Increase of Simultaneous Soybean Failures Due To Climate Change

While soybeans are among the most consumed crops in the world, most of its production lies in the US, Brazil, and Argentina. The concentration of soybean growing regions in the Americas renders the supply chain vulnerable to regional disruptions. In 2012, anomalous hot and dry conditions occurring simultaneously in these regions led to low soybean yields, which drove global soybean prices to all-time records. In this study, we explore climate change impacts on simultaneous extreme crop failures as the one from 2012. We develop a hybrid model, coupling a process-based crop model with a machine learning model, to improve the simulation of soybean production. We assess the frequency and magnitude of events with similar or higher impacts than 2012 under different future scenarios, evaluating anomalies both with respect to present day and future conditions to disentangle the impacts of (changing) climate variability from the long-term mean trends. We find long-term trends in mean climate increase the frequency of 2012 analogs by 11–16 times and the magnitude by 4–15% compared to changes in climate variability only depending on the global climate scenario. Conversely, anomalies like the 2012 event due to changes in climate variability show an increase in frequency in each country individually, but not simultaneously across the Americas. We deduce that adaptation of the crop production practice to the long-term mean trends of climate change may considerably reduce the future risk of simultaneous soybean losses across the Americas

Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change

Unfavourable weather is a common cause for crop failures all over the world. Whilst extreme weather conditions may cause extreme impacts, crop failure commonly is induced by the occurrence of multiple and combined anomalous meteorological drivers. For these cases, the explanation of conditions leading to crop failure is complex, as the links connecting weather and crop yield can be multiple and non-linear. Furthermore, climate change is likely to perturb the meteorological conditions, possibly altering the occurrences of crop failures or leading to unprecedented drivers of extreme impacts. The goal of this study is to identify important meteorological drivers that cause crop failures and to explore changes in crop failures due to global warming. For that, we focus on a historical failure event, the extreme low soybean production during the 2012 season in the midwestern US. We first train a random forest model to identify the most relevant meteorological drivers of historical crop failures and to predict crop failure probabilities. Second, we explore the influence of global warming on crop failures and on the structure of compound drivers. We use large ensembles from the EC-Earth global climate model, corresponding to present-day, pre-industrial +2 and 3 ∘C warming, respectively, to isolate the global warming component. Finally, we explore the meteorological conditions inductive for the 2012 crop failure and construct analogues of these failure conditions in future climate settings. We find that crop failures in the midwestern US are linked to low precipitation levels, and high temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) levels during July and August. Results suggest soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. With more frequent warm years due to global warming, the joint hot–dry conditions leading to crop failures become mostly dependent on precipitation levels, reducing the importance of the relative compound contribution. While event analogues of the 2012 season are rare and not expected to increase, impact analogues show a significant increase in occurrence frequency under global warming, but for different combinations of the meteorological drivers than experienced in 2012. This has implications for assessment of the drivers of extreme impact events

Study protocol of a randomized controlled trial comparing Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction with treatment as usual in reducing psychological distress in patients with lung cancer and their partners: the MILON study

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide and characterized by a poor prognosis. It has a major impact on the psychological wellbeing of patients and their partners. Recently, it has been shown that Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR) is effective in reducing anxiety and depressive symptoms in cancer patients. The generalization of these results is limited since most participants were female patients with breast cancer. Moreover, only one study examined the effectiveness of MBSR in partners of cancer patients. Therefore, in the present trial we study the effectiveness of MBSR versus treatment as usual (TAU) in patients with lung cancer and their partners. METHODS/DESIGN: A parallel group, randomized controlled trial is conducted to compare MBSR with TAU. Lung cancer patients who have received or are still under treatment, and their partners are recruited. Assessments will take place at baseline, post intervention and at three-month follow-up. The primary outcome is psychological distress (i.e. anxiety and depressive symptoms). Secondary outcomes are quality of life (only for patients), caregiver appraisal (only for partners), relationship quality and spirituality. In addition, cost-effectiveness ratio (only in patients) and several process variables are assessed. DISCUSSION: This trial will provide information about the clinical and cost-effectiveness of MBSR compared to TAU in patients with lung cancer and their partners. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01494883

Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study

Seven climate models were used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change (LCC) at regional and global scales. The imposed LCC led to statistically significant decreases in the northern hemisphere summer latent heat flux in three models, and increases in three models. Five models simulated statistically significant cooling in summer in near-surface temperature over regions of LCC and one simulated warming. There were few significant changes in precipitation. Our results show no common remote impacts of LCC. The lack of consistency among the seven models was due to: 1) the implementation of LCC despite agreed maps of agricultural land, 2) the representation of crop phenology, 3) the parameterisation of albedo, and 4) the representation of evapotranspiration for different land cover types. This study highlights a dilemma: LCC is regionally significant, but it is not feasible to impose a common LCC across multiple models for the next IPCC assessment

