Modelling and observing urban climate in the Netherlands

Volgens de klimaatscenario’s van het KNMI uit 2006 zal de gemiddelde temperatuur in Nederland in de komende decennia verder stijgen. Hittegolven zullen naar verwachting vaker voorkomen en de intensiteit van met name zomerse buien kan toenemen. In steden zijn de gevolgen van de opwarming extra voelbaar, omdat de temperaturen er door het zogenoemde Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect veel hoger kunnen zijn dan in het omliggende gebied. Zulke periodes met hoge temperaturen gaan veelal gepaard met verslechterde luchtkwaliteit en droogte. Dit alles kan grote gevolgen hebben voor de leefbaarheid en de gezondheid van de bevolking in stedelijke gebieden. Veranderingen in de buienintensiteit beïnvloeden de waterhuishouding van de stad

Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layers and Diurnal Cycles – Challenges for Weather and Climate Models

The representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is an important part of weather and climate models and impacts many applications such as air quality and wind energy. Over the years, the performance in modeling 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed has improved but errors are still significant. This is in particular the case under clear skies and low wind speed conditions at night as well as during winter in stably stratified conditions over land and ice. In this paper, the authors review these issues and provide an overview of the current understanding and model performance. Results from weather forecast and climate models are used to illustrate the state of the art as well as findings and recommendations from three intercomparison studies held within the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS). Within GABLS, the focus has been on the examination of the representation of the stable boundary layer and the diurnal cycle over land in clear-sky conditions. For this purpose, single-column versions of weather and climate models have been compared with observations, research models, and large-eddy simulations. The intercomparison cases are based on observations taken in the Arctic, Kansas, and Cabauw in the Netherlands. From these studies, we find that even for the noncloudy boundary layer important parameterization challenges remain.SB acknowledges the financial support received from the NationalScience Foundation by way of Grant AGS-1122315

Overview of the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS)

In 2001 the steering group of GEWEX (formally known as the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) initiated the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS). The objective of GABLS is to improve the representation of the atmospheric boundary layer in regional and large-scale atmospheric models. As such, GABLS provides a platform for model inter-comparison and development to benefit studies of Climate, Weather, Air Quality, Wind Energy and other applications. The focus of GABLS has so far been on stable boundary layers (SBLs) over land and on the representation of the diurnal cycle under clear skies. Three inter-comparison studies have been organised and below a summary of some of the results and achievements is given. Here we primarily focus on the performance of single column versions of several state-of-the-art atmospheric models

Long-term health status and trajectories of seriously injured patients: A population-based longitudinal study

Improved understanding of the quality of survival of patients is crucial in evaluating trauma care, understanding recovery patterns and timeframes, and informing healthcare, social, and disability service provision. We aimed to describe the longer-term health status of seriously injured patients, identify predictors of outcome, and establish recovery trajectories by population characteristics.A population-based, prospective cohort study using the Victorian State Trauma Registry (VSTR) was undertaken. We followed up 2,757 adult patients, injured between July 2011 and June 2012, through deaths registry linkage and telephone interview at 6-, 12-, 24-, and 36-months postinjury. The 3-level EuroQol 5 dimensions questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) was collected, and mixed-effects regression modelling was used to identify predictors of outcome, and recovery trajectories, for the EQ-5D-3L items and summary score. Mean (SD) age of participants was 50.8 (21.6) years, and 72% were male. Twelve percent (n = 333) died during their hospital stay, 8.1% (n = 222) of patients died postdischarge, and 155 (7.0%) were known to have survived to 36-months postinjury but were lost to follow-up at all time points. The prevalence of reporting problems at 36-months postinjury was 37% for mobility, 21% for self-care, 47% for usual activities, 50% for pain/discomfort, and 41% for anxiety/depression. Continued improvement to 36-months postinjury was only present for the usual activities item; the adjusted relative risk (ARR) of reporting problems decreased from 6 to 12 (ARR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.83-0.90), 12 to 24 (ARR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.90-0.98), and 24 to 36 months (ARR 0.95, 95% CI: 0.95-0.99). The risk of reporting problems with pain or discomfort increased from 24- to 36-months postinjury (ARR 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.12). While loss to follow-up was low, there was responder bias with patients injured in intentional events, younger, and less seriously injured patients less likely to participate; therefore, these patient subgroups were underrepresented in the study findings.The prevalence of ongoing problems at 3-years postinjury is high, confirming that serious injury is frequently a chronic disorder. These findings have implications for trauma system design. Investment in interventions to reduce the longer-term impact of injuries is needed, and greater investment in primary prevention is needed

