High rate of extrapair paternity in a human population demonstrates diversity in human reproductive strategies.

Among nonhuman species, social monogamy is rarely accompanied by complete fidelity. Evolutionary theory predicts that the rate of extrapair paternity (EPP) should vary according to socioecological conditions. In humans, however, geneticists contend that EPP is negligible and relatively invariable. This conclusion is based on a limited set of studies, almost all of which describe European-descent groups. Using a novel, double-blind method designed in collaboration with a community of Himba pastoralists, we find that the rate of EPP in this population is 48%, with 70% of couples having at least one EPP child. Both men and women were very accurate at detecting cases of EPP. These data suggest that the range of variation in EPP across human populations is substantially greater than previously thought. We further show that a high rate of EPP can be accompanied by high paternity confidence, which highlights the importance of disaggregating EPP from the notion of "cuckoldry.

Issues potentially affecting quality of life arising from long-term medicines use: a qualitative study

Background Polypharmacy is increasing and managing large number of medicines may create a burden for patients. Many patients have negative views of medicines and their use can adversely affect quality of life. No studies have specifically explored the impact of general long-term medicines use on quality of life. Objective To determine the issues which patients taking long-term medicines consider affect their day-to-day lives, including quality of life. Setting Four primary care general practices in North West England Methods Face-to-face interviews with adults living at home, prescribed four or more regular medicines for at least 1 year. Interviewees were identified from primary care medical records and purposively selected to ensure different types of medicines use. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. Results Twenty-one interviews were conducted and analysed. Patients used an average of 7.8 medicines, 51 % were preventive, 40 % for symptom relief and 9 % treatment. Eight themes emerged: relationships with health professionals, practicalities, information, efficacy, side effects, attitudes, impact and control. Ability to discuss medicines with health professionals varied and many views were coloured by negative experiences, mainly with doctors. All interviewees had developed routines for using multiple medicines, some requiring considerable effort. Few felt able to exert control over medicines routines specified by health professionals. Over half sought additional information about medicines whereas others avoided this, trusting in doctors to guide their medicines use. Patients recognised their inability to assess efficacy for many medicines, notably those used for prophylaxis. All were concerned about possible side effects and some had poor experiences of discussing concerns with doctors. Medicines led to restrictions on social activities and personal life to the extent that, for some, life can revolve around medicines. Conclusion There is a multiplicity and complexity of issues surrounding medicines use, which impact on day-to-day lives for patients with long-term conditions. While most patients adapt to long-term medicines use, others did so at some cost to their quality of life

Aseptic meningitis in Germany associated with echovirus type 13

BACKGROUND: Echoviruses are the commonest cause of aseptic meningitis. Echovirus type 13 which has not been isolated in Germany over a long period of time was the predominant enterovirus serotype associated with different local outbreaks of aseptic meningitis in Germany in 2000. METHODS: Virus isolation was performed from cerebrospinal fluid and stools. In order to study the genetic relationship of echovirus type 13 isolates, sequence analysis of a part of VP1 (~300 nt) was carried out. Isolates from different geographic regions were compared to each other as well as to elder viruses (prototype strain from 1953, four isolates from 1965–1986). RESULTS: Overall, 55 isolates of echovirus type 13 were obtained from different parts of Germany. It was shown that the new isolated strains have a very high degree of homology on the nucleotide level (> 98%)) but differ significantly from the old strains (76–85%). CONCLUSIONS: a) Rare enterovirus serotypes can cause serious illness. b) The molecular drift has also been shown for other enterovirus serotypes

Design of Experiments for Screening

The aim of this paper is to review methods of designing screening experiments, ranging from designs originally developed for physical experiments to those especially tailored to experiments on numerical models. The strengths and weaknesses of the various designs for screening variables in numerical models are discussed. First, classes of factorial designs for experiments to estimate main effects and interactions through a linear statistical model are described, specifically regular and nonregular fractional factorial designs, supersaturated designs and systematic fractional replicate designs. Generic issues of aliasing, bias and cancellation of factorial effects are discussed. Second, group screening experiments are considered including factorial group screening and sequential bifurcation. Third, random sampling plans are discussed including Latin hypercube sampling and sampling plans to estimate elementary effects. Fourth, a variety of modelling methods commonly employed with screening designs are briefly described. Finally, a novel study demonstrates six screening methods on two frequently-used exemplars, and their performances are compared

Extending basic principles of measurement models to the design and validation of Patient Reported Outcomes

A recently published article by the Scientific Advisory Committee of the Medical Outcomes Trust presents guidelines for selecting and evaluating health status and health-related quality of life measures used in health outcomes research. In their article, they propose a number of validation and performance criteria with which to evaluate such self-report measures. We provide an alternate, yet complementary, perspective by extending the types of measurement models which are available to the instrument designer. During psychometric development or selection of a Patient Reported Outcome measure it is necessary to determine which, of the five types of measurement models, the measure is based on; 1) a Multiple Effect Indicator model, 2) a Multiple Cause Indicator model, 3) a Single Item Effect Indicator model, 4) a Single Item Cause Indicator model, or 5) a Mixed Multiple Indicator model. Specification of the measurement model has a major influence on decisions about item and scale design, the appropriate application of statistical validation methods, and the suitability of the resulting measure for a particular use in clinical and population-based outcomes research activities

