Notas para el estudio de campañas electorales

Las campañas electorales constituyen el periodo por excelencia de movilización de formaciones políticas con el objetivo de pedir el voto a los electores. Para ello, los partidos políticos, federaciones, coaliciones o agrupaciones de electores planifican la estrategia a seguir y las actuaciones a llevar a cabo para poder conseguir un mayor número de sufragios. El periodo oficial establecido de campaña electoral coincide con el último momento donde se procede a dar a conocer propuestas e ideas con el fin de optar a conseguir los objetivos electorales propuestos con anterioridad. En este sentido, la planificación sobre las campañas electorales suele comenzar cuando se designan los candidatos a las respectivas instituciones, procediendo a presentar a los designados, comenzando la movilización externa de la formación política que se trate. En este caso, se expone un modelo de planificación local de campañas electorales que responde a la idea de elaborar campañas electorales permanentes.Election campaigns are the excellence time for political mobilization in order to ask the voters to vote. For this, political parties, federations, coalitions or groups of voters planned to follow the strategy and actions to be carried out in order to achieve a greater number of votes. The officially established period of election campaign coincides with the last time where appropriate to disclose proposals and ideas to decide to meet the objectives proposed electoral advance. In this regard the planning of the campaign usually begins when candidates are referred to the respective institutions, and proceeded to present to the designated starting external mobilization of political formation in question. In this case presents a model of local campaign planning that responds to the idea of developing permanent campaign

Government and Politics in Oceania: The Federal Republic of Palau

Palaos, el último país en alcanzar la independencia en el océano Pacífico, es un Estado con una gran influencia estadounidense en su sistema político. Unas islas que han formado parte de diversos países a lo largo de su historia y al igual que otros archipiélagos de Oceanía carece de partidos políticos. Un poder legislativo con dos cámaras igualmente relevantes con la capacidad de remover a las más altas instituciones del Estado y donde los ciudadanos tienen gran control sobre sus dirigentes políticos pudiendo separarles de su escaño. En esta ponencia se analiza la situación política y electoral de Palaos, desde un punto de vista descriptivo, clarificando la importancia de la historia y las tradiciones para reflexionar sobre la situación actual del Estado.Palau, the last country to achieve the independence in the Pacific Ocean, is a state with a large American influence in its political system. These islands have been part of many countries throughout their history and like other islands of Oceania has no political parties. A legislature with two chambers equally relevant with the ability to remove the highest institutions of the state and where citizens have great control over their political leaders because they can separate them from their seats. In this paper political and electoral situation of Palau is analyzed from a descriptive point of view, clarifying the importance of history and traditions to reflect on the current situation of the state

Aproximación a los partidos políticos supraestatales de Europa : dificultades, retos y oportunidades

La Unión Europea ha supuesto un proyecto transnacional de Estados de Europa que avanza en la integración de sus miembros. En ese mismo ámbito se han desarrollado instituciones comunitarias como el Parlamento Europeo, en el que los partidos políticos estatales han participado en esta nueva arena política estando presentes en las elecciones a la cámara comunitaria desde 1979. Desde esa fecha, los partidos políticos estatales han comenzado a construir organizaciones partidistas europeas con el objetivo de coordinar la actuación de partidos de similar signo ideológico en el Parlamento Europeo. En la presente ponencia se analiza la situación de las organizaciones partidistas europeas para crear partidos políticos supraestatales, atendiendo a sus características, y dificultades, así como los retos y oportunidades que pueden afronta

Fractional differencing in stock market price and online presence of global tourist corporations