Revisiting the Local Scaling Hypothesis in Stably Stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layer Turbulence: an Integration of Field and Laboratory Measurements with Large-eddy Simulations

The `local scaling' hypothesis, first introduced by Nieuwstadt two decades ago, describes the turbulence structure of stable boundary layers in a very succinct way and is an integral part of numerous local closure-based numerical weather prediction models. However, the validity of this hypothesis under very stable conditions is a subject of on-going debate. In this work, we attempt to address this controversial issue by performing extensive analyses of turbulence data from several field campaigns, wind-tunnel experiments and large-eddy simulations. Wide range of stabilities, diverse field conditions and a comprehensive set of turbulence statistics make this study distinct

Exploring the Possible Role of Small-Scale Terrain Drag on Stable Boundary Layers over Land

This paper addresses the possible role of unresolved terrain drag, relative to the turbulent drag on the development of the stable atmospheric boundary layer over land. Adding a first-order estimate for terrain drag to the turbulent drag appears to provide drag that is similar to the enhanced turbulent drag obtained with the so-called long-tail mixing functions. These functions are currently used in many operational models for weather and climate, although they lack a clear physical basis. Consequently, a simple and practical quasi-empirical parameterization of terrain drag divergence for use in large-scale models is proposed and is tested in a column mode. As an outcome, the cross-isobaric mass flow (a measure for cyclone filling) with the new scheme, using realistic turbulent drag, appears to be equal to what is found with the unphysical long-tail scheme. At the same time, the new scheme produces a much more realistic less-deep boundary layer than is obtained by using the long-tail mixing function.Keywords: Land surface, Small scale processes, Boundary layerKeywords: Land surface, Small scale processes, Boundary laye

Routine versus on demand removal of the syndesmotic screw; a protocol for an international randomised controlled trial (RODEO-trial)

Background: Syndesmotic injuries are common and their incidence is rising. In case of surgical fixation of the syndesmosis a metal syndesmotic screw is used most often. It is however unclear whether this screw needs to be removed routinely after the syndesmosis has healed. Traditionally the screw is removed after six to 12 weeks as it is thought to hamper ankle functional and to be a source of pain. Some studies however suggest this is only the case in a minority of patients. We therefore aim to investigate the effect of retaining the syndesmotic screw on functional outcome. Design: This is a pragmatic international multicentre randomised controlled trial in patients with an acute syndesmotic injury for which a metallic syndesmotic screw was placed. Patients will be randomised to either routine removal of the syndesmotic screw or removal on demand. Primary outcome is functional recovery at 12 months measured with the Olerud-Molander Score. Secondary outcomes are quality of life, pain and costs. In total 194 patients will be needed to demonstrate non-inferiority between the two interventions at 80% power and a significance level of 0.025 including 15% loss to follow-up. Discussion: If removal on demand of the syndesmotic screw is non-inferior to routine removal in terms of functional outcome, this will offer a strong argument to adopt this as standard practice of care. This means that patients will not have to undergo a secondary procedure, leading to less complications and subsequent lower costs.Peer reviewe

Routine versus on demand removal of the syndesmotic screw; a protocol for an international randomised controlled trial (RODEO-trial) (vol 19, 35, 2018)

Peer reviewe

The burden of road traffic accidents in a French Departement: the description of the injuries and recent changes

International audienceBACKGROUND: A significant reduction in road traffic accidents has been observed since prevention measures were introduced by the French public authorities in 2002. The goals of this study are to describe the burden of road traffic accidents in a French Departement, and to identify changes if any between the periods 1997-2001 and 2002-2006 on the basis of the disability adjusted life years (DALY). METHODS: Years of lost life (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) were calculated for two periods using the mortality and incidence data in the Rhone Departement Registry of Road Traffic Accident Casualties. RESULTS: YLD and YLL that are related to road traffic accidents are at their maximum value between 15 and 24 years of age. For men, intracranial fractures and intracranial injuries dominate, and for women it is spinal cord injuries that account for highest rates of YLD. A reduction in the rates of YLL and YLD has been observed for both genders and all age groups between 1997-2001 and 2002-2006. CONCLUSION: The reduction in DALY between the two periods is explained both by the reduction in the number of fatalities and injuries but also by an increase in the age at which they occur