Inundaciones y cambio climático

Las inundaciones de los ríos han sucedido de forma tradicional en numerosos ríos de la Península Ibérica, aportando grandes beneficios en la agricultura y en la disponibilidad de recursos hídricos, pero en la historia más reciente han originado graves daños en personas y bienes haciendo que hoy día predomine una percepción de las inundaciones como “catástrofes”. En el origen del incremento de la frecuencia de las inundaciones hay que mencionar la intensificación del uso del territorio, sellando y compactando los suelos haciendo que aumenten las escorrentías rápidas, y la alteración hidromorfológica de los ríos, concentrando las aguas y favoreciendo la ocurrencia de avenidas y desbordamientos. En el incremento exponencial de las pérdidas que las inundaciones han originado en los últimos años hay que referirse a la intensa ocupación de las riberas de los ríos y sus llanuras de inundación por personas y actividades económicas, con un desarrollo en dichas zonas no compatible con la dinámica fluvial. El cambio climático es considerado un factor de riesgo adicional muy variable según las regiones, y la estimación de sus efectos sobre las inundaciones presenta todavía numerosas incertidumbres. Atendiendo a ello se revisan algunos estudios e informes relacionados con el fenómeno de las inundaciones y su posible relación con el cambio climático, y se propone la restauración de los sistemas fluviales y la restricción de usos en las zonas inundables como estrategias más acertadas para hacer frente a la mencionada problemática de las inundaciones y a la incertidumbre creada con el cambio climático. El análisis de los sucesivos paradigmas históricos planteados por el hombre frente a las inundaciones de los ríos pone en evidencia el interés de cambiar unas estrategias de “defensa” en contra de ellas, tratando de evitar que ocurran, por otras de “convivencia” con las mismas gestionando de la forma más apropiada el riesgo de los daños que pueden generar, atendiendo al espíritu de las Directivas europeas Marco del Agua y de evaluación y gestión del riesgo de la inundación

The contribution of cannabis use to the increased psychosis risk among minority ethnic groups in Europe

Background: We examined whether cannabis use contributes to the increased risk of psychotic disorder for non-western minorities in Europe. Methods: We used data from the EU-GEI study (collected at sites in Spain, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands) on 825 first-episode patients and 1026 controls. We estimated the odds ratio (OR) of psychotic disorder for several groups of migrants compared with the local reference population, without and with adjustment for measures of cannabis use. Results: The OR of psychotic disorder for non-western minorities, adjusted for age, sex, and recruitment area, was 1.80 (95% CI 1.39-2.33). Further adjustment of this OR for frequency of cannabis use had a minimal effect: OR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.38-2.37). The same applied to adjustment for frequency of use of high-potency cannabis. Likewise, adjustments of ORs for most sub-groups of non-western countries had a minimal effect. There were two exceptions. For the Black Caribbean group in London, after adjustment for frequency of use of high-potency cannabis the OR decreased from 2.45 (95% CI 1.25-4.79) to 1.61 (95% CI 0.74-3.51). Similarly, the OR for Surinamese and Dutch Antillean individuals in Amsterdam decreased after adjustment for daily use: from 2.57 (95% CI 1.07-6.15) to 1.67 (95% CI 0.62-4.53). Conclusions: The contribution of cannabis use to the excess risk of psychotic disorder for non-western minorities was small. However, some evidence of an effect was found for people of Black Caribbean heritage in London and for those of Surinamese and Dutch Antillean heritage in Amsterdam

Self-reported suicidal ideation among individuals with first episode psychosis and healthy controls:Findings from the international multicentre EU-GEI study

Introduction: Suicidal ideation is common among individuals with first episode psychosis (FEP), with prevalence estimates up to 56.5 %. Despite its high prevalence, relatively little is known about how sociodemographic, clinical and/or developmental characteristics contribute to the experience of suicidal ideation in individuals with FEP. Methods: In this cross-sectional study (FEP n = 551 and controls n = 857), univariate logistic regression analyses were performed to study the associations of sociodemographic, clinical, and developmental factors with suicidal ideation in individuals with FEP as well as controls. Suicidal ideation was assessed using the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences (CAPE). In addition, multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted based on a stepwise approach. Results: In FEP, only depressive symptoms remained significantly associated with suicidal ideation when all correlates were integrated into one model. In the multivariate model in controls, depressive symptoms, positive symptoms, and traumatic childhood experiences were significantly associated with suicidal ideation. Conclusions: This study showed that depressive symptoms are an important factor relating to suicidal ideation in individuals with FEP, over and above other clinical, sociodemographic, and developmental factors. This underscores the relevance of screening for suicidal ideation in individuals with FEP, and highlights the need for a better understanding of the diagnostic uncertainty and course of mood symptoms in early psychosis. Limitations: Cross-sectional study design, self-reported questionnaires.</p

