On Universality in Human Correspondence Activity

Identifying and modeling patterns of human activity has important ramifications in applications ranging from predicting disease spread to optimizing resource allocation. Because of its relevance and availability, written correspondence provides a powerful proxy for studying human activity. One school of thought is that human correspondence is driven by responses to received correspondence, a view that requires distinct response mechanism to explain e-mail and letter correspondence observations. Here, we demonstrate that, like e-mail correspondence, the letter correspondence patterns of 16 writers, performers, politicians, and scientists are well-described by the circadian cycle, task repetition and changing communication needs. We confirm the universality of these mechanisms by properly rescaling letter and e-mail correspondence statistics to reveal their underlying similarity.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Weblog patterns and human dynamics with decreasing interest

Weblog is the fourth way of network exchange after Email, BBS and MSN. Most bloggers begin to write blogs with great interest, and then their interests gradually achieve a balance with the passage of time. In order to describe the phenomenon that people's interest in something gradually decreases until it reaches a balance, we first propose the model that describes the attenuation of interest and reflects the fact that people's interest becomes more stable after a long time. We give a rigorous analysis on this model by non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Our analysis indicates that the interval distribution of arrival-time is a mixed distribution with exponential and power-law feature, that is, it is a power law with an exponential cutoff. Second, we collect blogs in ScienceNet.cn and carry on empirical studies on the interarrival time distribution. The empirical results agree well with the analytical result, obeying a special power law with the exponential cutoff, that is, a special kind of Gamma distribution. These empirical results verify the model, providing an evidence for a new class of phenomena in human dynamics. In human dynamics there are other distributions, besides power-law distributions. These findings demonstrate the variety of human behavior dynamics.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure

Timing interactions in social simulations: The voter model

The recent availability of huge high resolution datasets on human activities has revealed the heavy-tailed nature of the interevent time distributions. In social simulations of interacting agents the standard approach has been to use Poisson processes to update the state of the agents, which gives rise to very homogeneous activity patterns with a well defined characteristic interevent time. As a paradigmatic opinion model we investigate the voter model and review the standard update rules and propose two new update rules which are able to account for heterogeneous activity patterns. For the new update rules each node gets updated with a probability that depends on the time since the last event of the node, where an event can be an update attempt (exogenous update) or a change of state (endogenous update). We find that both update rules can give rise to power law interevent time distributions, although the endogenous one more robustly. Apart from that for the exogenous update rule and the standard update rules the voter model does not reach consensus in the infinite size limit, while for the endogenous update there exist a coarsening process that drives the system toward consensus configurations.Comment: Book Chapter, 23 pages, 9 figures, 5 table

Statistical mixing and aggregation in Feller diffusion

We consider Feller mean-reverting square-root diffusion, which has been applied to model a wide variety of processes with linearly state-dependent diffusion, such as stochastic volatility and interest rates in finance, and neuronal and populations dynamics in natural sciences. We focus on the statistical mixing (or superstatistical) process in which the parameter related to the mean value can fluctuate - a plausible mechanism for the emergence of heavy-tailed distributions. We obtain analytical results for the associated probability density function (both stationary and time dependent), its correlation structure and aggregation properties. Our results are applied to explain the statistics of stock traded volume at different aggregation scales.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures. To be published in Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experimen

Early risk factors for adolescent antisocial behaviour: an Australian longitudinal study

Objective: This investigation utilizes data from an Australian longitudinal study to identify early risk factors for adolescent antisocial behaviour. Method: Analyses are based on data from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy, an on-going longitudinal investigation of women’s and children’s health and development involving over 8000 participants. Five types of risk factors (child characteristics, perinatal factors, maternal/familial characteristics, maternal pre- and post-natal substance use and parenting practices) were included in analyses and were based on maternal reports, child assessments and medical records. Adolescent antisocial behaviour was measured when children were 14 years old, using the delinquency subscale of the Child Behaviour Checklist. Results: Based on a series of logistic regression models, significant risk factors for adolescent antisocial behaviour included children’s prior problem behaviour (i.e. aggression and attention/restlessness problems at age 5 years) and marital instability, which doubled or tripled the odds of antisocial behaviour. Perinatal factors, maternal substance use, and parenting practices were relatively poor predictors of antisocial behaviour. Conclusions: Few studies have assessed early predictors of antisocial behaviour in Australia and the current results can be used to inform prevention programs that target risk factors likely to lead to problem outcomes for Australian youth

The aggregation of cytochrome C may be linked to its flexibility during refolding

Large-scale expression of biopharmaceutical proteins in cellular hosts results in production of large insoluble mass aggregates. In order to generate functional product, these aggregates require further processing through refolding with denaturant, a process in itself that can result in aggregation. Using a model folding protein, cytochrome C, we show how an increase in final denaturant concentration decreases the propensity of the protein to aggregate during refolding. Using polarised fluorescence anisotropy, we show how reduced levels of aggregation can be achieved by increasing the period of time the protein remains flexible during refolding, mediated through dilution ratios. This highlights the relationship between the flexibility of a protein and its propensity to aggregate. We attribute this behaviour to the preferential urea-residue interaction, over self-association between molecules

The role of mentorship in protege performance

The role of mentorship on protege performance is a matter of importance to academic, business, and governmental organizations. While the benefits of mentorship for proteges, mentors and their organizations are apparent, the extent to which proteges mimic their mentors' career choices and acquire their mentorship skills is unclear. Here, we investigate one aspect of mentor emulation by studying mentorship fecundity---the number of proteges a mentor trains---with data from the Mathematics Genealogy Project, which tracks the mentorship record of thousands of mathematicians over several centuries. We demonstrate that fecundity among academic mathematicians is correlated with other measures of academic success. We also find that the average fecundity of mentors remains stable over 60 years of recorded mentorship. We further uncover three significant correlations in mentorship fecundity. First, mentors with small mentorship fecundity train proteges that go on to have a 37% larger than expected mentorship fecundity. Second, in the first third of their career, mentors with large fecundity train proteges that go on to have a 29% larger than expected fecundity. Finally, in the last third of their career, mentors with large fecundity train proteges that go on to have a 31% smaller than expected fecundity.Comment: 23 pages double-spaced, 4 figure

A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2{\deg}C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2{\deg}C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2{\deg}C.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Niche as a determinant of word fate in online groups

Patterns of word use both reflect and influence a myriad of human activities and interactions. Like other entities that are reproduced and evolve, words rise or decline depending upon a complex interplay between {their intrinsic properties and the environments in which they function}. Using Internet discussion communities as model systems, we define the concept of a word niche as the relationship between the word and the characteristic features of the environments in which it is used. We develop a method to quantify two important aspects of the size of the word niche: the range of individuals using the word and the range of topics it is used to discuss. Controlling for word frequency, we show that these aspects of the word niche are strong determinants of changes in word frequency. Previous studies have already indicated that word frequency itself is a correlate of word success at historical time scales. Our analysis of changes in word frequencies over time reveals that the relative sizes of word niches are far more important than word frequencies in the dynamics of the entire vocabulary at shorter time scales, as the language adapts to new concepts and social groupings. We also distinguish endogenous versus exogenous factors as additional contributors to the fates of words, and demonstrate the force of this distinction in the rise of novel words. Our results indicate that short-term nonstationarity in word statistics is strongly driven by individual proclivities, including inclinations to provide novel information and to project a distinctive social identity.Comment: Supporting Information is available here: http://www.plosone.org/article/fetchSingleRepresentation.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0019009.s00