Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection

Cellular and Molecular Mechanisms Underlying the Strong Neonatal IL-12 Response of Lamb Mesenteric Lymph Node Cells to R-848

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Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems

International audienceRegional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. The approaches to downscaled experiment design and lessons learned from the MEECE project are also discussed

Sources of the Levantine Intermediate Water in winter 2019

Climatic changes and interannual variability in the Mediterranean overturning circulation are crucially linked to dense water formation in the Levantine Sea, namely the Levantine Intermediate Water whose formation zone, comprising multiple and intermittent sources, extends over fluctuating pathways. To probe into the variability of this water formation and spreading, a unique dataset was collected during the winter of 2019 in the western Levantine Sea, via oceanographic cruises, profiling floats and a glider, at a spatio-temporal distribution suited to resolve mesoscale circulation features and intermittent convection events. This study highlights the competition between two source regions, the Cretan Sea and the Rhodes Cyclonic Gyre, to supply the Mediterranean overturning circulation in Levantine Intermediate Water. The Cretan source was estimated as the most abundant, supported by increasingly saltier water masses coming from the Levantine Sea under the pumping effect of a water deficit caused by strong western outflow towards the Ionian Sea. Key Points Descriptive oceanography of the Levantine Intermediate Water formation zone using an in-situ multiplatform approach Competition between two source regions to supply the Mediterranean overturning circulation in Levantine Intermediate Water The Cretan Sea is the most abundant source, supported by increasingly saltier waters coming from the Levantine Sea Plain Language Summary The Mediterranean overturning circulation is a conveyor belt transporting salt from its easternmost areas towards the North Atlantic Ocean. To explore how the formation of dense and salty waters called the Levantine Intermediate Water fits into this circulation, the western Levantine Sea was investigated during the winter of 2019 via cruise surveys and an array of autonomous sensors. This study highlights the competition between two source regions, the southern Aegean Sea and the northwestern Levantine Sea, to supply the Mediterranean overturning circulation in Levantine Intermediate Water. In the period under study, the first region was estimated as the most abundant source. This source was supported by increasingly saltier water masses coming from the Levantine Sea, under the pumping effect of a water draught in the Aegean Sea. These observations help to nuance the complex picture of Levantine circulation patterns which are subject to large variability