Treated Incidence of Psychotic Disorders in the Multinational EU-GEI Study

Importance: Psychotic disorders contribute significantly to the global disease burden, yet the latest international incidence study of psychotic disorders was conducted in the 1980s. Objectives: To estimate the incidence of psychotic disorders using comparable methods across 17 catchment areas in 6 countries and to examine the variance between catchment areas by putative environmental risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: An international multisite incidence study (the European Network of National Schizophrenia Networks Studying Gene-Environment Interactions) was conducted from May 1, 2010, to April 1, 2015, among 2774 individuals from England (2 catchment areas), France (3 catchment areas), Italy (3 catchment areas), the Netherlands (2 catchment areas), Spain (6 catchment areas), and Brazil (1 catchment area) with a first episode of nonorganic psychotic disorders (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision [ICD-10] codes F20-F33) confirmed by the Operational Criteria Checklist. Denominator populations were estimated using official national statistics. Exposures: Age, sex, and racial/ethnic minority status were treated as a priori confounders. Latitude, population density, percentage unemployment, owner-occupied housing, and single-person households were treated as catchment area-level exposures. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incidence of nonorganic psychotic disorders (ICD-10 codes F20-F33), nonaffective psychoses (ICD-10 codes F20-F29), and affective psychoses (ICD-10 codes F30-F33) confirmed by the Operational Criteria Checklist. Results: A total of 2774 patients (1196 women and 1578 men; median age, 30.5 years [interquartile range, 23.0-41.0 years]) with incident cases of psychotic disorders were identified during 12.9 million person-years at risk (crude incidence, 21.4 per 100 000 person-years; 95% CI, 19.4-23.4 per 100 000 person-years). A total of 2183 patients (78.7%) had nonaffective psychotic disorders. After direct standardization for age, sex, and racial/ethnic minority status, an 8-fold variation was seen in the incidence of all psychotic disorders, from 6.0 (95% CI, 3.5-8.6) per 100 000 person-years in Santiago, Spain, to 46.1 (95% CI, 37.3-55.0) per 100 000 person-years in Paris, France. Rates were elevated in racial/ethnic minority groups (incidence rate ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.5-1.7), were highest for men 18 to 24 years of age, and were lower in catchment areas with more owner-occupied homes (incidence rate ratio, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.7-0.8). Similar patterns were observed for nonaffective psychoses; a lower incidence of affective psychoses was associated with higher area-level unemployment (incidence rate ratio, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.2-0.5). Conclusions and Relevance: This study confirmed marked heterogeneity in risk for psychotic disorders by person and place, including higher rates in younger men, racial/ethnic minorities, and areas characterized by a lower percentage of owner-occupied houses.The European Network of National Schizophrenia Networks Studying Gene-Environment Interactions (EU-GEI) Project is funded by grant agreement HEALTH-F2-2010-241909 (Project EU-GEI) from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme. The Brazilian study was funded by grant 2012/0417-0 from the São Paulo Research Foundation. Dr Kirkbride is funded by the Wellcome Trust and grant 101272/Z/13/Z from the Royal Society. Ms Jongsma and Dr Jones are funded by the National Institute of Health Research Collaboration of Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care East of England

Distribution and genetic variation of hymenolepidid cestodes in murid rodents on the Canary Islands (Spain)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the Canary Islands there are no previous data about tapeworms (Cestoda) of rodents. In order to identify the hymenolepidid species present in these hosts, a survey of 1,017 murine (349 <it>Rattus rattus</it>, 13 <it>Rattus norvegicus </it>and 655 <it>Mus musculus domesticus</it>) was carried out in the whole Archipelago. Molecular studies based on nuclear <it>ITS1 </it>and mitochondrial <it>COI </it>loci were performed to confirm the identifications and to analyse the levels of genetic variation and differentiation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Three species of hymenolepidids were identified: <it>Hymenolepis diminuta</it>, <it>Rodentolepis microstoma </it>and <it>Rodentolepis fraterna</it>. <it>Hymenolepis diminuta </it>(in rats) and <it>R. microstoma </it>(in mice) showed a widespread distribution in the Archipelago, and <it>R. fraterna </it>was the least spread species, appearing only on five of the islands. The hymenolepidids found on Fuerteventura, Lanzarote and La Graciosa were restricted to one area. The <it>COI </it>network of <it>H. diminuta </it>showed that the haplotypes from Lanzarote and Fuerteventura are the most distant with respect to the other islands, but clearly related among them.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Founder effects and biotic and abiotic factors could have played important role in the presence/absence of the hymenolepidid species in determined locations. The haplotypes from the eastern islands (Fuerteventura and Lanzarote) seem to have shared an ancestral haplotype very distant from the most frequent one that was found in the rest of the islands. Two colonization events or a single event with subsequent isolation and reduced gene flow between western-central and eastern islands, have taken place in the Archipelago. The three tapeworms detected are zoonotic species, and their presence among rodents from this Archipelago suggests a potential health risk to human via environmental contamination in high risk areas. However, the relatively low prevalence of infestations detected and the focal distribution of some of these species on certain islands reduce the general transmission risk to human.</p

