Speckle interferometry and radiative transfer modelling of the Wolf-Rayet star WR 118

WR 118 is a highly evolved Wolf-Rayet star of the WC10 subtype surrounded by a permanent dust shell absorbing and re-emitting in the infrared a considerable fraction of the stellar luminosity. We present the first diffraction-limited 2.13micron speckle interferometric observations of WR 118 with 73 mas resolution. The speckle interferograms were obtained with the 6m telescope at the Special Astrophysical Observatory. The two-dimensional visibility function of the object does not show any significant deviation from circular symmetry. The visibility curve declines towards the diffraction cut-off frequency to 0.66 and can be approximated by a linear function. Radiative transfer calculations have been carried out to model the spectral energy distribution, given in the range of 0.5-25micron, and our 2.13micron visibility function, assuming spherical symmetry of the dust shell. Both can be fitted with a model containing double-sized grains (``small'' and ``large'') with the radii of a = 0.05micron and 0.38micron, and a mass fraction of the large grains greater than 65%. Alternatively, a good match can be obtained with the grain size distribution function n(a)~a^-3, with a ranging between 0.005micron and 0.6micron. At the inner boundary of the modelled dust shell (angular diameter (17 +/- 1)mas), the temperature of the smallest grains and the dust shell density are 1750K +/- 100K and (1 +/- 0.2)x10^-19 g/cm^3, respectively. The dust formation rate is found to be (1.3 +/- 0.5)x10^-7 Msol/yr assuming Vwind = 1200 km/s.Comment: 6 pages including 4 PostScript figures, also available from http://www.mpifr-bonn.mpg.de/div/ir-interferometry/publications.html; accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Prediction of fetal and neonatal outcomes after preterm manifestations of placental insufficiency:systematic review of prediction models

Objectives: To identify all prediction models for fetal and neonatal outcomes in pregnancies with preterm manifestations of placental insufficiency (gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia, HELLP syndrome or fetal growth restriction with its onset before 37 weeks' gestation) and to assess the quality of the models and their performance on external validation. Methods: A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, Web of Science and EMBASE. Studies describing prediction models for fetal/neonatal mortality or significant neonatal morbidity in patients with preterm placental insufficiency disorders were included. Data extraction was performed using the CHARMS checklist. Risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. Literature selection and data extraction were performed by two researchers independently. Results: Our literature search yielded 22 491 unique publications. Fourteen were included after full-text screening of 218 articles that remained after initial exclusions. The studies derived a total of 41 prediction models, including four models in the setting of pre-eclampsia or HELLP, two models in the setting of fetal growth restriction and/or pre-eclampsia and 35 models in the setting of fetal growth restriction. None of the models was validated externally, and internal validation was performed in only two studies. The final models contained mainly ultrasound (Doppler) markers as predictors of fetal/neonatal mortality and neonatal morbidity. Discriminative properties were reported for 27/41 models (c-statistic between 0.6 and 0.9). Only two studies presented a calibration plot. The risk of bias was assessed as unclear in one model and high for all other models, mainly owing to the use of inappropriate statistical methods. Conclusions: We identified 41 prediction models for fetal and neonatal outcomes in pregnancies with preterm manifestations of placental insufficiency. All models were considered to be of low methodological quality, apart from one that had unclear methodological quality. Higher-quality models and external validation studies are needed to inform clinical decision-making based on prediction models.</p

Glaciological and marine geological controls on terminus dynamics of Hubbard Glacier, southeast Alaska

An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2015) American Geophysical Union.Hubbard Glacier, located in southeast Alaska, is the world's largest nonpolar tidewater glacier. It has been steadily advancing since it was first mapped in 1895; occasionally, the advance creates an ice or sediment dam that blocks a tributary fjord (Russell Fiord). The sustained advance raises the probability of long-term closure in the near future, which will strongly impact the ecosystem of Russell Fiord and the nearby community of Yakutat. Here, we examine a 43 year record of flow speeds and terminus position to understand the large-scale dynamics of Hubbard Glacier. Our long-term record shows that the rate of terminus advance has increased slightly since 1895, with the exception of a slowed advance between approximately 1972 and 1984. The short-lived closure events in 1986 and 2002 were not initiated by perturbations in ice velocity or environmental forcings but were likely due to fluctuations in sedimentation patterns at the terminus. This study points to the significance of a coupled system where short-term velocity fluctuations and morainal shoal development control tidewater glacier terminus position

