Financialized commodities and stock indices volatilities

We investigate the relationship between commodity returns and macroeconomic fluctuations. Using realized volatility at different series and different moving average windows in the eight financialized commodities and three stock indices (NASDAQ, DJIA and SP500), we find that the fluctuation of NASDAQ, DJIA and SP500 returns tend to be statistically significant in explaining the variation of volatilities of commodity returns. This finding is strong for all eight financialized commodities and at different returns series. However, the directions on how the index volatility affect the commodity volatility are different. Higher realized volatility of NASDAQ return causes lower realized volatility of financialized commodity returns while higher realized volatility of SP500 return causes higher realized volatility of financialized commodity return. DJIA has different directions in each series. Realizing that a lot of companies comprising NASDAQ and SP500 indices while only few companies comprising DJIA index, we conclude that our finding is consistent with the theory of well-diversified portfolio.peer-reviewe

PATTERNS OF ENVIRONMENTAL FECAL EXPOSURE AND ASSOCIATIONS WITH CHILDHOOD ILLNESS IN RURAL BANGLADESH: A LATENT CLASS ANALYSIS

Inadequate sanitation, contaminated water and poor hygiene contribute to childhood disease morbidity and mortality through enteric and respiratory illness, trachoma, soil-transmitted helminths, parasitic diseases, environmental enteropathy and malnutrition. Multiple fecal exposures present different combinations of risk factors in low-income settings with limited infrastructure and poor hygiene behaviors. Large scale programs aimed to improve sanitation have an inconclusive health impact. Implementers still lean towards combining water, sanitation and hygiene interventions, despite limited evidence of additional health benefits from combined approaches. The WASH Benefits Bangladesh study is a community-based cluster randomized trial in rural Bangladesh designed to assess the impact of single and combined water, sanitation, hygiene and nutrition interventions in single and combined interventions on child health. This dissertation aims to 1) assess the impact on respiratory illness on children under 3 years of age from single water, sanitation, hygiene and nutrition interventions when delivered alone or in combination; 2) identify sub groups of rural households that vary in risk for environmental fecal exposures using latent class analysis, 3) to examine whether the latent classes are associated with higher risks of childhood diarrheal and respiratory illness and 4) if water, sanitation, hygiene and nutrition interventions have differential impact in reducing disease prevalence across latent classes. We found that water, sanitation and hygiene interventions reduce respiratory illness in young children. The same benefit was observed when water, sanitation and hygiene interventions were successfully integrated with nutrition interventions. Latent class analysis identified four subgroups (1-4) with increasing environmental risk profiles based on household characteristics in rural Bangladesh. Groups with unfavorable environmental conditions were associated with lower socioeconomic status, income and education. We found an increased risk of diarrheal disease in all latent subgroups compared to the ‘1-most favorable’ class characterized by water sealed improved latrines, notably a 5-fold increase risk of diarrhea in the ‘4 most unfavorable’ group who did not have access to any latrines. For diarrheal diseases, we found reductions in reported diarrheal disease prevalence in index children following sanitation (S), handwashing (H), nutrition (N) and WSHN interventions compared to control households in the ‘3- unfavorable’ latent subgroup. This indicates that households with less sanitary conditions are more likely to benefit from interventions that reduce the transmission of pathogens. Single WASH interventions may be effective in reducing respiratory illness and should be prioritized with limited resources. We highlighted the use of understanding the clusters of exposures to ensure interventions are adequately aligned to be effective. In low-income countries, where competing fecal pathways exist, improved health impact might be more practically achieved using approaches such as latent class analysis that incorporate interactions between environmental and socio-economic factors to inform holistic intervention strategies

The asymmetric relationship between foreign direct investment, oil prices and carbon emissions: evidence from Gulf Cooperative Council economies