Genetic and psychosocial stressors have independent effects on the level of subclinical psychosis: findings from the multinational EU-GEI study

Aims: Gene x environment (G×E) interactions, i.e. genetic modulation of the sensitivity to environmental factors and/or environmental control of the gene expression, have not been reliably established regarding aetiology of psychotic disorders. Moreover, recent studies have shown associations between the polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia (PRS-SZ) and some risk factors of psychotic disorders, challenging the traditional gene v. environment dichotomy. In the present article, we studied the role of GxE interaction between psychosocial stressors (childhood trauma, stressful life-events, self-reported discrimination experiences and low social capital) and the PRS-SZ on subclinical psychosis in a population-based sample. Methods: Data were drawn from the EUropean network of national schizophrenia networks studying Gene-Environment Interactions (EU-GEI) study, in which subjects without psychotic disorders were included in six countries. The sample was restricted to European descendant subjects (n = 706). Subclinical dimensions of psychosis (positive, negative, and depressive) were measured by the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences (CAPE) scale. Associations between the PRS-SZ and the psychosocial stressors were tested. For each dimension, the interactions between genes and environment were assessed using linear models and comparing explained variances of 'Genetic' models (solely fitted with PRS-SZ), 'Environmental' models (solely fitted with each environmental stressor), 'Independent' models (with PRS-SZ and each environmental factor), and 'Interaction' models (Independent models plus an interaction term between the PRS-SZ and each environmental factor). Likelihood ration tests (LRT) compared the fit of the different models. Results: There were no genes-environment associations. PRS-SZ was associated with positive dimensions (β = 0.092, R2 = 7.50%), and most psychosocial stressors were associated with all three subclinical psychotic dimensions (except social capital and positive dimension). Concerning the positive dimension, Independent models fitted better than Environmental and Genetic models. No significant GxE interaction was observed for any dimension. Conclusions: This study in subjects without psychotic disorders suggests that (i) the aetiological continuum hypothesis could concern particularly the positive dimension of subclinical psychosis, (ii) genetic and environmental factors have independent effects on the level of this positive dimension, (iii) and that interactions between genetic and individual environmental factors could not be identified in this sample

Estimating Exposome Score for Schizophrenia Using Predictive Modeling Approach in Two Independent Samples: The Results From the EUGEI Study

Exposures constitute a dense network of the environment: exposome. Here, we argue for embracing the exposome paradigm to investigate the sum of nongenetic "risk" and show how predictive modeling approaches can be used to construct an exposome score (ES; an aggregated score of exposures) for schizophrenia. The training dataset consisted of patients with schizophrenia and controls, whereas the independent validation dataset consisted of patients, their unaffected siblings, and controls. Binary exposures were cannabis use, hearing impairment, winter birth, bullying, and emotional, physical, and sexual abuse along with physical and emotional neglect. We applied logistic regression (LR), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Ridge penalized classification models to the training dataset. ESs, the sum of weighted exposures based on coefficients from each model, were calculated in the validation dataset. In addition, we estimated ES based on meta-analyses and a simple sum score of exposures. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic, and Nagelkerke's R2 were compared. The ESMeta-analyses performed the worst, whereas the sum score and the ESGNB were worse than the ESLR that performed similar to the ESLASSO and ESRIDGE. The ESLR distinguished patients from controls (odds ratio [OR] = 1.94, P < .001), patients from siblings (OR = 1.58, P < .001), and siblings from controls (OR = 1.21, P = .001). An increase in ESLR was associated with a gradient increase of schizophrenia risk. In reference to the remaining fractions, the ESLR at top 30%, 20%, and 10% of the control distribution yielded ORs of 3.72, 3.74, and 4.77, respectively. Our findings demonstrate that predictive modeling approaches can be harnessed to evaluate the exposome