ICESat Measurements Reveal Complex Pattern of Elevation Changes on Siple Coast Ice Streams, Antarctica

We compare ICESat data (2003-2004) to airborne laser altimetry data (1997-98 and 1999-2000) to monitor surface changes over portions of Van der Veen (VdVIS), Whillans (WIS) and Kamb ice streams (KIS) in the Ross Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The spatial pattern of detected surface changes is generally consistent with earlier observations. However, important changes have occurred during the past decade. For example, areas on the VdVIS and WIS, where large thinning was detected by the airborne surveys, are now closer to being in balance. The upper trunk of KIS continues to build up with thickening rates reaching 0.4 m/year. Our results provide new evidence that the overall mass balance of the region is becoming more positive, but a significant spatial variability exists. They also demonstrate the potential of ICESat data for detecting spatial patterns of surface elevation change in Antarctica

Webteaching: sequencing of subject matter in relation to prior knowledge of pupils

Two experiments are discussed in which the sequencing procedure of webteaching is compared with a linear sequence for the presentation of text material.\ud \ud In the first experiment variations in the level of prior knowledge of pupils were studied for their influence on the sequencing mode of text presentation. Prior knowledge greatly reduced the effect of the size of sequencing procedures.\ud \ud In the second experiment pupils with a low level of prior knowledge studied a text, following either a websequence or a linear sequence. Webteaching was superior to linear teaching on a number of dependent variables. It is concluded that webteaching is an effective sequencing procedure in those cases where substantial new learning is required

Discretionary sanctions and rewards in the repeated inspection game

We experimentally investigate a repeated “inspection game” where, in the stage game, an employee can either work or shirk and an employer simultaneously chooses to inspect or not inspect. The unique equilibrium of the stage game is in mixed strategies with positive probabilities of shirking/inspecting while combined payoffs are maximized when the employee works and the employer does not inspect. We examine the effects of allowing the employer discretion to sanction or reward the employee after observing stage game payoffs. When employers have limited discretion, and can only apply sanctions and/or rewards following an inspection, we find that both instruments are equally effective in reducing shirking and increasing joint earnings. When employers have discretion to reward and/or sanction independently of whether they inspect we find that rewards are more effective than sanctions. In treatments where employers can combine sanctions and rewards employers rely mainly on rewards and outcomes closely resemble those of treatments where only rewards are possible

Routine versus on demand removal of the syndesmotic screw; a protocol for an international randomised controlled trial (RODEO-trial)

Background: Syndesmotic injuries are common and their incidence is rising. In case of surgical fixation of the syndesmosis a metal syndesmotic screw is used most often. It is however unclear whether this screw needs to be removed routinely after the syndesmosis has healed. Traditionally the screw is removed after six to 12 weeks as it is thought to hamper ankle functional and to be a source of pain. Some studies however suggest this is only the case in a minority of patients. We therefore aim to investigate the effect of retaining the syndesmotic screw on functional outcome. Design: This is a pragmatic international multicentre randomised controlled trial in patients with an acute syndesmotic injury for which a metallic syndesmotic screw was placed. Patients will be randomised to either routine removal of the syndesmotic screw or removal on demand. Primary outcome is functional recovery at 12 months measured with the Olerud-Molander Score. Secondary outcomes are quality of life, pain and costs. In total 194 patients will be needed to demonstrate non-inferiority between the two interventions at 80% power and a significance level of 0.025 including 15% loss to follow-up. Discussion: If removal on demand of the syndesmotic screw is non-inferior to routine removal in terms of functional outcome, this will offer a strong argument to adopt this as standard practice of care. This means that patients will not have to undergo a secondary procedure, leading to less complications and subsequent lower costs.Peer reviewe