Clinical risk factors of colorectal cancer in patients with serrated polyposis syndrome: a multicentre cohort analysis

OBJECTIVE: Serrated polyposis syndrome (SPS) is accompanied by an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Patients fulfilling the clinical criteria, as defined by the WHO, have a wide variation in CRC risk. We aimed to assess risk factors for CRC in a large cohort of patients with SPS and to evaluate the risk of CRC during surveillance. DESIGN: In this retrospective cohort analysis, all patients with SPS from seven centres in the Netherlands and two in the UK were enrolled. WHO criteria were used to diagnose SPS. Patients who only fulfilled WHO criterion-2, with IBD and/or a known hereditary CRC syndrome were excluded. RESULTS: In total, 434 patients with SPS were included for analysis; 127 (29.3%) were diagnosed with CRC. In a per-patient analysis ≥1 serrated polyp (SP) with dysplasia (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.28 to 3.33), ≥1 advanced adenoma (OR 2.30; 95% CI 1.47 to 3.67) and the fulfilment of both WHO criteria 1 and 3 (OR 1.60; 95% CI 1.04 to 2.51) were associated with CRC, while a history of smoking was inversely associated with CRC (OR 0.36; 95% CI 0.23 to 0.56). Overall, 260 patients underwent surveillance after clearing of all relevant lesions, during which two patients were diagnosed with CRC, corresponding to 1.9 events/1000 person-years surveillance (95% CI 0.3 to 6.4). CONCLUSION: The presence of SPs containing dysplasia, advanced adenomas and/or combined WHO criteria 1 and 3 phenotype is associated with CRC in patients with SPS. Patients with a history of smoking show a lower risk of CRC, possibly due to a different pathogenesis of disease. The risk of developing CRC during surveillance is lower than previously reported in literature, which may reflect a more mature multicentre cohort with less selection bias

Use of mixed methods designs in substance research: a methodological necessity in Nigeria

The utility of mixed methods (qualitative and quantitative) is becoming increasingly accepted in health sciences, but substance studies are yet to substantially benefit from such utilities. While there is a growing number of mixed methods alcohol articles concerning developed countries, developing nations are yet to embrace this method. In the Nigerian context, the importance of mixed methods research is yet to be acknowledged. This article therefore, draws on alcohol studies to argue that mixed methods designs will better equip scholars to understand, explore, describe and explain why alcohol consumption and its related problems are increasing in Nigeria. It argues that as motives for consuming alcohol in contemporary Nigeria are multiple, complex and evolving, mixed method approaches that provide multiple pathways for proffering solutions to problems should be embraced

KRILLBASE: a circumpolar database of Antarctic krill and salp numerical densities, 1926–2016

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and salps are major macroplankton contributors to Southern Ocean food webs and krill are also fished commercially. Managing this fishery sustainably, against a backdrop of rapid regional climate change, requires information on distribution and time trends. Many data on the abundance of both taxa have been obtained from net sampling surveys since 1926, but much of this is stored in national archives, sometimes only in notebooks. In order to make these important data accessible we have collated available abundance data (numerical density, no.

Progression to microalbuminuria in type 1 diabetes: development and validation of a prediction rule

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Microalbuminuria is common in type 1 diabetes and is associated with an increased risk of renal and cardiovascular disease. We aimed to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule that estimates the absolute risk of microalbuminuria. METHODS: Data from the European Diabetes Prospective Complications Study (n = 1115) were used to develop the prediction rule (development set). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between potential predictors and progression to microalbuminuria within 7 years. The performance of the prediction rule was assessed with calibration and discrimination (concordance statistic [c-statistic]) measures. The rule was validated in three other diabetes studies (Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications [EDC] study, Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy [FinnDiane] study and Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes [CACTI] study). RESULTS: Of patients in the development set, 13% were microalbuminuric after 7 years. Glycosylated haemoglobin, AER, WHR, BMI and ever smoking were found to be the most important predictors. A high-risk group (n = 87 [8%]) was identified with a risk of progression to microalbuminuria of 32%. Predictions showed reasonable discriminative ability, with c-statistic of 0.71. The rule showed good calibration and discrimination in EDC, FinnDiane and CACTI (c-statistic 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79, respectively). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We developed and validated a clinical prediction rule that uses relatively easily obtainable patient characteristics to predict microalbuminuria in patients with type 1 diabetes. This rule can help clinicians to decide on more frequent check-ups for patients at high risk of microalbuminuria in order to prevent long-term chronic complication