We investigate the asymmetric nonlinear link between foreign direct investment, oil prices, and CO2 emissions for the Gulf Cooperation Council nations, using foreign direct investment and oil price data. As foreign direct investment is positively associated with carbon emissions in the long run and oil prices have positive, significant effects on CO2 emissions, our findings support the pollution-haven hypothesis. Furthermore, these variables have an asymmetric nonlinear relationship, which corresponds to the theoretical expectations of the pollution-haven hypothesis. We also find that negative changes in foreign direct investment have positive, significant impacts on carbon emissions in the short run, implying that foreign enterprises utilize green technologies in their manufacturing processes in the short run. In the long run, however, negative changes in oil prices are positively associated with carbon emissions. These findings should help Gulf Cooperation Council economies focus on policies that encourage foreign direct investment in green rather than dirty industries in order to ensure environmental sustainability

Does global value chain participation induce economic growth? Evidence from panel threshold regression

We investigate the threshold effects of GVC participation and its disaggregated level (forward and backward participation) on economic growth for 62 economies for the period 2000–2018. Our paper is one of the first to analyse the multiple regime effects of GVC participation on economic growth. We find that GVC participation positively impacts economic growth in a country with higher economic growth in both the aggregate and disaggregate analysis. Contemporaneously, it is negatively associated with economic growth in countries with lower economic growth. The coefficient value of forward participation for lower growing economies is higher in the first and second regime than the backward participation, which implies that forward participation has more deleterious effects on economic growth in the less developed and developing economies. The growth effects of forward and backward participation indicate that both have different effects on economic growth in the moderate growing economies, which implies that the direction of GVC participation does matter in determining economic growth in the moderate growing economies

ANTI-INFLAMMATORY, ANTI-NOCICEPTIVE AND ANTIPYRETIC POTENTIAL OF TERMINALIA CITRINA FRUIT EXTRACTS

Background: Plants and herbs have long been used as remedies without scientific evidences. The objective of the present study was to explore the anti-inflammatory, anti-nociceptive and antipyretic potential of ethanolic and aqueous extracts of Terminalia citrina fruits in mice. Materials and Methods: Extracts of Terminalia citrina fruits were evaluated at doses of 200mg/kg, 400mg/kg and 600mg/kg in albino mice for preventive effect in inflammatory edema, peripheral pain sensation and pyrexia. Carrageenan induced paw edema method was utilized to evaluate anti-inflammatory activity. Analgesic appraisal of extracts was demonstrated using acetic acid induced writhing model of pain. Antipyretic potential was determined by brewer’s yeast induced pyrexia model. Statistical analysis was conducted by ANOVA following post hoc test. Results: Both extracts exhibited significant and dose-dependent anti-inflammatory, analgesic and antipyretic activities. The ethanolic extract was more effective in reducing inflammatory edema, pyrexia and pain sensation than aqueous extracts in all tested doses. Conclusion: It can be concluded that fruit extracts of Terminalia citrina may be effective in reducing inflammation, pyrexia and pain sensation in animals

Cluster-randomised controlled trials of individual and combined water, sanitation, hygiene and nutritional interventions in rural Bangladesh and Kenya: the WASH Benefits study design and rationale.

INTRODUCTION: Enteric infections are common during the first years of life in low-income countries and contribute to growth faltering with long-term impairment of health and development. Water quality, sanitation, handwashing and nutritional interventions can independently reduce enteric infections and growth faltering. There is little evidence that directly compares the effects of these individual and combined interventions on diarrhoea and growth when delivered to infants and young children. The objective of the WASH Benefits study is to help fill this knowledge gap. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: WASH Benefits includes two cluster-randomised trials to assess improvements in water quality, sanitation, handwashing and child nutrition-alone and in combination-to rural households with pregnant women in Kenya and Bangladesh. Geographically matched clusters (groups of household compounds in Bangladesh and villages in Kenya) will be randomised to one of six intervention arms or control. Intervention arms include water quality, sanitation, handwashing, nutrition, combined water+sanitation+handwashing (WSH) and WSH+nutrition. The studies will enrol newborn children (N=5760 in Bangladesh and N=8000 in Kenya) and measure outcomes at 12 and 24 months after intervention delivery. Primary outcomes include child length-for-age Z-scores and caregiver-reported diarrhoea. Secondary outcomes include stunting prevalence, markers of environmental enteropathy and child development scores (verbal, motor and personal/social). We will estimate unadjusted and adjusted intention-to-treat effects using semiparametric estimators and permutation tests. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Study protocols have been reviewed and approved by human subjects review boards at the University of California, Berkeley, Stanford University, the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, the Kenya Medical Research Institute, and Innovations for Poverty Action. Independent data safety monitoring boards in each country oversee the trials. This study is funded by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the University of California, Berkeley. REGISTRATION: Trial registration identifiers (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov): NCT01590095 (Bangladesh), NCT01704105 (Kenya)

