distribution and relative density at the scale of the coastal waters of northeast Australia (~136,000 km2). We interpolated the corrected data at the scale of 2 km * 2 km planning units using geostatistics. Planning units were classified as low, medium, high and very high dugong density on the basis of the relative density of dugongs estimated from the models and a frequency analysis. Torres Strait was identified as the most significant dugong habitat in northeast Australia and the most globally significant habitat known for any member of the Order Sirenia. The models are used by local, State and Federal agencies to inform management decisions related to the Indigenous harvest of dugongs, gill-net fisheries and Australia's National Representative System of Marine Protected Areas.\ud \ud Conclusion/Significance\ud In this paper we demonstrate that spatially-explicit population models add value to data collected for stock assessments, provide a robust alternative to predictive habitat distribution models, and inform species conservation at multiple scales