Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection

Cellular and Molecular Mechanisms Underlying the Strong Neonatal IL-12 Response of Lamb Mesenteric Lymph Node Cells to R-848

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Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems

International audienceRegional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. The approaches to downscaled experiment design and lessons learned from the MEECE project are also discussed

Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems

Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model

Molucular gene profiling of Clostridium botulinum group III and their detection in naturally contaminated samples originating from various European countries

We report the development of real-time PCR assays for genotyping Clostridium botulinum group III targeting the newly defined C. novyi sensu lato group; the nontoxic nonhemagglutinin (NTNH)-encoding gene ntnh; the botulinum neurotoxin (BoNT)-encoding genes bont/C, bont/C/D, bont/D, and bont/D/C; and the flagellin (fliC) gene. The genetic diversity of fliC among C. botulinum group III strains resulted in the definition of five major subgroups named fliC-I to fliC-V. Investigation of fliC subtypes in 560 samples, with various European origins, showed that fliC-I was predominant and found exclusively in samples contaminated by C. botulinum type C/D, fliC-II was rarely detected, no sample was recorded as fliC-III or fliC-V, and only C. botulinum type D/C samples tested positive for fliC-IV. The lack of genetic diversity of the flagellin gene of C. botulinum type C/D would support a clonal spread of type C/D strains in different geographical areas. fliC-I to fliC-III are genetically related (87% to 92% sequence identity), whereas fliC-IV from C. botulinum type D/C is more genetically distant from the other fliC types (with only 50% sequence identity). These findings suggest fliC-I to fliC-III have evolved in a common environment and support a different genetic evolution for fliC-IV. A combination of the C. novyi sensu lato, ntnh, bont, and fliC PCR assays developed in this study allowed better characterization of C. botulinum group III and showed the group to be less genetically diverse than C. botulinum groups I and II, supporting a slow genetic evolution of the strains belonging to C. botulinum group III