WASH Benefits Bangladesh trial: system for monitoring coverage and quality in an efficacy trial.

BACKGROUND: Researchers typically report more on the impact of public health interventions and less on the degree to which interventions were followed implementation fidelity. We developed and measured fidelity indicators for the WASH Benefits Bangladesh study, a large-scale efficacy trial, in order to identify gaps between intended and actual implementation. METHODS: Community health workers (CHWs) delivered individual and combined water, sanitation, handwashing (WSH) and child nutrition interventions to 4169 enrolled households in geographically matched clusters. Households received free enabling technologies (insulated water storage container; sani-scoop, potty, double-pit, pour-flush latrine; handwashing station, soapy-water storage bottle), and supplies (chlorine tablets, lipid-based nutrient supplements, laundry detergent sachets) integrated with parallel behavior-change promotion. Behavioral objectives were drinking treated, safely stored water, safe feces disposal, handwashing with soap at key times, and age-appropriate nutrition behaviors. We administered monthly surveys and spot-checks to households from randomly selected clusters for 6 months early in the trial. If any fidelity measures fell below set benchmarks, a rapid response mechanism was triggered. RESULTS: In the first 3 months, functional water seals were detected in 33% (14/42) of latrines in the sanitation only arm; 35% (14/40) for the combined WSH arm; and 60% (34/57) for the combined WSH and Nutrition arm, all falling below the pre-set benchmark of 80%. Other fidelity indicators met the 65 to 80% uptake benchmarks. Rapid qualitative investigations determined that households concurrently used their own latrines with broken water seals in parallel with those provided by the trial. In consultation with the households, we closed pre-existing latrines without water seals, increased the CHWs' visit frequency to encourage correct maintenance of latrines with water seals, and discouraged water-seal removal or breakage. At the sixth assessment, 86% (51/59) of households were in sanitation only; 92% (72/78) in the combined WSH; and 93% (71/76) in the combined WSH and Nutrition arms had latrines with functional water seals. CONCLUSIONS: An intensive implementation fidelity monitoring and rapid response system proved beneficial for this efficacy trial. To implement a routine program at scale requires further research into an adaptation of fidelity monitoring that supports program effectiveness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: WASH Benefits Bangladesh: ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT01590095 . Registered on 30 April 2012

Why small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements should be integrated into comprehensive strategies to prevent child undernutrition in nutritionally vulnerable populations : response to Gupta et al.’s commentary

We write in response to the commentary by Gupta et al. (2023) on small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) for infants and young children 6 to 24 months of age, which was prompted by the recent brief guidance note from UNICEF (2023) explaining when, why and how SQ-LNS are being prioritized as part of their package of preventive actions to combat early childhood malnutrition. The UNICEF document was disseminated shortly after publication of a correspondence in Nature Food (Aguayo et al. 2023), authored by nutrition leaders from several organizations, that summarized the evidence on the benefits of SQ-LNS and called for this intervention to be scaled up and integrated into programs for populations in which child undernutrition is prevalent and dietary quality is very poor. We agree with Gupta et al. that child malnutrition is the result of many factors and there is no single “quick fix” or “magic bullet”. In fact, the above-cited documents state clearly and frequently that provision of SQ-LNS is not a stand-alone intervention and must be integrated into comprehensive strategies to improve infant and young child feeding (IYCF), including the promotion of dietary diversity, as well as other actions needed to prevent malnutrition. SQ-LNS are intended for vulnerable populations who lack access to an affordable, nutritionally adequate complementary feeding diet and have high rates of stunting, wasting and mortality. In such populations, we agree with Gupta et al. that IYCF messages alone are not enough. This is precisely why SQ-LNS were originally developed

