Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing

The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on an accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information provides valuable input to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood-prone areas has been higher than in non-flood-prone areas. We also find that property values in flood-prone areas are lower than those in non-flood-prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood-prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing

Effects of breeding habitat and field margins on the reproductive performance of Skylarks (Alauda arvensis) on intensive farmland

Field margin management is a common measure employed in Europe to support farmland bird populations. In this study we found and analysed 237 nests of the Skylark Alauda arvensis in the Netherlands over a period of 6 years to determine the effects of arable field margins and breeding crop on nest-level reproductive success. Additionally, the effect of field margins on predation was investigated and food availability in crops and field margins was compared. Neither clutch size, nest survival nor nestling body weight were improved by field margin availability, irrespective of the breeding crop used. However, the choice of breeding crop had important effects. Nestling weight was significantly lower in cereals than in grassland and lucerne, corresponding with the low prey densities present in cereals. Nest survival was lowest in grassland due to frequent silage cutting. Predation rates were highest in cereals but were not affected by field margin proximity. The highest reproductive success was achieved in lucerne, which was mown twice a year and retained a suitable height for breeding throughout the breeding season. We conclude that field margins are not sufficient to maintain a Skylark population in this intensively farmed area. The presumably more subtle effects of increased food availability cannot compensate for the high nest failure rates resulting from agricultural operations and predation. In this and similar areas, the provisioning of safe nesting habitat throughout the breeding season is essential to improve breeding performance. Our research suggests that this can be achieved by reducing the frequency of silage cutting on grassland and by increasing the surface area of lucerne.Conservation Biolog

Thermal Particle Creation in Cosmological Spacetimes: A Stochastic Approach

The stochastic method based on the influence functional formalism introduced in an earlier paper to treat particle creation in near-uniformly accelerated detectors and collapsing masses is applied here to treat thermal and near-thermal radiance in certain types of cosmological expansions. It is indicated how the appearance of thermal radiance in different cosmological spacetimes and in the two apparently distinct classes of black hole and cosmological spacetimes can be understood under a unifying conceptual and methodological framework.Comment: 17 pages, revtex (aps, eqsecnum), submitted to PRD, April 199

Inflationary Reheating in Grand Unified Theories

Grand unified theories may display multiply interacting fields with strong coupling dynamics. This poses two new problems: (1) What is the nature of chaotic reheating after inflation, and (2) How is reheating sensitive to the mass spectrum of these theories ? We answer these questions in two interesting limiting cases and demonstrate an increased efficiency of reheating which strongly enhances non-thermal topological defect formation, including monopoles and domain walls. Nevertheless, the large fluctuations may resolve this monopole problem via a modified Dvali-Liu-Vachaspati mechanism in which non-thermal destabilsation of discrete symmetries occurs at reheating.Comment: 4 pages, 5 ps figures - 1 colour, Revtex. Further (colour & 3-D) figures available from http://www.sissa.it/~bassett/reheating/ . Matched to version to appear in Phys. Rev. let

Entropy and Uncertainty of Squeezed Quantum Open Systems

We define the entropy S and uncertainty function of a squeezed system interacting with a thermal bath, and study how they change in time by following the evolution of the reduced density matrix in the influence functional formalism. As examples, we calculate the entropy of two exactly solvable squeezed systems: an inverted harmonic oscillator and a scalar field mode evolving in an inflationary universe. For the inverted oscillator with weak coupling to the bath, at both high and low temperatures, $S\to r$, where r is the squeeze parameter. In the de Sitter case, at high temperatures, $S\to (1-c)r$ where $c = \gamma_0/H$, $\gamma_0$ being the coupling to the bath and H the Hubble constant. These three cases confirm previous results based on more ad hoc prescriptions for calculating entropy. But at low temperatures, the de Sitter entropy $S\to (1/2-c)r$ is noticeably different. This result, obtained from a more rigorous approach, shows that factors usually ignored by the conventional approaches, i.e., the nature of the environment and the coupling strength betwen the system and the environment, are important.Comment: 36 pages, epsfig, 2 in-text figures include

Influence Action and decoherence of hydrodynamic modes

We derive an influence action for the heat diffusion equation and from its spectral dependence show that long wavelength hydrodynamic modes are most readily decohered. The result is independent of the details of the microscopic dynamics, and follows from general principles alone.Comment: 5 pages, no figure

