Simulating Dynamical Features of Escape Panic

One of the most disastrous forms of collective human behaviour is the kind of crowd stampede induced by panic, often leading to fatalities as people are crushed or trampled. Sometimes this behaviour is triggered in life-threatening situations such as fires in crowded buildings; at other times, stampedes can arise from the rush for seats or seemingly without causes. Tragic examples within recent months include the panics in Harare, Zimbabwe, and at the Roskilde rock concert in Denmark. Although engineers are finding ways to alleviate the scale of such disasters, their frequency seems to be increasing with the number and size of mass events. Yet, systematic studies of panic behaviour, and quantitative theories capable of predicting such crowd dynamics, are rare. Here we show that simulations based on a model of pedestrian behaviour can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms of and preconditions for panic and jamming by incoordination. Our results suggest practical ways of minimising the harmful consequences of such events and the existence of an optimal escape strategy, corresponding to a suitable mixture of individualistic and collective behaviour.Comment: For related information see http://angel.elte.hu/~panic, http://www.helbing.org, http://angel.elte.hu/~fij, and http://angel.elte.hu/~vicse

Cardiorespiratory comorbidity and postoperative complications following esophagectomy: a European multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND: The impact of cardiorespiratory comorbidity on operative outcomes after esophagectomy remains controversial. This study investigated the effect of cardiorespiratory comorbidity on postoperative complications for patients treated for esophageal or gastroesophageal junction cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A European multicenter cohort study from five high-volume esophageal cancer centers including patients treated between 2010 and 2017 was conducted. The effect of cardiorespiratory comorbidity and respiratory function upon postoperative outcomes was assessed. RESULTS: In total 1590 patients from five centers were included; 274 (17.2%) had respiratory comorbidity, and 468 (29.4%) had cardiac comorbidity. Respiratory comorbidity was associated with increased risk of overall postoperative complications, anastomotic leak, pulmonary complications, pneumonia, increased Clavien-Dindo score, and critical care and hospital length of stay. After neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, respiratory comorbidity was associated with increased risk of anastomotic leak [odds ratio (OR) 1.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-3.04], pneumonia (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.10-2.47), and any pulmonary complication (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.04-2.22), an effect which was not observed following neoadjuvant chemotherapy or surgery alone. Cardiac comorbidity was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular and pulmonary complications, respiratory failure, and Clavien-Dindo score ≥ IIIa. Among all patients, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio > 70% was associated with reduced risk of overall postoperative complications, cardiovascular complications, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary complications, and pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that cardiorespiratory comorbidity and impaired pulmonary function are associated with increased risk of postoperative complications after esophagectomy performed in high-volume European centers. Given the observed interaction with neoadjuvant approach, these data indicate a potentially modifiable index of perioperative risk

Loss of convexity of simple closed curves moved by surface diffusion

We rigorously prove that there exists a simple, strictly convex, smooth closed curve which loses convexity but stays simple without developing singularities when it moves by its surface diffusion for a short time

Mechanical activation of vinculin binding to talin locks talin in an unfolded conformation

The force-dependent interaction between talin and vinculin plays a crucial role in the initiation and growth of focal adhesions. Here we use magnetic tweezers to characterise the mechano-sensitive compact N-terminal region of the talin rod, and show that the three helical bundles R1-R3 in this region unfold in three distinct steps consistent with the domains unfolding independently. Mechanical stretching of talin R1-R3 enhances its binding to vinculin and vinculin binding inhibits talin refolding after force is released. Mutations that stabilize R3 identify it as the initial mechano-sensing domain in talin, unfolding at ~5 pN, suggesting that 5 pN is the force threshold for vinculin binding and adhesion progression

Target product profiles for protecting against outdoor malaria transmission.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual sprays (IRS) have decimated malaria transmission by killing indoor-feeding mosquitoes. However, complete elimination of malaria transmission with these proven methods is confounded by vectors that evade pesticide contact by feeding outdoors.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud For any assumed level of indoor coverage and personal protective efficacy with insecticidal products, process-explicit malaria transmission models suggest that insecticides that repel mosquitoes will achieve less impact upon transmission than those that kill them outright. Here such models are extended to explore how outdoor use of products containing either contact toxins or spatial repellents might augment or attenuate impact of high indoor coverage of LLINs relying primarily upon contact toxicity.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud LLIN impact could be dramatically enhanced by high coverage with spatial repellents conferring near-complete personal protection, but only if combined indoor use of both measures can be avoided where vectors persist that prefer feeding indoors upon humans. While very high levels of coverage and efficacy will be required for spatial repellents to substantially augment the impact of LLINs or IRS, these ambitious targets may well be at least as practically achievable as the lower requirements for equivalent impact using contact insecticides.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS\ud \ud Vapour-phase repellents may be more acceptable, practical and effective than contact insecticides for preventing outdoor malaria transmission because they need not be applied to skin or clothing and may protect multiple occupants of spaces outside of treatable structures such as nets or houses

Cancer symptom awareness and barriers to symptomatic presentation in England – Are we clear on cancer?

Background: Low cancer awareness may contribute to delayed diagnosis and poor cancer survival. We aimed to quantify socio-demographic differences in cancer symptom awareness and barriers to symptomatic presentation in the English population. Methods: Using a uniquely large data set (n=49?270), we examined the association of cancer symptom awareness and barriers to presentation with age, gender, marital status and socio-economic position (SEP), using logistic regression models to control for confounders. Results: The youngest and oldest, the single and participants with the lowest SEP recognised the fewest cancer symptoms, and reported most barriers to presentation. Recognition of nine common cancer symptoms was significantly lower, and embarrassment, fear and difficulties in arranging transport to the doctor’s surgery were significantly more common in participants living in the most deprived areas than in the most affluent areas. Women were significantly more likely than men to both recognise common cancer symptoms and to report barriers. Women were much more likely compared with men to report that fear would put them off from going to the doctor. Conclusions: Large and robust socio-demographic differences in recognition of some cancer symptoms, and perception of some barriers to presentation, highlight the need for targeted campaigns to encourage early presentation and improve cancer outcomes

Aging enhances serum cytokine response but not task-induced grip strength declines in a rat model of work-related musculoskeletal disorders

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We previously reported early tissue injury, increased serum and tissue inflammatory cytokines and decreased grip in young rats performing a moderate demand repetitive task. The tissue cytokine response was transient, the serum response and decreased grip were still evident by 8 weeks. Thus, here, we examined their levels at 12 weeks in young rats. Since aging is known to enhance serum cytokine levels, we also examined aged rats.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Aged and young rats, 14 mo and 2.5 mo of age at onset, respectfully, were trained 15 min/day for 4 weeks, and then performed a high repetition, low force (HRLF) reaching and grasping task for 2 hours/day, for 12 weeks. Serum was assayed for 6 cytokines: IL-1alpha, IL-6, IFN-gamma, TNF-alpha, MIP2, IL-10. Grip strength was assayed, since we have previously shown an inverse correlation between grip strength and serum inflammatory cytokines. Results were compared to naïve (grip), and normal, food-restricted and trained-only controls.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Serum cytokines were higher overall in aged than young rats, with increases in IL-1alpha, IFN-gamma and IL-6 in aged Trained and 12-week HRLF rats, compared to young Trained and HRLF rats (p < 0.05 and p < 0.001, respectively, each). IL-6 was also increased in aged 12-week HRLF versus aged normal controls (p < 0.05). Serum IFN-gamma and MIP2 levels were also increased in young 6-week HRLF rats, but no cytokines were above baseline levels in young 12-week HRLF rats. Grip strength declined in both young and aged 12-week HRLF rats, compared to naïve and normal controls (p < 0.05 each), but these declines correlated only with IL-6 levels in aged rats (r = -0.39).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Aging enhanced a serum cytokine response in general, a response that was even greater with repetitive task performance. Grip strength was adversely affected by task performance in both age groups, but was apparently influenced by factors other than serum cytokine levels in young rats.</p

Pedestrian, Crowd, and Evacuation Dynamics

This contribution describes efforts to model the behavior of individual pedestrians and their interactions in crowds, which generate certain kinds of self-organized patterns of motion. Moreover, this article focusses on the dynamics of crowds in panic or evacuation situations, methods to optimize building designs for egress, and factors potentially causing the breakdown of orderly motion.Comment: This is a review paper. For related work see http://www.soms.ethz.c

Assessment of low-dose cisplatin as a model of nausea and emesis in beagle dogs, potential for repeated administration

Cisplatin is a highly emetogenic cancer chemotherapy agent, which is often used to induce nausea and emesis in animal models. The cytotoxic properties of cisplatin also cause adverse events that negatively impact on animal welfare preventing repeated administration of cisplatin. In this study, we assessed whether a low (subclinical) dose of cisplatin could be utilized as a model of nausea and emesis in the dog while decreasing the severity of adverse events to allow repeated administration. The emetic, nausea-like behavior and potential biomarker response to both the clinical dose (70 mg/m2) and low dose (15 mg/m2) of cisplatin was assessed. Plasma creatinine concentrations and granulocyte counts were used to assess adverse effects on the kidneys and bone marrow, respectively. Nausea-like behavior and emesis was induced by both doses of cisplatin, but the latency to onset was greater in the low-dose group. No significant change in plasma creatinine was detected for either dose groups. Granulocytes were significantly reduced compared with baseline (P = 0.000) following the clinical, but not the low-dose cisplatin group. Tolerability of repeated administration was assessed with 4 administrations of an 18 mg/m2 dose cisplatin. Plasma creatinine did not change significantly. Cumulative effects on the granulocytes occurred, they were significantly decreased (P = 0.03) from baseline at 3 weeks following cisplatin for the 4th administration only. Our results suggest that subclinical doses (15 and 18 mg/m2) of cisplatin induce nausea-like behavior and emesis but have reduced adverse effects compared with the clinical dose allowing for repeated administration in crossover studies