Effects of water quality, sanitation, handwashing, and nutritional interventions on diarrhoea and child growth in rural Bangladesh: a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea and growth faltering in early childhood are associated with subsequent adverse outcomes. We aimed to assess whether water quality, sanitation, and handwashing interventions alone or combined with nutrition interventions reduced diarrhoea or growth faltering. METHODS: The WASH Benefits Bangladesh cluster-randomised trial enrolled pregnant women from villages in rural Bangladesh and evaluated outcomes at 1-year and 2-years' follow-up. Pregnant women in geographically adjacent clusters were block-randomised to one of seven clusters: chlorinated drinking water (water); upgraded sanitation (sanitation); promotion of handwashing with soap (handwashing); combined water, sanitation, and handwashing; counselling on appropriate child nutrition plus lipid-based nutrient supplements (nutrition); combined water, sanitation, handwashing, and nutrition; and control (data collection only). Primary outcomes were caregiver-reported diarrhoea in the past 7 days among children who were in utero or younger than 3 years at enrolment and length-for-age Z score among children born to enrolled pregnant women. Masking was not possible for data collection, but analyses were masked. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCC01590095. FINDINGS: Between May 31, 2012, and July 7, 2013, 5551 pregnant women in 720 clusters were randomly allocated to one of seven groups. 1382 women were assigned to the control group; 698 to water; 696 to sanitation; 688 to handwashing; 702 to water, sanitation, and handwashing; 699 to nutrition; and 686 to water, sanitation, handwashing, and nutrition. 331 (6%) women were lost to follow-up. Data on diarrhoea at year 1 or year 2 (combined) were available for 14 425 children (7331 in year 1, 7094 in year 2) and data on length-for-age Z score in year 2 were available for 4584 children (92% of living children were measured at year 2). All interventions had high adherence. Compared with a prevalence of 5·7% (200 of 3517 child weeks) in the control group, 7-day diarrhoea prevalence was lower among index children and children under 3 years at enrolment who received sanitation (61 [3·5%] of 1760; prevalence ratio 0·61, 95% CI 0·46-0·81), handwashing (62 [3·5%] of 1795; 0·60, 0·45-0·80), combined water, sanitation, and handwashing (74 [3·9%] of 1902; 0·69, 0·53-0·90), nutrition (62 [3·5%] of 1766; 0·64, 0·49-0·85), and combined water, sanitation, handwashing, and nutrition (66 [3·5%] of 1861; 0·62, 0·47-0·81); diarrhoea prevalence was not significantly lower in children receiving water treatment (90 [4·9%] of 1824; 0·89, 0·70-1·13). Compared with control (mean length-for-age Z score -1·79), children were taller by year 2 in the nutrition group (mean difference 0·25 [95% CI 0·15-0·36]) and in the combined water, sanitation, handwashing, and nutrition group (0·13 [0·02-0·24]). The individual water, sanitation, and handwashing groups, and combined water, sanitation, and handwashing group had no effect on linear growth. INTERPRETATION: Nutrient supplementation and counselling modestly improved linear growth, but there was no benefit to the integration of water, sanitation, and handwashing with nutrition. Adherence was high in all groups and diarrhoea prevalence was reduced in all intervention groups except water treatment. Combined water, sanitation, and handwashing interventions provided no additive benefit over single interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation