Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon 'dieback'.

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from The Royal Society via http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.0028Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land surface scheme is investigated. We analyse how the modelled vegetation cover in Amazonia responds to (i) uncertainty in the parameters specified in the atmosphere component of HadCM3 and their associated influence on predicted surface climate. We then enhance the land surface description and (ii) implement a multilayer canopy light interception model and compare with the simple 'big-leaf' approach used in the original simulations. Finally, (iii) we investigate the effect of changing the method of simulating vegetation dynamics from an area-based model (TRIFFID) to a more complex size- and age-structured approximation of an individual-based model (ecosystem demography). We find that the loss of Amazonian rainforest is robust across the climate uncertainty explored by perturbed physics simulations covering a wide range of global climate sensitivity. The introduction of the refined light interception model leads to an increase in simulated gross plant carbon uptake for the present day, but, with altered respiration, the net effect is a decrease in net primary productivity. However, this does not significantly affect the carbon loss from vegetation and soil as a consequence of future simulated depletion in soil moisture; the Amazon forest is still lost. The introduction of the more sophisticated dynamic vegetation model reduces but does not halt the rate of forest dieback. The potential for human-induced climate change to trigger the loss of Amazon rainforest appears robust within the context of the uncertainties explored in this paper. Some further uncertainties should be explored, particularly with respect to the representation of rooting depth

Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations

Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall1, European summer precipitation2, Atlantic hurricanes3 and variations in global temperatures4. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content5. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source6. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres—the intergyre region7. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining8 and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures4, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States9, 10

A cross-sectional study examining predictors of visit frequency to local green space and the impact this has on physical activity levels

Background Lack of physical activity (PA) is a growing public health concern. There is a growing body of literature that suggests a positive relationship may exist between the amount of local green space near one?s home and PA levels. For instance, park proximity has been shown to predict PA levels amongst certain populations. However, there is little evidence for the role of relatedness towards nature and perceptions of local green space on this relationship. The aim of this study was to examine, in a National UK sample, whether subjective indices associated with local green space were better predictors of visit frequency to local green space and PA levels compared to objectively measured quantity of local green space. Methods A cross-sectional survey was designed. From a random sample, 2079 working age adults responded to an online survey in September 2011. Demographics, self-reported PA, objective measures of the local environment (including local green space, road coverage, and environmental deprivation), were assessed in conjunction with perceptions of local green space and nature relatedness. Quantity of local green space was assessed by cross-referencing respondents? home postcodes with general land use databases. Regression models were conducted to assess which of our independent variables best predicted visit frequency to local green space and/or meeting PA guidelines. In addition, an ordinal regression was run to examine the relationship between visit frequency to local green space and the likelihood of meeting national PA guidelines. Results Nature relatedness was the strongest predictor for both visit frequency to local green space and meeting PA guidelines. Results show that perceived quality is a better predictor of visit frequency to local green space than objective quantity of local green space. The odds of achieving the recommended amount of PA was over four times greater for people who visited local green space once per week compared to never going (OR 4.151; 95 % CI, 2.40 to 7.17). Conclusions These results suggest that perceptions of local green space and nature relatedness play an important role in the relationship between local green space and PA. Considering the known health benefits of PA, our results are potentially important for public health interventions, policy making and environmental planning

21st Century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions

Tropical carbon emissions are largely derived from direct forest clearing processes. Yet, emissions from drought-induced forest fires are, usually, not included in national-level carbon emission inventories. Here we examine Brazilian Amazon drought impacts on fire incidence and associated forest fire carbon emissions over the period 2003–2015. We show that despite a 76% decline in deforestation rates over the past 13 years, fire incidence increased by 36% during the 2015 drought compared to the preceding 12 years. The 2015 drought had the largest ever ratio of active fire counts to deforestation, with active fires occurring over an area of 799,293 km2. Gross emissions from forest fires (989 ± 504 Tg CO2 year−1) alone are more than half as great as those from old-growth forest deforestation during drought years. We conclude that carbon emission inventories intended for accounting and developing policies need to take account of substantial forest fire emissions not associated to the deforestation process

Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years

The North Atlantic experiences climate variability on multidecadal scales, which is sometimes referred to as Atlantic multidecadal variability. However, the relative contributions of external forcing such as changes in solar irradiance or volcanic activity and internal dynamics to these variations are unclear. Here we provide evidence for persistent summer Atlantic multidecadal variability from AD 800 to 2010 using a network of annually resolved terrestrial proxy records from the circum-North Atlantic region. We find that large volcanic eruptions and solar irradiance minima induce cool phases of Atlantic multidecadal variability and collectively explain about 30% of the variance in the reconstruction on timescales greater than 30 years. We are then able to isolate the internally generated component of Atlantic multidecadal variability, which we define as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. We find that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is the largest contributor to Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past 1,200 years. We also identify coherence between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations, leading us to conclude that the apparent link between Atlantic multidecadal variability and regional to hemispheric climate does not arise solely from a common response to external drivers, and may instead reflect dynamic processes

The possible role of local air pollution in climate change in West Africa

The climate of West Africa is characterized by a sensitive monsoon system that is associated with marked natural precipitation variability. This region has been and is projected to be subject to substantial global and regional-scale changes including greenhouse-gas-induced warming and sea-level rise, land-use and land-cover change, and substantial biomass burning. We argue that more attention should be paid to rapidly increasing air pollution over the explosively growing cities of West Africa, as experiences from other regions suggest that this can alter regional climate through the influences of aerosols on clouds and radiation, and will also affect human health and food security. We need better observations and models to quantify the magnitude and characteristics of these impacts

The disruption of proteostasis in neurodegenerative diseases

Cells count on surveillance systems to monitor and protect the cellular proteome which, besides being highly heterogeneous, is constantly being challenged by intrinsic and environmental factors. In this context, the proteostasis network (PN) is essential to achieve a stable and functional proteome. Disruption of the PN is associated with aging and can lead to and/or potentiate the occurrence of many neurodegenerative diseases (ND). This not only emphasizes the importance of the PN in health span and aging but also how its modulation can be a potential target for intervention and treatment of human diseases.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Collective Dynamics of Gene Expression in Cell Populations

The phenotypic state of the cell is commonly thought to be determined by the set of expressed genes. However, given the apparent complexity of genetic networks, it remains open what processes stabilize a particular phenotypic state. Moreover, it is not clear how unique is the mapping between the vector of expressed genes and the cell's phenotypic state. To gain insight on these issues, we study here the expression dynamics of metabolically essential genes in twin cell populations. We show that two yeast cell populations derived from a single steady-state mother population and exhibiting a similar growth phenotype in response to an environmental challenge, displayed diverse expression patterns of essential genes. The observed diversity in the mean expression between populations could not result from stochastic cell-to-cell variability, which would be averaged out in our large cell populations. Remarkably, within a population, sets of expressed genes exhibited coherent dynamics over many generations. Thus, the emerging gene expression patterns resulted from collective population dynamics. It suggests that in a wide range of biological contexts, gene expression reflects a self-organization process coupled to population-environment dynamics

SpeB of Streptococcus pyogenes Differentially Modulates Antibacterial and Receptor Activating Properties of Human Chemokines

BACKGROUND: CXC chemokines are induced by inflammatory stimuli in epithelial cells and some, like MIG/CXCL9, IP-10/CXCL10 and I-TAC/CXCL11, are antibacterial for Streptococcus pyogenes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: SpeB from S. pyogenes degrades a wide range of chemokines (i.e. IP10/CXCL10, I-TAC/CXCL11, PF4/CXCL4, GROalpha/CXCL1, GRObeta/CXCL2, GROgamma/CXCL3, ENA78/CXCL5, GCP-2/CXCL6, NAP-2/CXCL7, SDF-1/CXCL12, BCA-1/CXCL13, BRAK/CXCL14, SRPSOX/CXCL16, MIP-3alpha/CCL20, Lymphotactin/XCL1, and Fractalkine/CX3CL1), has no activity on IL-8/CXCL8 and RANTES/CCL5, partly degrades SRPSOX/CXCL16 and MIP-3alpha/CCL20, and releases a 6 kDa CXCL9 fragment. CXCL10 and CXCL11 loose receptor activating and antibacterial activities, while the CXCL9 fragment does not activate the receptor CXCR3 but retains its antibacterial activity. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: SpeB destroys most of the signaling and antibacterial properties of chemokines expressed by an inflamed epithelium. The exception is CXCL9 that preserves its antibacterial activity after hydrolysis, emphasizing its role as a major antimicrobial on inflamed epithelium