Tales of future weather

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives for high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This 'tales of future weather' approach will aid in the interpretation of lower-resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like

Associations between symptoms, donor characteristics and IgG antibody response in 2082 COVID-19 convalescent plasma donors

Many studies already reported on the association between patient characteristics on the severity of COVID-19 disease outcome, but the relation with SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels is less clear. To investigate this in more detail, we performed a retrospective observational study in which we used the IgG antibody response from 11,118 longitudinal antibody measurements of 2,082 unique COVID convalescent plasma donors. COVID-19 symptoms and donor characteristics were obtained by a questionnaire. Antibody responses were modelled using a linear mixed-effects model. Our study confirms that the SARS-CoV-2 antibody response is associated with patient characteristics like body mass index and age. Antibody decay was faster in male than in female donors (average half-life of 62 versus 72 days). Most interestingly, we also found that three symptoms (headache, anosmia, nasal cold) were associated with lower peak IgG, while six other symptoms (dry cough, fatigue, diarrhoea, fever, dyspnoea, muscle weakness) were associated with higher IgG concentrations.Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technologyPharmacolog

Aandacht voor veiligheid

De komende decennia worden er tussen de 500.000 en 1.500.000 woningen gebouwd waarvan een groot deel in laag Nederland. Deze studie laat zien dat door deze woningen overstromingsbestendig te bouwen schadereductie mogelijk is. Het schaderisico wordt dan nog eens een factor 2 minder als naast een Business as Usual variant nieuwbouwwoningen worden opgehoogd tot +5 m NAP. De kosten van opgehoogde nieuwbouwhuizen zijn hoger en variëren tussen de 0,4 en 1.7 miljard euro/jaar, hetgeen overeenkomt met 0,1-0,5% van het BNP. Dijkversterking levert de hoogste reductie op in het schaderisico bij de gehanteerde scenario’s. Gevolgbeperkende maatregelen in de ruimtelijk ordening als additionele oplossingsrichting zijn echter goed mogelijk als er ook een economische perspectief is bijvoorbeeld door middel van multifunctioneel ruimtegebruik

Optimal clinical management of children receiving ketogenic parenteral nutrition: a clinical practice guide

AIM To give evidence-based recommendations on the application of ketogenic diet parenteral nutrition (KD-PN) in emergency situations. METHOD An international group of experts (n=14) researched the literature and distributed a survey among 150 expert centers. International accepted guidelines (European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism/European Society for Paediatric Gastroenterology Hepatology and Nutrition and the American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition) and handbooks for parenteral nutrition were considered general standards of care. RESULTS In the literature, we identified 35 reports of patients treated by KD-PN. International guidelines and handbooks provided some conflicting information. Twenty-four expert teams from nine countries responded to the survey, reflecting the limited clinical experience. INTERPRETATION This paper highlights 23 consensus-based recommendations for safe and effective KD-PN (e.g. diet initiation, calculation, application, monitoring, and evaluation) based on the best evidence available and expert opinions

Whole body composition analysis by the BodPod air-displacement plethysmography method in children with phenylketonuria shows a higher body fat percentage

BACKGROUND: Phenylketonuria (PKU) causes irreversible central nervous system damage unless a phenylalanine (PHE) restricted diet with amino acid supplementation is maintained. To prevent growth retardation, a protein/amino acid intake beyond the recommended dietary protein allowance is mandatory. However, data regarding disease and/or diet related changes in body composition are inconclusive and retarded growth and/or adiposity is still reported. The BodPod whole body air-displacement plethysmography method is a fast, safe and accurate technique to measure body composition. AIM: To gain more insight into the body composition of children with PKU. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with PKU born between 1991 and 2001 were included. Patients were identified by neonatal screening and treated in our centre. Body composition was measured using the BodPod system (Life Measurement Incorporation©). Blood PHE values determined every 1–3 months in the year preceding BodPod analysis were collected. Patients were matched for gender and age with data of healthy control subjects. Independent samples t tests, Mann–Whitney and linear regression were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: The mean body fat percentage in patients with PKU (n = 20) was significantly higher compared to healthy controls (n = 20) (25.2% vs 18.4%; p = 0.002), especially in girls above 11 years of age (30.1% vs 21.5%; p = 0.027). Body fat percentage increased with rising body weight in patients with PKU only (R = 0.693, p = 0.001), but did not correlate with mean blood PHE level (R = 0.079, p = 0.740). CONCLUSION: Our data show a higher body fat percentage in patients with PKU, especially in girls above 11 years of age