Purpose – This work aims to explore the behavior of stock market prices according to the autoregressive fractional differencing integrated moving average model. This behavior will be compared with a measure of online presence, search engine results as measured by Google Trends. Design/methodology/approach – The study sample is comprised by the companies listed at the STOXX® Global 3000 Travel and Leisure.Google Finance and Yahoo Finance, along with Google Trends, were used, respectively, to obtain the data of stock prices and search results, for a period offive years (October 2012 to October 2017). To guarantee certain comparability between the two data sets, weekly observations were collected,with a total figure of 118 firms, two time series each (price and search results), around 61,000 observations. Findings – Relationships between the two data sets are explored, with theoretical implications for the field sof economics, finance and management. Tourist corporations were analyzed owing to their growing economic impact. The estimations are initially consistent with long memory; so, they suggest that both stock marketprices and online search trends deserve further exploration for modeling and forecasting. Significant differences owing to country and sector effects are also shown. Originality/value – This research contributes in two different ways: it demonstrate the potential of a new tool for the analysis of relevant time series to monitor the behavior of firms and markets, and it suggests several theoretical pathways for further research in the specific topics of asymmetry of information and corporate transparency, proposing pertinent bridges between the two fields.Objetivo - Este trabajo tiene como objetivo explorar el comportamiento de los precios del mercado de valores de acuerdo con el modelo de media móvil integrado de diferenciación fraccional autorregresiva. Este comportamiento se comparará con una medida de presencia en línea, los resultados del motor de búsqueda medidos por Google Trends. Diseño / metodología / enfoque - La muestra del estudio está compuesta por las empresas que figuran en STOXX® Global 3000 Travel and Leisure. Se utilizaron Google Finance y Yahoo Finance, junto con Google Trends, respectivamente, para obtener los datos de precios de las acciones y resultados de búsqueda, por un período de cinco años (octubre de 2012 a octubre de 2017). Para garantizar cierta comparabilidad entre los dos conjuntos de datos, se recopilaron observaciones semanales, con una cifra total de 118 empresas, dos series de tiempo cada una (precio y resultados de búsqueda), alrededor de 61.000 observaciones. Recomendaciones - Se exploran las relaciones entre los dos conjuntos de datos, con implicaciones teóricas para los campos de la economía, las finanzas y la gestión. Se analizaron las corporaciones turísticas por su creciente impacto económico. Las estimaciones son inicialmente consistentes con una memoria larga; por lo tanto, sugieren que tanto los precios del mercado de valores como las tendencias de búsqueda en línea merecen una mayor exploración para modelar y pronosticar. También se muestran diferencias significativas debido a los efectos por países y sectores. Originalidad / valor - Esta investigación contribuye de dos maneras diferentes: demuestra el potencial de una nueva herramienta para el análisis de series de tiempo relevantes para monitorear el comportamiento de empresas y mercados, y sugiere varias vías teóricas para futuras investigaciones en los temas específicos de asimetría de información y transparencia empresarial, proponiendo puentes pertinentes entre los dos campos

Emerging Practices in Facebook at National Parks

The main purpose of this paper is to contribute to analyze recent data about the behavior of national park administrations on Facebook. As public organizations, they endeavor to proactively communicate information to citizens, promoting transparency and accountability. It is important to study the case of national parks because of their relevant role in preserving natural and cultural heritage and promoting a very rich scenario of policy-making and responsible local and global citizenship. Some insights have arisen for political management of these institutions. According to the analysis of the results, it is shown that there exists a significant presence of these entities in Facebook, even if this type of communication is perhaps in its infancy. The results suggest that a potential factor (country in which each park is located and the corresponding administration style) exists, in order to explain significant differences between parks.JEL Codes - D8; R5; Z1; Z

Instagram: Balancing Information Asymmetry of the Tourism Industry

This study focuses on the use of Instagram by tourism companies. Specifically, it aims to analyze how Instagram empowers individuals over corporations in the digital dialogue, thus balancing the information asymmetry between corporations and stakeholders. Four categories of metrics have been collected to analyze the use of Instagram by companies: presence, impact, conversation, and influence. Additionally, OLS regressions have been performed to identify potential explanatory factors to explain the different behavior of each firm and its corresponding communities. While the use of Instagram by the selected firms is still scarce, significant results are as follows: corporations are using Instagram as an additional channel in their current communication; some explanatory factors account for significant differences in countries, size, and industries; and users are somehow reactive to the stream of pictures and texts disclosed by firms. The presence and impact of companies on Instagram are a highly important source for driving stakeholders’ conversation within the digital arena

Assessment of the 3rd Drug Dependence Canary Plan: an Example for the Development of Public Policies

El presente trabajo muestra el proceso seguido para la elaboración de la evaluación del III Plan Canario sobre Drogodependencias, publicada en el año 2018 y que ha servido de base para el vigente IV Plan Canario de Adicciones (2020-2024). La importancia de esta evalua- ción radica en que se ha aplicado un sistema basado en una triangulación metodológica destinada a solventar diferentes obstáculos relacionados con el seguimiento de los contenidos del III Plan, tanto a la hora de ejecutar las acciones en materia de prevención como trata- miento de drogas. Para ello, se han tenido en cuenta diferentes recomendaciones en materia de evaluación, así como las competencias que tienen las diferentes Administraciones Públicas en materia de adicciones. Por tanto, la realización del III Plan Canario sobre Drogas se ha llevado a cabo aplicando diversas técnicas de investigación social al proceso de evaluación.This paper shows the process followed to prepare the evaluation of the III Canary Plan on Drug Addiction, published in 2018 and which has served as the basis for the current IV Canary Plan on Addictions (2020-2024). The importance of this evaluation is that a system has been applied based on an adequate methodological triangulation aimed at solving different obstacles related to the adequate monitoring of the contents of the III Plan, both when executing the actions in terms of prevention and drug treatment. To this end, different recommendations regarding evaluation were taken into account at all times, as well as the different powers that the different Public Administrations have in terms of addictions. Therefore, by applying different social research techniques to the evaluation process, it was possible to carry out the evaluation of the III Canary Plan on Drug Addiction

