Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: the rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC) model.

BACKGROUND: We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established. METHODS: The Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke Computer Simulation (RISC) model was developed using data covering 5 years of follow-up from the Rotterdam Study. To prove 1) internal and 2) predictive validity, the incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD death, and non-CVD death simulated by the model over a 13-year period were compared with those recorded for 3,478 participants in the Rotterdam Study with at least 13 years of follow-up. 3) External validity was verified using 10 years of follow-up data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study of 25,492 participants, for whom CVD and non-CVD mortality was compared. RESULTS: At year 5, the observed incidences (with simulated incidences in brackets) of CHD, stroke, and CVD and non-CVD mortality for the 3,478 Rotterdam Study participants were 5.30% (4.68%), 3.60% (3.23%), 4.70% (4.80%), and 7.50% (7.96%), respectively. At year 13, these percentages were 10.60% (10.91%), 9.90% (9.13%), 14.20% (15.12%), and 24.30% (23.42%). After recalibrating the model for the EPIC-Norfolk population, the 10-year observed (simulated) incidences of CVD and non-CVD mortality were 3.70% (4.95%) and 6.50% (6.29%). All observed incidences fell well within the 95% credibility intervals of the simulated incidences. CONCLUSIONS: We have confirmed the internal, predictive, and external validity of the RISC model. These findings provide a basis for analyzing the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors on the burden of CVD with the RISC model.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Gadoxetate-enhanced abbreviated MRI is highly accurate for hepatocellular carcinoma screening.

The primary objective was to compare the performance of 3 different abbreviated MRI (AMRI) sets extracted from a complete gadoxetate-enhanced MRI obtained for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening. Secondary objective was to perform a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis, comparing each AMRI set to published ultrasound performance for HCC screening in the USA. This retrospective study included 237 consecutive patients (M/F, 146/91; mean age, 58 years) with chronic liver disease who underwent a complete gadoxetate-enhanced MRI for HCC screening in 2017 in a single institution. Two radiologists independently reviewed 3 AMRI sets extracted from the complete exam: non-contrast (NC-AMRI: T2-weighted imaging (T2wi)+diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)), dynamic-AMRI (Dyn-AMRI: T2wi+DWI+dynamic T1wi), and hepatobiliary phase AMRI (HBP-AMRI: T2wi+DWI+T1wi during the HBP). Each patient was classified as HCC-positive/HCC-negative based on the reference standard, which consisted in all available patient data. Diagnostic performance for HCC detection was compared between sets. Estimated set characteristics, including historical ultrasound data, were incorporated into a microsimulation model for cost-effectiveness analysis. The reference standard identified 13/237 patients with HCC (prevalence, 5.5%; mean size, 33.7 ± 30 mm). Pooled sensitivities were 61.5% for NC-AMRI (95% confidence intervals, 34.4-83%), 84.6% for Dyn-AMRI (60.8-95.1%), and 80.8% for HBP-AMRI (53.6-93.9%), without difference between sets (p range, 0.06-0.16). Pooled specificities were 95.5% (92.4-97.4%), 99.8% (98.4-100%), and 94.9% (91.6-96.9%), respectively, with a significant difference between Dyn-AMRI and the other sets (p < 0.01). All AMRI methods were effective compared with ultrasound, with life-year gain of 3-12 months against incremental costs of US$ < 12,000. NC-AMRI has limited sensitivity for HCC detection, while HBP-AMRI and Dyn-AMRI showed excellent sensitivity and specificity, the latter being slightly higher for Dyn-AMRI. Cost-effectiveness estimates showed that AMRI is effective compared with ultrasound. • Comparison of different abbreviated MRI (AMRI) sets reconstructed from a complete gadoxetate MRI demonstrated that non-contrast AMRI has low sensitivity (61.5%) compared with contrast-enhanced AMRI (80.8% for hepatobiliary phase AMRI and 84.6% for dynamic AMRI), with all sets having high specificity. • Non-contrast and hepatobiliary phase AMRI can be performed in less than 14 min (including set-up time), while dynamic AMRI can be performed in less than 17 min. • All AMRI sets were cost-effective for HCC screening in at-risk population in comparison with ultrasound

Cardiovascular disease by diabetes status in five ethnic minority groups compared to ethnic Norwegians

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The population in Norway has become multi-ethnic due to migration from Asia and Africa over the recent decades. The aim of the present study was to explore differences in the self-reported prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated risk factors by diabetes status in five ethnic minority groups compared to ethnic Norwegians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Pooled data from three population-based cross-sectional studies conducted in Oslo between 2000 and 2002 was used. Of 54,473 invited individuals 24,749 (45.4%) participated. The participants self-reported health status, underwent a clinical examination and blood samples were drawn. A total of 17,854 individuals aged 30 to 61 years born in Norway, Sri-Lanka, Pakistan, Iran, Vietnam or Turkey were included in the study. Chi-square tests, one-way ANOVAs, ANCOVAs, multiple and logistic regression were used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Age- and gender-standardized prevalence of self-reported CVD varied between 5.8% and 8.2% for the ethnic minority groups, compared to 2.9% among ethnic Norwegians (p < 0.001). Prevalence of self-reported diabetes varied from 3.0% to 15.0% for the ethnic minority groups versus 1.8% for ethnic Norwegians (p < 0.001). Among individuals without diabetes, the CVD prevalence was 6.0% versus 2.6% for ethnic minorities and Norwegians, respectively (p < 0.001). Corresponding CVD prevalence rates among individuals with diabetes were 15.3% vs. 12.6% (p = 0.364). For individuals without diabetes, the odds ratio (OR) for CVD in the ethnic minority groups remained significantly higher (range 1.5-2.6) than ethnic Norwegians (p < 0.05), after adjustment for age, gender, education, employment, and body height, except for Turkish individuals. Regardless of diabetes status, obesity and physical inactivity were prevalent in the majority of ethnic minority groups, whereas systolic- and diastolic- blood pressures were higher in Norwegians. In nearly all ethnic groups, individuals with diabetes had higher triglycerides, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and body mass index compared to individuals without diabetes. Age, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and WHR were significant predictors of CVD in both ethnic Norwegians and ethnic minorities, but significant ethnic differences were found for age, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Ethnic differences in the prevalence of CVD were prominent for individuals without diabetes. Primary CVD prevention including identification of undiagnosed diabetes should be prioritized for ethnic minorities without known diabetes.</p

Which interventions offer best value for money in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease?

BackgroundDespite many decades of declining mortality rates in the Western world, cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. In this research we evaluate the optimal mix of lifestyle, pharmaceutical and population-wide interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.Methods and FindingsIn a discrete time Markov model we simulate the ischaemic heart disease and stroke outcomes and cost impacts of intervention over the lifetime of all Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Best value for money is achieved by mandating moderate limits on salt in the manufacture of bread, margarine and cereal. A combination of diuretic, calcium channel blocker, ACE inhibitor and low-cost statin, for everyone with at least 5% five-year risk of cardiovascular disease, is also cost-effective, but lifestyle interventions aiming to change risky dietary and exercise behaviours are extremely poor value for money and have little population health benefit.ConclusionsThere is huge potential for improving efficiency in cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia. A tougher approach from Government to mandating limits on salt in processed foods and reducing excessive statin prices, and a shift away from lifestyle counselling to more efficient absolute risk-based prescription of preventive drugs, could cut health care costs while improving population health.<br /

Development and pilot of an internationally standardized measure of cardiovascular risk management in European primary care

Contains fulltext : 97806.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Primary care can play an important role in providing cardiovascular risk management in patients with established Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD), patients with a known high risk of developing CVD, and potentially for individuals with a low risk of developing CVD, but who have unhealthy lifestyles. To describe and compare cardiovascular risk management, internationally valid quality indicators and standardized measures are needed. As part of a large project in 9 European countries (EPA-Cardio), we have developed and tested a set of standardized measures, linked to previously developed quality indicators. METHODS: A structured stepwise procedure was followed to develop measures. First, the research team allocated 106 validated quality indicators to one of the three target populations (established CVD, at high risk, at low risk) and to different data-collection methods (data abstraction from the medical records, a patient survey, an interview with lead practice GP/a practice survey). Secondly, we selected a number of other validated measures to enrich the assessment. A pilot study was performed to test the feasibility. Finally, we revised the measures based on the findings. RESULTS: The EPA-Cardio measures consisted of abstraction forms from the medical-records data of established Coronary Heart Disease (CHD)-patients--and high-risk groups, a patient questionnaire for each of the 3 groups, an interview questionnaire for the lead GP and a questionnaire for practice teams. The measures were feasible and accepted by general practices from different countries. CONCLUSIONS: An internationally standardized measure of cardiovascular risk management, linked to validated quality indicators and tested for feasibility in general practice, is now available. Careful development and pilot testing of the measures are crucial in international studies of quality of healthcare

Cell Walls of Saccharomyces cerevisiae Differentially Modulated Innate Immunity and Glucose Metabolism during Late Systemic Inflammation

BACKGROUND: Salmonella causes acute systemic inflammation by using its virulence factors to invade the intestinal epithelium. But, prolonged inflammation may provoke severe body catabolism and immunological diseases. Salmonella has become more life-threatening due to emergence of multiple-antibiotic resistant strains. Mannose-rich oligosaccharides (MOS) from cells walls of Saccharomyces cerevisiae have shown to bind mannose-specific lectin of Gram-negative bacteria including Salmonella, and prevent their adherence to intestinal epithelial cells. However, whether MOS may potentially mitigate systemic inflammation is not investigated yet. Moreover, molecular events underlying innate immune responses and metabolic activities during late inflammation, in presence or absence of MOS, are unknown. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a Salmonella LPS-induced systemic inflammation chicken model and microarray analysis, we investigated the effects of MOS and virginiamycin (VIRG, a sub-therapeutic antibiotic) on innate immunity and glucose metabolism during late inflammation. Here, we demonstrate that MOS and VIRG modulated innate immunity and metabolic genes differently. Innate immune responses were principally mediated by intestinal IL-3, but not TNF-α, IL-1 or IL-6, whereas glucose mobilization occurred through intestinal gluconeogenesis only. MOS inherently induced IL-3 expression in control hosts. Consequent to LPS challenge, IL-3 induction in VIRG hosts but not differentially expressed in MOS hosts revealed that MOS counteracted LPS's detrimental inflammatory effects. Metabolic pathways are built to elucidate the mechanisms by which VIRG host's higher energy requirements were met: including gene up-regulations for intestinal gluconeogenesis (PEPCK) and liver glycolysis (ENO2), and intriguingly liver fatty acid synthesis through ATP citrate synthase (CS) down-regulation and ATP citrate lyase (ACLY) and malic enzyme (ME) up-regulations. However, MOS host's lower energy demands were sufficiently met through TCA citrate-derived energy, as indicated by CS up-regulation. CONCLUSIONS: MOS terminated inflammation earlier than VIRG and reduced glucose mobilization, thus representing a novel biological strategy to alleviate Salmonella-induced systemic inflammation in human and animal hosts