BEC Collapse and Dynamical Squeezing of Vacuum Fluctuations

We analyze the phenomena of Bose Novae, as described by Donley et al [Nature 412, 295 (2001)], by focusing on the behavior of excitations or fluctuations above the condensate, as driven by the dynamics of the condensate (rather than the dynamics of the condensate alone or the kinetics of the atoms). The dynamics of the condensate squeezes and amplifies the quantum excitations, mixing the positive and negative frequency components of their wave functions thereby creating particles which appear as bursts and jets. By analyzing the changing amplitude and particle content of these excitations, our simple physical picture (based on a test field approximation) explains well the overall features of the Bose Novae phenomena and provide excellent quantitative fits with experimental data on several aspects, such as the scaling behavior of the collapse time and the amount of particles in the jet. The predictions of the bursts at this level of approximation is less than satisfactory but may be improved on by including the backreaction of the excitations on the condensate. The mechanism behind the dominant effect -- parametric amplification of vacuum fluctuations and freezing of modes outside of horizon -- is similar to that of cosmological particle creation and structure formation in a rapid quench (which is fundamentally different from Hawking radiation in black holes). This shows that BEC dynamics is a promising venue for doing `laboratory cosmology'.Comment: Latex 36 pages, 6 figure

Correlation Entropy of an Interacting Quantum Field and H-theorem for the O(N) Model

Following the paradigm of Boltzmann-BBGKY we propose a correlation entropy (of the nth order) for an interacting quantum field, obtained by `slaving' (truncation with causal factorization) of the higher (n+1 th) order correlation functions in the Schwinger-Dyson system of equations. This renders an otherwise closed system effectively open where dissipation arises. The concept of correlation entropy is useful for addressing issues related to thermalization. As a small yet important step in that direction we prove an H-theorem for the correlation entropy of a quantum mechanical O(N) model with a Closed Time Path Two Particle Irreducible Effective Action at the level of Next-to-Leading-Order large N approximation. This model may be regarded as a field theory in $0$ space dimensions.Comment: 22 page

Overcoming establishment thresholds for peat mosses in human-made bog pools

Globally, peatlands have been affected by drainage and peat extraction, with adverse effects on their functioning and services. To restore peat‐forming vegetation, drained bogs are being rewetted on a large scale. Although this practice results in higher groundwater levels, unfortunately it often creates deep lakes in parts where peat was extracted to greater depths than the surroundings. Revegetation of these deeper waters by peat mosses appears to be challenging due to strong abiotic feedbacks that keep these systems in an undesired bare state. In this study, we theoretically explore if a floating peat mat and an open human‐made bog lake can be considered two alternative stable states using a simple model, and experimentally test in the field whether stable states are present, and whether a state shift can be accomplished using floating biodegradable structures that mimic buoyant peat. We transplanted two peat moss species into these structures (pioneer sp. Sphagnum cuspidatum and later‐successional sp. S. palustre) with and without additional organic substrate. Our model suggests that these open human‐made bog lakes and floating peat mats can indeed be regarded as alternative stable states. Natural recovery by spontaneous peat moss growth, i.e., a state shift from open water to floating mats, is only possible when the water table is sufficiently shallow to avoid light limitation (<0.29 m at our site). Our experiment revealed that alternative stable states are present and that the floating structures facilitated the growth of pioneer S. cuspidatum and vascular plants. Organic substrate addition particularly facilitated vascular plant growth, which correlated to higher moss height. The structures remained too wet for the late‐successional species S. palustre. We conclude that open water and floating peat mats in human‐made bog lakes can be considered two alternative stable states, and that temporary floating establishment structures can induce a state shift from the open water state to peat‐forming vegetation state. These findings imply that for successful restoration, there is a clear water depth threshold to enable peat moss growth and there is no need for addition of large amounts of donor‐peat substrate. Correct species selection for restoration is crucial for success

Regional and seasonal flight speeds of soaring migrants and the role of weather conditions at hourly and daily scales

Given that soaring birds travel faster with supportive winds or in good thermal soaring conditions, we expect weather conditions en route of migration to explain commonly observed regional and seasonal patterns in the performance of soaring migrants. We used GPS-loggers to track 13 honey buzzards and four Montagu's harriers for two to six migrations each. We determined how tailwinds, crosswinds, boundary layer height (a proxy for thermal convection) and precipitation affected hourly speeds, daily distances and daily mean speeds with linear regression models. Honey buzzards mostly travel by soaring while Montagu's harriers supplement soaring with flapping. Therefore, we expect that performance of harriers will be less affected by weather than for buzzards. Weather conditions explained between 30 and 50% of variation in migration performance of both species. Tailwind had the largest effect on hourly speeds, daily mean speeds and daily travel distances. Honey buzzards travelled significantly faster and farther, and Montagu's harriers non-significantly faster, under better convective conditions. Honey buzzards travelled at slower speeds and shorter distances in crosswinds, whereas harriers maintained high speeds in crosswinds. Weather conditions varied between regions and seasons, and this variation accounted for nearly all regional and seasonal variation in flight performance. Hourly performance was higher than predicted at times when we suspect birds had switched to intermittent or continuous flapping flight, for example during sea-crossings. The daily travel distance of Montagu's harriers was determined to a significant extent by their daily travel time, which differed between regions, possibly also due to weather conditions. We conclude with the implications of our work for studies on migration phenology and we suggest an important role for high-resolution telemetry in understanding migratory behavior across entire migratory journeys