Food-web structure in relation to environmental gradients and predator-prey ratios in tank-bromeliad ecosystems

Little is known of how linkage patterns between species change along environmental gradients. The small, spatially discrete food webs inhabiting tank-bromeliads provide an excellent opportunity to analyse patterns of community diversity and food-web topology (connectance, linkage density, nestedness) in relation to key environmental variables (habitat size, detrital resource, incident radiation) and predators: prey ratios. We sampled 365 bromeliads in a wide range of understorey environments in French Guiana and used gut contents of invertebrates to draw the corresponding 365 connectance webs. At the bromeliad scale, habitat size (water volume) determined the number of species that constitute food-web nodes, the proportion of predators, and food-web topology. The number of species as well as the proportion of predators within bromeliads declined from open to forested habitats, where the volume of water collected by bromeliads was generally lower because of rainfall interception by the canopy. A core group of microorganisms and generalist detritivores remained relatively constant across environments. This suggests that (i) a highly-connected core ensures food-web stability and key ecosystem functions across environments, and (ii) larger deviations in food-web structures can be expected following disturbance if detritivores share traits that determine responses to environmental changes. While linkage density and nestedness were lower in bromeliads in the forest than in open areas, experiments are needed to confirm a trend for lower food-web stability in the understorey of primary forests

The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting

Successfully predicting the future states of systems that are complex, stochastic and potentially chaotic is a major challenge. Model forecasting error (FE) is the usual measure of success; however model predictions provide no insights into the potential for improvement. In short, the realized predictability of a specific model is uninformative about whether the system is inherently predictable or whether the chosen model is a poor match for the system and our observations thereof. Ideally, model proficiency would be judged with respect to the systems’ intrinsic predictability – the highest achievable predictability given the degree to which system dynamics are the result of deterministic v. stochastic processes. Intrinsic predictability may be quantified with permutation entropy (PE), a model‐free, information‐theoretic measure of the complexity of a time series. By means of simulations we show that a correlation exists between estimated PE and FE and show how stochasticity, process error, and chaotic dynamics affect the relationship. This relationship is verified for a dataset of 461 empirical ecological time series. We show how deviations from the expected PE‐FE relationship are related to covariates of data quality and the nonlinearity of ecological dynamics. These results demonstrate a theoretically‐grounded basis for a model‐free evaluation of a system's intrinsic predictability. Identifying the gap between the intrinsic and realized predictability of time series will enable researchers to understand whether forecasting proficiency is limited by the quality and quantity of their data or the ability of the chosen forecasting model to explain the data. Intrinsic predictability also provides a model‐free baseline of forecasting proficiency against which modeling efforts can be evaluated

High Temperature Triggers Latent Variation among Individuals: Oviposition Rate and Probability for Outbreaks

It is anticipated that extreme population events, such as extinctions and outbreaks, will become more frequent as a consequence of climate change. To evaluate the increased probability of such events, it is crucial to understand the mechanisms involved. Variation between individuals in their response to climatic factors is an important consideration, especially if microevolution is expected to change the composition of populations.Here we present data of a willow leaf beetle species, showing high variation among individuals in oviposition rate at a high temperature (20 °C). It is particularly noteworthy that not all individuals responded to changes in temperature; individuals laying few eggs at 20 °C continued to do so when transferred to 12 °C, whereas individuals that laid many eggs at 20 °C reduced their oviposition and laid the same number of eggs as the others when transferred to 12 °C. When transferred back to 20 °C most individuals reverted to their original oviposition rate. Thus, high variation among individuals was only observed at the higher temperature. Using a simple population model and based on regional climate change scenarios we show that the probability of outbreaks increases if there is a realistic increase in the number of warm summers. The probability of outbreaks also increased with increasing heritability of the ability to respond to increased temperature.If climate becomes warmer and there is latent variation among individuals in their temperature response, the probability for outbreaks may increase. However, the likelihood for microevolution to play a role may be low. This conclusion is based on the fact that it has been difficult to show that microevolution affect the probability for extinctions. Our results highlight the urge for cautiousness when predicting the future concerning probabilities for extreme population events

Effects of acute and chronic temperature changes on the functional responses of the dogfish Scyliorhinus canicula (Linnaeus, 1758) towards amphipod prey Echinogammarus marinus (Leach, 1815)

Predation is a strong driver of population dynamics and community structure and it is essential to reliably quantify and predict predation impacts on prey populations in a changing thermal landscape. Here, we used comparative functional response analyses to assess how predator-prey interactions between dogfish and invertebrate prey change under different warming scenarios. The Functional Response Type, attack rate, handling time and maximum feeding rate estimates were calculated for Scyliorhinus canicula preying upon Echinogammarus marinus under temperatures of 11.3 °C and 16.3 °C, which represent both the potential daily variation and predicted higher summer temperatures within Strangford Lough, N. Ireland. A two x two design of “Predator Acclimated”, “Prey Acclimated”, “Both Acclimated”, and “Both Unacclimated” was implemented to test functional responses to temperature rise. Attack rate was higher at 11.3 °C than at 16.3 °C, but handling time was lower and maximum feeding rates were higher at 16.3 °C. Non-acclimated predators had similar maximum feeding rate towards non-acclimated and acclimated prey, whereas acclimated predators had significantly higher maximum feeding rates towards acclimated prey as compared to non-acclimated prey. Results suggests that the predator attack rate is decreased by increasing temperature but when both predator and prey are acclimated the shorter handling times considerably increase predator impact. The functional response of the fish changed from Type II to Type III with an increase in temperature, except when only the prey were acclimated. This change from population destabilizing Type II to more stabilizing Type III could confer protection to prey at low densities but increase the maximum feeding rate by Scyliorhinus canicula in the future. However, predator movement between different thermal regimes may maintain a Type II response, albeit with a lower maximum feeding rate. This has implications for the way the increasing population Scyliorhinus canicula in the Irish Sea may exploit valuable fisheries stocks in the future

Predicting predatory impact of juvenile invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans) on a crustacean prey using functional response analysis: effects of temperature, habitat complexity and light regimes

The ecological implications of biotic interactions, such as predator-prey relationships, are often context-dependent. Comparative functional responses analysis can be used under different abiotic contexts to improve understanding and prediction of the ecological impact of invasive species. Pterois volitans (Lionfish) [Linnaeus 1758] is an established invasive species in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, with a more recent invasion into the Mediterranean. Lionfish are generalist predators that impact a wide range of commercial and non-commercial species. Functional response analysis was employed to quantify interaction strength between lionfish and a generic prey species, the shrimp (Paleomonetes varians) [Leach 1814], under the contexts of differing temperature, habitat complexity and light wavelength. Lionfish have prey population destabilising Type II functional responses under all contexts examined. Significantly more prey were consumed at 26 °C than at 22 °C. Habitat complexity did not significantly alter the functional response parameters. Significantly more prey were consumed under white light and blue light than under red light. Attack rate was significantly higher under white light than under blue or red light. Light wavelength did not significantly change handling times. The impacts on prey populations through feeding rates may increase with concomitant temperature increase. As attack rates are very high at low habitat complexity this may elucidate the cause of high impact upon degraded reef ecosystems with low-density prey populations, although there was little protection conferred through habitat complexity. Only red light (i.e. dark) afforded any reduction in predation pressure. Management initiatives should account for these environmental factors when planning mitigation and prevention strategies