Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs

Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future

Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs

Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future

Utilization of inhaled nitric oxide after surgical repair of truncus arteriosus: A multicenter analysis

BackgroundElevated pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) is common following repair of truncus arteriosus. Inhaled nitric oxide (iNO) is an effective yet costly therapy that is frequently implemented postoperatively to manage elevated PVR.ObjectivesWe aimed to describe practice patterns of iNO use in a multicenter cohort of patients who underwent repair of truncus arteriosus, a lesion in which recovery is often complicated by elevated PVR. We also sought to identify patient and center factors that were more commonly associated with the use of iNO in the postoperative period.DesignRetrospective cohort study.Setting15 tertiary care pediatric referral centers.PatientsAll infants who underwent definitive repair of truncus arteriosus without aortic arch obstruction between 2009 and 2016.InterventionsDescriptive statistics were used to demonstrate practice patterns of iNO use. Bivariate comparisons of characteristics of patients who did and did not receive iNO were performed, followed by multivariable mixed logistic regression analysis using backward elimination to identify independent predictors of iNO use.Main ResultsWe reviewed 216 patients who met inclusion criteria, of which 102 (46%) received iNO in the postoperative period: 69 (68%) had iNO started in the operating room and 33 (32%) had iNO initiated in the ICU. Median duration of iNO use was 4 days (range: 1‐21 days). In multivariable mixed logistic regression analysis, use of deep hypothermic circulatory arrest (odds ratio: 3.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.2, 8.4) and center (analyzed as a random effect, p = .02) were independently associated with iNO use.ConclusionsIn this contemporary multicenter study, nearly half of patients who underwent repair of truncus arteriosus received iNO postoperatively. Use of iNO was more dependent on individual center practice rather than patient characteristics. The study suggests a need for collaborative quality initiatives to determine optimal criteria for utilization of this important but expensive therapy.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/152533/1/chd12849_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/152533/2/chd12849.pd

Multicenter Analysis of Early Childhood Outcomes Following Repair of Truncus Arteriosus

Background Literature describing morbidity and mortality following truncus arteriosus repair is predominated by single-center reports. We created and analyzed a multicenter dataset to identify risk factors for late mortality and right ventricle-to-pulmonary artery (RV-PA) conduit reintervention for this patient population. Methods We retrospectively collected data on children who underwent repair of truncus arteriosus without concomitant arch obstruction at 15 centers between 2009 and 2016. Cox regression survival analysis was conducted to determine risk factors for late mortality, defined as death occurring after hospital discharge and greater than 30 days after surgery. Probability of any RV-PA conduit reintervention was analyzed over time using Fine-Gray modelling. Results We reviewed 216 patients, with median follow-up of 2.9 years (range:0.1-8.8). Operative mortaility occurred in 15 patients (7%). Of the 201 survivors, there were 14 (7%) late deaths. DiGeorge syndrome (HR:5.4; 95%CI:1.6-17.8) and need for postoperative tracheostomy (HR:5.9; 95%CI:1.8-19.4) were identified as independent risk factors for late mortality. At least one RV-PA conduit catheterization or surgical reintervention was performed in 109 patients (median time to reintervention:23 months, range:0.3-93). Risk factors for reintervention included use of pulmonary or aortic homografts versus Contegra® bovine jugular vein conduits (HR:1.9; 95%CI:1.2,3.1) and smaller conduit size (HR per mm/m2:1.05; 95%CI:1.03,1.08). Conclusions In a multicenter dataset, DiGeorge syndrome and need for tracheostomy postoperatively were found to be independent risk factors for late mortality after repair of truncus arteriosus, while risk of conduit reintervention was independently influenced by both initial conduit type and size

Team-taught versus individually taught undergraduate education: A qualitative study of student experiences and preferences

Team teaching is becoming more common in undergraduate programmes of study although the relative merits to the more traditional individually taught courses have not been determined for best practice. For this study, 15 final year undergraduate students were interviewed to gain insight into their learning experiences. A thematic analysis of the interview data identified the perceived advantages and disadvantages of each mode of teaching. The advantages of individually taught courses included: Consistency of content delivery and advice, Familiarity with the lecturer’s teaching style and better Continuity of the subject content. The disadvantage of individually taught modules included Missing knowledge, compared to a team approach. Advantages of team taught modules included: Greater insight into a topic delivered by multiple team members. Disadvantages included: Content overlap, Conflicting messages relating to assessment, team members not taking Ownership of their roles and responsibilities and a belief that overall Team failure is worse than individual failure to deliver a module well. The results revealed that individually taught modules were generally preferred to team taught modules. A set of best practice recommendations are proposed to address the challenges when delivering team-taught teaching and become more student focused

The Victorian Newsletter (Spring 1967)

The Victorian Newsletter is edited for the English X Group of the Modern Language Association by William E. Buckler, New York University, New York, N.Y. 10003