Treatment with tocilizumab or corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammatory state: a multicentre cohort study (SAM-COVID-19)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between tocilizumab or corticosteroids and the risk of intubation or death in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) with a hyperinflammatory state according to clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: A cohort study was performed in 60 Spanish hospitals including 778 patients with COVID-19 and clinical and laboratory data indicative of a hyperinflammatory state. Treatment was mainly with tocilizumab, an intermediate-high dose of corticosteroids (IHDC), a pulse dose of corticosteroids (PDC), combination therapy, or no treatment. Primary outcome was intubation or death; follow-up was 21 days. Propensity score-adjusted estimations using Cox regression (logistic regression if needed) were calculated. Propensity scores were used as confounders, matching variables and for the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs). Results: In all, 88, 117, 78 and 151 patients treated with tocilizumab, IHDC, PDC, and combination therapy, respectively, were compared with 344 untreated patients. The primary endpoint occurred in 10 (11.4%), 27 (23.1%), 12 (15.4%), 40 (25.6%) and 69 (21.1%), respectively. The IPTW-based hazard ratios (odds ratio for combination therapy) for the primary endpoint were 0.32 (95%CI 0.22-0.47; p < 0.001) for tocilizumab, 0.82 (0.71-1.30; p 0.82) for IHDC, 0.61 (0.43-0.86; p 0.006) for PDC, and 1.17 (0.86-1.58; p 0.30) for combination therapy. Other applications of the propensity score provided similar results, but were not significant for PDC. Tocilizumab was also associated with lower hazard of death alone in IPTW analysis (0.07; 0.02-0.17; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tocilizumab might be useful in COVID-19 patients with a hyperinflammatory state and should be prioritized for randomized trials in this situatio

The evolution of the ventilatory ratio is a prognostic factor in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 ARDS patients

Background: Mortality due to COVID-19 is high, especially in patients requiring mechanical ventilation. The purpose of the study is to investigate associations between mortality and variables measured during the first three days of mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19 intubated at ICU admission. Methods: Multicenter, observational, cohort study includes consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to 44 Spanish ICUs between February 25 and July 31, 2020, who required intubation at ICU admission and mechanical ventilation for more than three days. We collected demographic and clinical data prior to admission; information about clinical evolution at days 1 and 3 of mechanical ventilation; and outcomes. Results: Of the 2,095 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU, 1,118 (53.3%) were intubated at day 1 and remained under mechanical ventilation at day three. From days 1 to 3, PaO2/FiO2 increased from 115.6 [80.0-171.2] to 180.0 [135.4-227.9] mmHg and the ventilatory ratio from 1.73 [1.33-2.25] to 1.96 [1.61-2.40]. In-hospital mortality was 38.7%. A higher increase between ICU admission and day 3 in the ventilatory ratio (OR 1.04 [CI 1.01-1.07], p = 0.030) and creatinine levels (OR 1.05 [CI 1.01-1.09], p = 0.005) and a lower increase in platelet counts (OR 0.96 [CI 0.93-1.00], p = 0.037) were independently associated with a higher risk of death. No association between mortality and the PaO2/FiO2 variation was observed (OR 0.99 [CI 0.95 to 1.02], p = 0.47). Conclusions: Higher ventilatory ratio and its increase at day 3 is associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 receiving mechanical ventilation at ICU admission. No association was found in the PaO2/FiO2 variation

Clustering COVID-19 ARDS patients through the first days of ICU admission. An analysis of the CIBERESUCICOVID Cohort

Background Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) can be classified into sub-phenotypes according to different inflammatory/clinical status. Prognostic enrichment was achieved by grouping patients into hypoinflammatory or hyperinflammatory sub-phenotypes, even though the time of analysis may change the classification according to treatment response or disease evolution. We aimed to evaluate when patients can be clustered in more than 1 group, and how they may change the clustering of patients using data of baseline or day 3, and the prognosis of patients according to their evolution by changing or not the cluster.Methods Multicenter, observational prospective, and retrospective study of patients admitted due to ARDS related to COVID-19 infection in Spain. Patients were grouped according to a clustering mixed-type data algorithm (k-prototypes) using continuous and categorical readily available variables at baseline and day 3.Results Of 6205 patients, 3743 (60%) were included in the study. According to silhouette analysis, patients were grouped in two clusters. At baseline, 1402 (37%) patients were included in cluster 1 and 2341(63%) in cluster 2. On day 3, 1557(42%) patients were included in cluster 1 and 2086 (57%) in cluster 2. The patients included in cluster 2 were older and more frequently hypertensive and had a higher prevalence of shock, organ dysfunction, inflammatory biomarkers, and worst respiratory indexes at both time points. The 90-day mortality was higher in cluster 2 at both clustering processes (43.8% [n = 1025] versus 27.3% [n = 383] at baseline, and 49% [n = 1023] versus 20.6% [n = 321] on day 3). Four hundred and fifty-eight (33%) patients clustered in the first group were clustered in the second group on day 3. In contrast, 638 (27%) patients clustered in the second group were clustered in the first group on day 3.Conclusions During the first days, patients can be clustered into two groups and the process of clustering patients may change as they continue to evolve. This means that despite a vast majority of patients remaining in the same cluster, a minority reaching 33% of patients analyzed may be re-categorized into different clusters based on their progress. Such changes can significantly impact their prognosis