A comparison of inferential analysis methods for multilevel studies: implications for drawing conclusions in animal welfare science

Investigations comparing the behaviour and welfare of animals in different environments have led to mixed and often conflicting results. These could arise from genuine differences in welfare, poor validity of indicators, low statistical power, publication bias, or inappropriate statistical analysis. Our aim was to investigate the effects of using four approaches for inferential analysis of datasets of varying size on model outcomes and potential conclusions. We considered aggression in 864 growing pigs over six weeks as measured by ear and body injury score and relationships with: less and more enriched environments, pig's relative weight, and sex. Pigs were housed in groups of 18 in one of four pens, replicating the experiment 12 times. We applied four inferential models that either used a summary statistic approach, or else fully or partially accounted for complexities in study design. We tested models using both the full dataset (n = 864) and also using small sample sizes (n = 72). The most appropriate inferential model was a mixed effects, repeated measures model to compare ear and body score. Statistical models that did not acco unt for the correlation between repeated measures and/or the random effects from replications and pens led to spurious associations between environmental factors and indicators of aggression, which were not supported by the initial exploratory analysis. For analyses on smaller datasets (n = 72), due to the effect size and number of independent factors, there was insufficient power to determine statistically significant associations. Based on the mixed effects, repeated measures models, higher body injury scores were associated with more enrichment (coef. est. = 0.09, p = 0.02); weight (coef. est. = 0.05, p < 0.001); pen location on the right side (coef. est. = 0.08, p = 0.03) and at the front of the experimental room (coef. est. = 0.11, p = 0.003). By comparison, lower ear injury scores were associated with more enrichment (coef. est. = -0.51, p = 0.005) and pen location at the front of the experimental room (coef. est. = -0.4, p = 0.02). These observed differences support the hypothesis that injuries to the body and ears arise from different risk factors. Although calculation of the minimum required sample size prior to conducting an experiment and selection of the inferential analysis method will contribute to the validity of the study results, conflict between the outcomes will require further investigation via different methods such as sensitivity and specificity analysis

Temporal changes in the prevalence of childhood asthma and allergies in urban and rural areas of Cyprus: results from two cross sectional studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The prevalence of childhood asthma and allergies in Cyprus was significantly higher in urban compared to rural areas back in the year 2000, against a background of an overall low prevalence (e.g. current wheeze 6.9%) by comparison to northern European countries. In this study we aimed to assess temporal changes in the prevalence of asthma and allergies in Cyprus after an 8-year interval and to examine whether any differential changes have occurred in urban and rural parts of the island.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>During the academic years 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, the parents of 7-8 year old children residing in the same set of urban and rural areas completed the ISAAC core questionnaire. In addition to providing prevalence estimates of allergic diseases in 2000 and 2008, changes between the two periods were expressed as odds ratios estimated in multiple logistic regression models adjusting for survey participants' characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of current wheeze was higher in 2008 (8.7%, 95% confidence interval 7.5%-9.9%, n = 2216) than the previously recorded figure in 2000 (6.9%, 95% CI 6.2%-7.6%, OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.02-1.53, n = 4944). Significant increases were also seen in the prevalence of lifetime asthma (11.3% vs. 17.4%, OR = 1.59, CI: 1.36-1.86), eczema (6.8% vs. 13.5%, OR = 1.91, CI: 1.59-2.29) and allergic rhinoconjuctivitis (2.6% vs. 5.2%, OR = 1.82, CI: 1.39-2.41). The prevalence of current wheeze nearly doubled between 2000 and 2008 in rural areas (5.4% vs. 9.7%, OR 1.81, CI: 1.24-2.64) while no significant change was observed in urban areas (7.5% vs. 8.4%, OR 1.08, CI: 0.84-1.37); p value for effect modification = 0.04. Rises in asthma and rhinitis prevalence, but not eczema were also more pronounced in rural compared to urban areas.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The prevalence of allergic diseases in Cyprus is still on the rise; recent increases appear more pronounced among children living in rural areas possibly indicating recent environmental and lifestyle changes in these communities</p

A Review of Drowning Prevention Interventions for Children and Young People in High, Low and Middle Income Countries.

Globally, drowning is one of the ten leading causes of child mortality. Children aged <5 years are particularly at risk, and children and young people continue to be overrepresented in drowning statistics. Accordingly, evidence informed interventions to prevent children drowning are of global importance. This review aimed to identify, assess and analyse public health interventions to reduce child drowning and investigate the use of behavioural theories and evaluation frameworks to guide child drowning prevention. Thirteen databases were searched for relevant peer reviewed articles. The systematic review was guided by the PRISMA criteria and registered with PROSPERO. Fifteen articles were included in the final review. Studies were delivered in high, middle and low income countries. Intervention designs varied, one-third of studies targeted children under five. Almost half of the studies relied on education and information to reduce drowning deaths, only three studies used a multi-strategy approach. Minimal use of behavioural theories and/or frameworks was found and just one-third of the studies described formative evaluation. This review reveals an over reliance on education and information as a strategy to prevent drowning, despite evidence for comprehensive multi-strategy approaches. Accordingly, interventions must be supported that use a range of strategies, are shaped by theory and planning and evaluation frameworks, and are robust in intervention design, delivery and evaluation methodology. This approach will provide sound evidence that can be disseminated to inform future practice and policy for drowning prevention

Radiotherapy Versus Inguinofemoral Lymphadenectomy as Treatment for Vulvar Cancer Patients With Micrometastases in the Sentinel Node: Results of GROINSS-V II

PURPOSE: The Groningen International Study on Sentinel nodes in Vulvar cancer (GROINSS-V)-II investigated whether inguinofemoral radiotherapy is a safe alternative to inguinofemoral lymphadenectomy (IFL) in vulvar cancer patients with a metastatic sentinel node (SN). METHODS: GROINSS-V-II was a prospective multicenter phase-II single-arm treatment trial, including patients with early-stage vulvar cancer (diameter < 4 cm) without signs of lymph node involvement at imaging, who had primary surgical treatment (local excision with SN biopsy). Where the SN was involved (metastasis of any size), inguinofemoral radiotherapy was given (50 Gy). The primary end point was isolated groin recurrence rate at 24 months. Stopping rules were defined for the occurrence of groin recurrences. RESULTS: From December 2005 until October 2016, 1,535 eligible patients were registered. The SN showed metastasis in 322 (21.0%) patients. In June 2010, with 91 SN-positive patients included, the stopping rule was activated because the isolated groin recurrence rate in this group went above our predefined threshold. Among 10 patients with an isolated groin recurrence, nine had SN metastases > 2 mm and/or extracapsular spread. The protocol was amended so that those with SN macrometastases (> 2 mm) underwent standard of care (IFL), whereas patients with SN micrometastases (≤ 2 mm) continued to receive inguinofemoral radiotherapy. Among 160 patients with SN micrometastases, 126 received inguinofemoral radiotherapy, with an ipsilateral isolated groin recurrence rate at 2 years of 1.6%. Among 162 patients with SN macrometastases, the isolated groin recurrence rate at 2 years was 22% in those who underwent radiotherapy, and 6.9% in those who underwent IFL (P = .011). Treatment-related morbidity after radiotherapy was less frequent compared with IFL. CONCLUSION: Inguinofemoral radiotherapy is a safe alternative for IFL in patients with SN micrometastases, with minimal morbidity. For patients with SN macrometastasis, radiotherapy with a total dose of 50 Gy resulted in more isolated groin recurrences compared with IFL