Distinguishing Binders from False Positives by Free Energy Calculations: Fragment Screening Against the Flap Site of HIV Protease

Molecular docking is a powerful tool used in drug discovery and structural biology for predicting the structures of ligand–receptor complexes. However, the accuracy of docking calculations can be limited by factors such as the neglect of protein reorganization in the scoring function; as a result, ligand screening can produce a high rate of false positive hits. Although absolute binding free energy methods still have difficulty in accurately rank-ordering binders, we believe that they can be fruitfully employed to distinguish binders from nonbinders and reduce the false positive rate. Here we study a set of ligands that dock favorably to a newly discovered, potentially allosteric site on the flap of HIV-1 protease. Fragment binding to this site stabilizes a closed form of protease, which could be exploited for the design of allosteric inhibitors. Twenty-three top-ranked protein–ligand complexes from AutoDock were subject to the free energy screening using two methods, the recently developed binding energy analysis method (BEDAM) and the standard double decoupling method (DDM). Free energy calculations correctly identified most of the false positives (≥83%) and recovered all the confirmed binders. The results show a gap averaging ≥3.7 kcal/mol, separating the binders and the false positives. We present a formula that decomposes the binding free energy into contributions from the receptor conformational macrostates, which provides insights into the roles of different binding modes. Our binding free energy component analysis further suggests that improving the treatment for the desolvation penalty associated with the unfulfilled polar groups could reduce the rate of false positive hits in docking. The current study demonstrates that the combination of docking with free energy methods can be very useful for more accurate ligand screening against valuable drug targets

Kualitas Hidup Pasien Diabetes Melitus Tipe 2 di Puskesmas Se Kota Kupang

Diabetes Mellitus is well known as a chronic disease which can lead to a decrease in quality of life in all domains. The study aims to explore the diabetic type 2 patient\u27s quality of life and find out the factors affecting in type 2 diabetic mellitus patients. The cross-sectional study design is used that included 65 patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus, in 11 public health centers of Kupang City. Data were collected by using Short Form Survey (SF-36) that assessed 8-scale health profile. Independent sample t-test is used to analyze the correlation between the factors affecting and the quality of life. the study showed that the QoL of DM patients decreased in all 8- health profile including physical functioning, social functioning, mental health, general health, pain, change in the role due to physical problems and emotional problems. The Study also showed there was a relationship between gender, duration of suffering from Diabetes mellitus, and complications to the quality of life. Male perceived a better quality of life than female

Rheumatoid arthritis - clinical aspects: 134. Predictors of Joint Damage in South Africans with Rheumatoid Arthritis

Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) causes progressive joint damage and functional disability. Studies on factors affecting joint damage as clinical outcome are lacking in Africa. The aim of the present study was to identify predictors of joint damage in adult South Africans with established RA. Methods: A cross-sectional study of 100 black patients with RA of >5 years were assessed for joint damage using a validated clinical method, the RA articular damage (RAAD) score. Potential predictors of joint damage that were documented included socio-demographics, smoking, body mass index (BMI), disease duration, delay in disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) initiation, global disease activity as measured by the disease activity score (DAS28), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C reactive protein (CRP), and autoantibody status. The predictive value of variables was assessed by univariate and stepwise multivariate regression analyses. A p value <0.05 was considered significant. Results: The mean (SD) age was 56 (9.8) years, disease duration 17.5 (8.5) years, educational level 7.5 (3.5) years and DMARD lag was 9 (8.8) years. Female to male ratio was 10:1. The mean (SD) DAS28 was 4.9 (1.5) and total RAAD score was 28.3 (12.8). The mean (SD) BMI was 27.2 kg/m2 (6.2) and 93% of patients were rheumatoid factor (RF) positive. More than 90% of patients received between 2 to 3 DMARDs. Significant univariate predictors of a poor RAAD score were increasing age (p = 0.001), lower education level (p = 0.019), longer disease duration (p < 0.001), longer DMARD lag (p = 0.014), lower BMI (p = 0.025), high RF titre (p < 0.001) and high ESR (p = 0.008). The multivariate regression analysis showed that the only independent significant predictors of a higher mean RAAD score were older age at disease onset (p = 0.04), disease duration (p < 0.001) and RF titre (p < 0.001). There was also a negative association between BMI and the mean total RAAD score (p = 0.049). Conclusions: Patients with longstanding established RA have more severe irreversible joint damage as measured by the clinical RAAD score, contrary to other studies in Africa. This is largely reflected by a delay in the initiation of early effective treatment. Independent of disease duration, older age at disease onset and a higher RF titre are strongly associated with more joint damage. The inverse association between BMI and articular damage in RA has been observed in several studies using radiographic damage scores. The mechanisms underlying this paradoxical association are still widely unknown but adipokines have recently been suggested to play a role. Disclosure statement: C.I. has received a research grant from the Connective Tissue Diseases Research Fund, University of the Witwatersrand. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interes