influence.ME: tools for detecting influential data in mixed effects models

influence.ME provides tools for detecting influential data in mixed effects models. The application of these models has become common practice, but the development of diagnostic tools has lagged behind. influence.ME calculates standardized measures of influential data for the point estimates of generalized mixed effects models, such as DFBETAS, Cook’s distance, as well as percentile change and a test for changing levels of significance. influence.ME calculates these measures of influence while accounting for the nesting structure of the data. The package and measures of influential data\ud are introduced, a practical example is given, and strategies for dealing with influential data are suggested

Effects of countdown displays in public transport route choice under severe overcrowding

The paper presents a route choice model for dynamic assignment in congested, i.e. overcrowded, transit networks where it is assumed that passengers are supported with real-time information on carrier arrivals at stops. If the stop layout is such that passenger congestion results in First-In-First-Out (FIFO) queues, a new formulation is devised for calculating waiting times, total travel times and route splits. Numerical results for a simple example network show the effect of information on route choice when heavy congestion is observed. While the provision of information does not lead to a remarkable decrease in total travel time, with the exception of some particular instances, it changes the travel behaviour of passengers that seem to be more averse to queuing at later stages of their journey and, thus, prefer to interchange at less congested stations

The Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort model: Why does it find the results that it finds?

It is claimed the hierarchical-age–period–cohort (HAPC) model solves the age–period–cohort (APC) identification problem. However, this is debateable; simulations show situations where the model produces incorrect results, countered by proponents of the model arguing those simulations are not relevant to real-life scenarios. This paper moves beyond questioning whether the HAPC model works, to why it produces the results it does. We argue HAPC estimates are the result not of the distinctive substantive APC processes occurring in the dataset, but are primarily an artefact of the data structure—that is, the way the data has been collected. Were the data collected differently, the results produced would be different. This is illustrated both with simulations and real data, the latter by taking a variety of samples from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data used by Reither et al. (Soc Sci Med 69(10):1439–1448, 2009) in their HAPC study of obesity. When a sample based on a small range of cohorts is taken, such that the period range is much greater than the cohort range, the results produced are very different to those produced when cohort groups span a much wider range than periods, as is structurally the case with repeated cross-sectional data. The paper also addresses the latest defence of the HAPC model by its proponents (Reither et al. in Soc Sci Med 145:125–128, 2015a). The results lend further support to the view that the HAPC model is not able to accurately discern APC effects, and should be used with caution when there appear to be period or cohort near-linear trends

Electrical conductivity during incipient melting in the oceanic low-velocity zone

International audienceThe low-viscosity layer in the upper mantle, the asthenosphere, is a requirement for plate tectonics1. The seismic low velocities and the high electrical conductivities of the asthenosphere are attributed either to subsolidus, water-related defects in olivine minerals2, 3, 4 or to a few volume per cent of partial melt5, 6, 7, 8, but these two interpretations have two shortcomings. First, the amount of water stored in olivine is not expected to be higher than 50 parts per million owing to partitioning with other mantle phases9 (including pargasite amphibole at moderate temperatures10) and partial melting at high temperatures9. Second, elevated melt volume fractions are impeded by the temperatures prevailing in the asthenosphere, which are too low, and by the melt mobility, which is high and can lead to gravitational segregation11, 12. Here we determine the electrical conductivity of carbon-dioxide-rich and water-rich melts, typically produced at the onset of mantle melting. Electrical conductivity increases modestly with moderate amounts of water and carbon dioxide, but it increases drastically once the carbon dioxide content exceeds six weight per cent in the melt. Incipient melts, long-expected to prevail in the asthenosphere10, 13, 14, 15, can therefore produce high electrical conductivities there. Taking into account variable degrees of depletion of the mantle in water and carbon dioxide, and their effect on the petrology of incipient melting, we calculated conductivity profiles across the asthenosphere for various tectonic plate ages. Several electrical discontinuities are predicted and match geophysical observations in a consistent petrological and geochemical framework. In moderately aged plates (more than five million years old), incipient melts probably trigger both the seismic low velocities and the high electrical conductivities in the upper part of the asthenosphere, whereas in young plates4, where seamount volcanism occurs6, a higher degree of melting is expected

A Petition to the Senate and House of Representatives for the, Improvement of the Outlet of North Black Lake, Near the Holland Colony.

A petition to the Senate and House of Representatives for the improvement of the outlet of North Black Lake near the Holland Colony. Not less than 5,000 souls have landed on the shores of Michigan, and most of them are now comfortably settled in their homes....The past season, we have been blessed with abundant harvests, and our people have already begun to develop the rich resources of the land of our adoption....There are now within our limits, two water Saw Mills, one steam Saw MIll, and one wind Saw Mill; three custom grinding mills, one ashery and soap and candle manufactory, one tannery, one brick yard, and one boat yard. We have eight places of worship, and eight schools, four of them taught by American teachers....A charter for the proposed plank road has already been secured,... The petitioners are A. C. Van Raalte, Vander Sling, A. Ver Horst, T. Schrader, B. Grotenhuis, and J. Binnekant.https://digitalcommons.hope.edu/vrp_1840s/1226/thumbnail.jp