Bat echolocation modelling using spike kernels with Support Vector Regression

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Evolution at the edge of expanding populations

Predicting evolution of expanding populations is critical to control biological threats such as invasive species and cancer metastasis. Expansion is primarily driven by reproduction and dispersal, but nature abounds with examples of evolution where organisms pay a reproductive cost to disperse faster. When does selection favor this 'survival of the fastest?' We searched for a simple rule, motivated by evolution experiments where swarming bacteria evolved into an hyperswarmer mutant which disperses $\sim 100\%$ faster but pays a growth cost of $\sim 10 \%$ to make many copies of its flagellum. We analyzed a two-species model based on the Fisher equation to explain this observation: the population expansion rate ($v$) results from an interplay of growth ($r$) and dispersal ($D$) and is independent of the carrying capacity: $v=2\sqrt{rD}$. A mutant can take over the edge only if its expansion rate ($v_2$) exceeds the expansion rate of the established species ($v_1$); this simple condition ($v_2 > v_1$) determines the maximum cost in slower growth that a faster mutant can pay and still be able to take over. Numerical simulations and time-course experiments where we tracked evolution by imaging bacteria suggest that our findings are general: less favorable conditions delay but do not entirely prevent the success of the fastest. Thus, the expansion rate defines a traveling wave fitness, which could be combined with trade-offs to predict evolution of expanding populations

A simple rule for the evolution of fast dispersal at the edge of expanding populations

Evolution by natural selection is commonly perceived as a process that favors those that replicate faster to leave more offspring; nature, however, seem to abound with examples where organisms forgo some replicative potential to disperse faster. When does selection favor invasion of the fastest? Motivated by evolution experiments with swarming bacteria we searched for a simple rule. In experiments, a fast hyperswarmer mutant that pays a reproductive cost to make many copies of its flagellum invades a population of mono-flagellated bacteria by reaching the expanding population edge; a two-species mathematical model explains that invasion of the edge occurs only if the invasive species' expansion rate, v₂, which results from the combination of the species growth rate and its dispersal speed (but not its carrying capacity), exceeds the established species', v₁. The simple rule that we derive, v₂ > v₁, appears to be general: less favorable initial conditions, such as smaller initial sizes and longer distances to the population edge, delay but do not entirely prevent invasion. Despite intricacies of the swarming system, experimental tests agree well with model predictions suggesting that the general theory should apply to other expanding populations with trade-offs between growth and dispersal, including non-native invasive species and cancer metastases.First author draf

Role of a plausible nuisance contributor in the declining obesity-mortality risks over time.

CONTEXT: Recent analyses of epidemiological data including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) have suggested that the harmful effects of obesity may have decreased over calendar time. The shifting BMI distribution over time coupled with the application of fixed broad BMI categories in these analyses could be a plausible nuisance contributor to this observed change in the obesity-associated mortality over calendar time. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the extent to which observed temporal changes in the obesity-mortality association may be due to a shifting population distribution for body mass index (BMI), coupled with analyses based on static, broad BMI categories. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Simulations were conducted using data from NHANES I and III linked with mortality data. Data from NHANES I were used to fit a true model treating BMI as a continuous variable. Coefficients estimated from this model were used to simulate mortality for participants in NHANES III. Hence, the population-level association between BMI and mortality in NHANES III was fixed to be identical to the association estimated in NHANES I. Hazard ratios (HRs) for obesity categories based on BMI for NHANES III with simulated mortality data were compared to the corresponding estimated HRs from NHANES I. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Change in hazard ratios for simulated data in NHANES III compared to observed estimates from NHANES I. RESULTS: On average, hazard ratios for NHANES III based on simulated mortality data were 29.3% lower than the estimates from NHANES I using observed mortality follow-up. This reduction accounted for roughly three-fourths of the apparent decrease in the obesity-mortality association observed in a previous analysis of these data. CONCLUSIONS: Some of the apparent diminution of the association between obesity and mortality may be an artifact of treating BMI as a categorical variable

Studies of hot B subdwarfs. Part 2: Energy distributions of three bright sdB/sdOB stars in the 950-5500 angstrom range

Voyager ultraviolet spectrometer observations of the subdwarf B or OB stars HD 205805, UV 1758+36 and Feige 66 are presented. All three objects display the H I Layman series in absorption. These observations are combined with low dispersion IUE spectrophotometry and with Stroemgren photometry to construct virtually complete energy distributions, which extend over the range 950-5500 angstroms. Effective temperatures based on model atmosphere calculations for high gravity, hydrogen rich stars are determined. Our analyses yield T Sub e 28,200 + or - 1300 K for HD 205805, T sub e 31, 800 + or - 1100 K for UV 1758+36, and T sub e 35,700 + or - 1500 K for Feige 66. The importance of far ultraviolet observations below L sub alpha in reducing the uncertainties associated with the interstellar extinction and the degradation of the IUE sensitivity is emphasized

Spectral analysis and abundances of the post-HB star HD 76431

HD76431 is a slow rotating post-HB star that shows an underabundance of helium by 0.5 dex relative to the solar value. These observational facts suggest that atomic diffusion could be active in its atmosphere. We have used the MMT and Bok spectra to estimate the atmospheric parameters of the target star using the model atmospheres and synthetic spectra calculated with TLUSTY and SYNSPEC. The derived values of the effective temperature, surface gravity, helium abundance are consistent with those obtained by Ramspeck et al. (2001b). It appears that NLTE effect are not important for HD76431. We have used Stokes I spectra from ESPaDOnS at CFHT to perform an abundance analysis and a search for observational evidence of vertical stratification of the abundance of certain elements. The results of our abundance analysis are in good agreement with previously published data with respect to average abundances. Our numerical simulations show that carbon and nitrogen reveal signatures of vertical abundance stratification in the atmosphere of HD76431. It appears that the carbon abundance increases toward the deeper atmospheric layers. Nitrogen also shows a similar behaviour, but in deeper atmospheric layers we obtain a significant dispersion for the estimates of its abundance. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of vertical abundance stratification of metals in a post-HB star and up to now it is the hottest star to show such stratification features. We also report the detection of two SiIII and one TiIII emission lines in the spectra of HD76431 that were not detected in previous studies.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

An asteroseismic test of diffusion theory in white dwarfs

The helium-atmosphere (DB) white dwarfs are commonly thought to be the descendants of the hotter PG1159 stars, which initially have uniform He/C/O atmospheres. In this evolutionary scenario, diffusion builds a pure He surface layer which gradually thickens as the star cools. In the temperature range of the pulsating DB white dwarfs (T_eff ~ 25,000 K) this transformation is still taking place, allowing asteroseismic tests of the theory. We have obtained dual-site observations of the pulsating DB star CBS114, to complement existing observations of the slightly cooler star GD358. We recover the 7 independent pulsation modes that were previously known, and we discover 4 new ones to provide additional constraints on the models. We perform objective global fitting of our updated double-layered envelope models to both sets of observations, leading to determinations of the envelope masses and pure He surface layers that qualitatively agree with the expectations of diffusion theory. These results provide new asteroseismic evidence supporting one of the central assumptions of spectral evolution theory, linking the DB white dwarfs to PG1159 stars.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in A&